Standard - An Investment Perspective
Economics forum
Posted on Oct. 22, 2014, 11:28 a.m. by xGhostx
Admin Note: Some content in this article appears to have been inspired by Travis Allen's article, "Get While the Gettin's Good."
Hey All,
So Khans has really shaken up the price of standard. So much so that alot of people are worried about investing in any "Money Cards" at the moment not just from Khans, but from all standard sets. Let me take a moment to break down some solid investments choices for all you guys out there that like to not only play Magic, but invest in it like myself.
Khans - I have already posted a long thread in regards to what is happening with Khans at the moment. Please see that for more indepth review.
Keep - Wingmate Roc Foil Treasure Cruise Foil Dig Through Time Foil Fetchlands. These are all solid short or long term keeps if you got them.
Buy - At the moment, not much really..... The only thing I would suggest scooping up right now from Khans would be playsets of Fetches as a long term investment, but waiting a few weeks would be a better option to get rock bottom pricing.
Sell - Anything you dont need..... Seriously.
M15 Core
Keep - Stoke the Flames and maybe, MAYBE Goblin Rabblemaster Rabblemaster is the kind of guy that one bad or non-showing at a pro-tour drops him right back to $5. I am holding my 4 for now.
Buy - Nothing really at the moment.
Sell - Nissa, Worldwaker Pretty sure she is WELL past her prime to see a dip very soon.
Theros Block
Keep - There is alot to hold on to from this block. Alot of people are hoarding some key players that will see rises in price in the short term for sure or will at least hold value. Elspeth, Sun's Champion , Brimaz, King of Oreskos , Keranos, God of Storms , Courser of Kruphix and Sylvan Caryatid are all prime examples. These guys are staples and will hold close to where they currently are. Hold and dump closer to Rotation. As for Longterm investment Thoughtseize currently in the $22-$30 range, will drop a bit over the next 6 months, but come post-rotation, this is an easy $50 bill. Similar statement can be said for Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver ($12-$16 Currently)
Buy - My assumption for the largest gainer over the next month or two is Solider of the Pantheon This guy is sooooo underrated at the moment. With the Meta so "Golden" this guy is covered in Win.
Sell - Kiora, the Crashing Wave , Polukranos, Worldeater, Scry Temples, as well as the majority of the Gods. The onloy one that will see Eternal play is Keranos, God of Storms Hold on to that Gem.
Well in a nut shell that should be your biggest gainers, losers and just plain dumps from the current Standard block in my own opinion. Please comment with your own thoughts!
~Ghost
I Strongly disagree......
Khans is FULL of bulk rares that will never see play outside of budget decks and will always be more then available. Khans is on track to be the best selling set ever..... Do you really want to Horde your Ankle Shanker 's in anticipation that a pro will break him and make him spike to $10 overnight? My gut tells me dumping the 12 I have now is a better option..... Longterm, Short term, Any term......
October 22, 2014 11:42 a.m.
The problem I had was you said:
"Anything you dont need"
When fetches, treasure cruise, dig through time, and a few others have potential long term play in modern etc. So it's not 'anything', it's 'some' things.
October 22, 2014 11:50 a.m.
Fair enough,
I agree with the concept of if you are playing with the Fetchs, hold them. Same goes for Cruise, Dig's, ect. I have 8 mires for example, 4 I am holding for value return in 1.5 years'ish time from now, and 4 I am playing with. Will I dump 4 of them? If I break my Mardu deck up, possibly.
Am I playing my with Dig's at the moment? No. So I am dumping. I dont think they are going any higher then where they are right now in short to mid term. Could 5 years down the road see them be a $50 rare, of course. But the same can be said for most things.
Cruise was a MASS opened common. If you can find someone to buy them, I would sell. The best it will ever see is on lines with Delver of Secrets Flip IMO
As for foils yes they will always keep gaining value.
October 22, 2014 11:57 a.m.
The problem I have with your point ChiefBell is that right now, for the moment. Khans prices are at a high and will dip soon and be at their lowest point by summer. You sell now and can pick up things cheaper around that time. You're specifically in the long term hold area, ignoring you can make a few dollars now, restock at a lower price for the long term hold.
We have around 6 more months of drafting this set, opening a ton of the fetches and other money cards. But this window is closing. If you haven't sold by mid-November, hold on to them for the long term. By then the demand will have tapered off for players with more added to available pool and you'll only be battling speculators for the cards.
October 22, 2014 12:02 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #7
You literally just regurgitated Travis Allen's Get While The Gettins Good article he wrote today... Without giving him credit.
October 22, 2014 12:12 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #10
xGhostx you even commented at the bottom of the article...
October 22, 2014 12:16 p.m.
Hahahaha, Word for Word eh?
Considering the lions share of that article was geared towards Modern how could that be? Did he discuss things Nissa, Worldwaker and Goblin Rabblemaster ?
Or other standard staples like Kiora, the Crashing Wave and Keranos, God of Storms how about Brimaz, King of Oreskos , Stoke the Flames or Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver ?
Just because I read that article, then commented on it, then posted my take and opinon here you deem that as plagiarism? pfffffft
October 22, 2014 12:19 p.m.
The fact that we shared similar views, and did not share others just seemed to completely escape you when attempted to judge me?
October 22, 2014 12:23 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #13
I suggest opening your thread with a link to the article and purpose a discussion on the topic rather than trying to present them as your original ideas...
I know your ego is invested here but there's no need to get defensive. Give credit where credit is due and move on to sharing your opinion.
October 22, 2014 12:29 p.m.
CommanderOfBolas says... #14
Plagiarism does not have to be word for word copying. You are taking his statements and ideas and passing them off as your own. I would understand the similar thought idea if you didnt read and comment on his work first. No one is going to do anything here, its not like you are in trouble, but you lose credibility this way
October 22, 2014 12:32 p.m.
No ego stroking at all...... More along the lines of this was my personal thoughts. The fact that we shared similar views on certain areas was irrelevant.
Also the fact that he more then likely was able to obtain previous 24 hour price trends and changes faster then myself and post his article while I was long asleep dreaming on ways to increase my binders value also may have played a large role.
His article is now linked and thats fine. But I want to ensure that we are clear that I did not plagiarize this from him and that this is my thoughts, opinions and suggestions.
I read his articles frequently, and most of them are good. But he likes to target bulk buys that will obtain short - mid range small gains. I do the opposite. Small quantity buys at long term investments. We play the MTG Stocks in substantially different ways. Neither is wrong. But the fact that he has his own site to do it and that I used a a site where I am just a contributing member seems to be the difference maker here.......
October 22, 2014 12:37 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #16
I put a note at the top just to err on the side of caution.
October 22, 2014 12:41 p.m.
CommanderOfBolas Not worried about anything coming from it..... More worried about the fact that I signed up here, contribute to the site, and try to help others with what I know about the game, and the investments involved in keeping stability and long term players.
I guess for future references, if I want to be "Taken Seriously" here I will just stop posting else where.....
Again, I really find the fact that I share common ideas and thoughts with someone, that happens to post financial articles, while still disagreeing with others things they say, posting my thoughts, then having them deemed as plagiarism disturbing......
October 22, 2014 12:41 p.m.
Thank you, hopefully that puts a rest to it. In the future, I guess I will say that he inspired all of my thoughts and ideas on the financial aspect of MTG or just not post at all
/thread......
October 22, 2014 12:43 p.m.
xGhostx the difference is reputation and time in doing this. You simply don't have the same rep or known history he does. You (like me) are just some internet random speaking on a public forum anyone can write on. It does not give you credit. Your words don't give you credit when someone else with more credibility has said them. It just says you have some sense, but easily could be repeating what he said.
Maybe the way it has come to light about others saying it is the wrong way to go about this, that never mattered. What mattered is how you responded and you didn't respond with tact or assurance, just anger and frustration. That did more to damage your credibility (in my eyes) than anything else. Either way, this discussion can and should disappear and get back on topic and discuss when and what to sell of your standard junk.
October 22, 2014 12:49 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #21
I added the note as a gesture that the debate about whose ideas are whose should end. Right now, we (well, most of us) aren't accusing you of plagiarizing anything--content or ideas. However, it's best to hedge and mention the possibility because Travis does this more or less regularly and has a fair following.
While you're cultivating your own following and reputation, I highly suggest citing those more reputable figures in the field. That's how it's done in my field (academia), and it's an effective way to present yourself as a literate and trustworthy source of good information. There's no shame in declaring that you follow the work of others in the field. It's a sign that you know what you're doing.
Again, none of this is an accusation. Just some food for thought.
October 22, 2014 12:56 p.m.
Completely Understand Epochalyptik
Why not simply close this thread out? We can keep the one open regarding the Khans Market and I will just focus on there. Revisit this at a later time.....
I think this thread has gotten to far out of scope to come back.....
October 22, 2014 12:59 p.m.
So you think even the reprint TS can spike to $50 in time?
October 22, 2014 1:13 p.m.
For sure! Look at Lorwyn Seize holding strong at $50 and $250 foiled! and thats after a current in standard re-print!
Thoughtseize is nothing but value in the long term. $50 each 6 months post-rotation is a solid mark for the Theros version of this.
October 22, 2014 1:32 p.m.
CommanderOfBolas says... #25
I apologize for coming off in an accusatory manner. That was not my intention. I only meant to say that, even if you had these ideas before the other article went up, you give a lot of similar information, and should therefore cite his article as a source of info. He is a well known guy that knows what he is talking about. I am glad you decided to share this info here, I am sure it will help out a lot of people who are less familiar with the mtg "stock market." Just be sure to cite the articles that are similar to yours in the future just to be safe
October 22, 2014 4:19 p.m.
Ok, explain to me how Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver is a solid 50$ bill? It's not heavily played as is (6 decks in the past year, 4 modern, 2 legacy).. The decks that run it, run it as 1, max 2 of (shouta's sideboard for they kyota gp). The decks that do run it in modern are fringe decks (currently, mainly u/b faeries) and only one person running stoneblade has it in a deck. Based on stats from mtgtop8
I can't see this but a 5-10$ card in the next 18 months and it is no where as powerful or prolific as thougthseize (which is a 4 of in most decks that have b available to it, uusually 3 main 1 side, if not 4 main or 4 side).
October 22, 2014 4:32 p.m.
gufymike I did not say Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver would hit $50. I said Thoughtseize will hit $50 post-rotation :). I did said that Ashiok is solid investment while in standard. She is going to see play. B/U control in some aspect is going to be a thing, more then likely BUG Walkers of some form which will have a slot for Ashiok as a 3of. I would not be surprised to see her rise from her current $12-$15 to $25ish before rotation.
CommanderOfBolas Its all good. Water under the bridge.
October 22, 2014 6:59 p.m.
gufymike After review, I can see how this would be seen from the initial post..... My bad, I should have clarified. As I said, I dont think Ashiok will hit $50. I do think she is a candidate worth investing in. One strong showing at a Pro Tour event could easily push her to $25 again.
Again, sorry my bad.
October 22, 2014 7:01 p.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #29
well xGhostx I have to disagree with you. Magic is seeing some nice growth. Sure khans is being opened a ton (great) but its also being played a ton. When I look around at decks in my meta most of them are over 60% comprised of cards from khans of tarkir. Some of those cards won't hold value past rotation obviously, but Im not sure that mid-November is an acurrate time frame.Thats only another month I predict there is at least 3 new deck builds (if not more) to be discovered within that time.
This standard is one of the funnest in recent memory for a lot of players which just means khans cards will stay in high demand, probably right through the release of Fate Reforged.
October 22, 2014 9:30 p.m.
Thanks for the input! Honestly, I cant see it though. I am pretty sure most things are going to take a hit and quickly.
ChiefBell says... #2
It's bad advice to tell people to sell spare khans - particularly fetches. Sure it might be ideal in the short term, but in the long term that's pretty poor advice. If we're dealing with the next month you're correct, but if we're dealing with the next 2 years that's pretty foolish.
October 22, 2014 11:32 a.m.