Standard Values
Economics forum
Posted on June 19, 2014, 10:04 a.m. by Caligula
I'm thinking of buying a box here sometime soon, but i'm not to sure on what to pick up.
I would like to get a playset of shocklands.
but the question is, What has more value?
Return to Ravnica? or Gatecrash?
There's always Conspiracy, But I rarely draft or play EDH. So the only value there for me would be in Trades alone.
Any thought's or Opinions?
What would you choose?
Neither RTR or Gatecrash are great values to buy in boxes at this point. The few chase cards won't make up for all the bulk and other playable rares that are crashing in value with standard rotating in a few months. Your best bet is to probably wait for a box of M15 or Khans. Conspiracy is not a terrible EV box either though.
June 19, 2014 10:27 a.m.
themindbullet says... #4
If you want a playset of all the shocks then it may just be better to put your money towards those directly instead of buying a box. I know it's not as fun as buying a box but I think it makes more sense financially.
June 19, 2014 10:30 a.m.
If you must buy an rtr block box, then rtr is your go to set. The shocks in the set are more widely used, the few money cards still in the set (Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman notably) will more than likely retain their value better than either gatecrash or dragons maze, plus, the commons and uncommons are strictly better in rtr, minus maybe Boros Charm .
June 19, 2014 10:40 a.m.
GoofyFoot you make great points. I was thinking cards like Abrupt Decay and Sphinx's Revelation would go up once it rotates out into modern, Deathrite Shaman could see a jump if It ever get's unbanned. Would you agree?
themindbullet you are quite right, but there is also other cards I wouldn't mind acquiring, but most would be in RtR I guess.
But Conspiracy is almost worth it with all it's Value and the increasing popularity of EDH it might just be worth it to get a box and trade it out for Shocks +
June 19, 2014 10:49 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #7
It's definitely RTR right now for that block. It's where all the money is. DGM is awful in terms of value. You might get a Voice of Resurgence or a Blood Baron of Vizkopa , but honestly you won't get a high EV. Gatecrash is a touch better with Boros Charm , Domri Rade , and Burning-Tree Emissary . More playable cards too, like Skullcrack . But still not a great value.
M15 or Khans is a good bet if you're looking to flip stuff in the short term. I just bought a Conspiracy box for $85 and pulled easily $150 in rares (including Dack Fayden ) As more stuff gets pulled, Conspiracy values will level off, but I still think it's a good bet if you want to flip stuff.
June 19, 2014 10:56 a.m.
JakeHarlow thanks, That's the way I was looking at it.
Thanks everyone for the help.
June 19, 2014 11:15 a.m.
While RTR is most likely the best of the RTR block, there's still only like ~10 cards worth the price of a pack in the whole set. That Abrupt Decay or Deathrite Shaman is approximately 5 times more likely to be a Death's Presence or Search the City quality of card.
June 19, 2014 11:21 a.m.
Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman absolutely, but Sphinx's Revelation I severely doubt will ever go beyond $10 dollars. Abrupt Decay has done nothing but go up since theros, and Deathrite Shaman , even with the banning in modern, has only gone down by maybe a dollar or two, it's still played a lot in legacy, and people are hoping it will get an unban eventually.
themindbullet definitely has a point though. I personally have been aggressively trading to try and finish off my playsets of shocks (i'm only 10 away, and I have 2 of each at least :3 ) If you want to draft it or open with friends or draft it, go for a box, but other than that, buy singles, it's always more beneficial for you to do so.
I owned 3 Liliana of the Veil for the longest time, and took the "I'm going to buy innistrad packs until I get another one" road. I probably bought a box and a half of packs before finally pulling one. at $6 a pack, it probably would have been better to spend my money on another 3 of them. Or I could have just bought the last one, along with the 2 more Snapcaster Mage I need.
June 19, 2014 11:50 a.m.
You make a good point GoofyFoot.
But it also doesn't hurt to expand my collection (It's a little bit lacking since I got back into magic.)
How about Theros? There seems to be a few high value cards in the set. Not to mention its still fairly new so It could see some price jumps.
June 19, 2014 11:54 a.m.
themindbullet says... #12
I would hold off on buying a Theros box until we know more about the new fall set Khans of Tarkir. Once we get more info on the set and how it will impact the meta, you'll have a better idea of what your best buy will be.
June 19, 2014 11:58 a.m.
I think there is a decent amount of money cards in Theros right now. Thoughtseize is the only card that has any true value, but other Important cards beyond that are things like Swan Song (definitely a comparable counterspell) , Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx (definitely broken in EDH), Sylvan Caryatid (definitely competition for BoP, dat hexproof), Thassa, God of the Sea (best God IMO, especially because of it's color and where it can be splashed in. Purphoros, God of the Forge isn't good for burn, but it's gross withSplinter Twin combo so....), Mistcutter Hydra (super strong card, although it's value beyond standard/EDH is yet to be seen), Master of Waves (Pretty boss card, may be good in merfolk legacy/modern), Soldier of the Pantheon (SUPER STRONG turn one card), and Prophet of Kruphix (A card that already has proven her?self in EDH).
these are the cards I would say are "good" in theros, although that doesn't mean any of them will be worth anything rotating out. however, seeing as we will have theros for another year or so, It's not a bad investment. current block standard boxes retain their value for a while, if not go up.
June 19, 2014 12:12 p.m.
Thing is with coresets, the value of it goes down rather quickly and easily. Normally, only a couple cards will be considered 'playable' and used, thus gain value. And for the majority of these, once the coreset rotates, those cards that did gain value, lose it almost immediately. It is wiser to buy the singles you need from the coresets. Only draft/trade for the other stuff. Around august/september the coreset cards in demand usually will drop as the market is flooded and buyers are anticipating the next expansion. Then is the time to pick them up, try and trade for the extra's. Later on in the year (standard year), like around march/april, even up to now, june. You can sell them for a profit to buylists and so on.
In short, do not buy the coreset boxes, even if you're going to draft. For drafting with friends, buy the summer release box set (like conspiracy for this year).
Also, in terms of conspiracy only, the only real value will be in the foils... The majority of the non-foils will be inexpensive for a long, long time. The demand will go down, the printing of it isn't limited and so on.
RTR is a good pick up as a sealed product and for drafting. It's much better than gatecrash, dgm has shocks also (which those who mentioned dgm, conveniently left out). But the only real value in dgm is voice, not even bb is worth much anymore.
Ultimately, I would argue, save your money, buy the next ftv (FTV:Annilation) when it's dropped, pick up singles for the decks you want and may be worth something around that time and wait for khans.
Theros Block, Theros is the best set in the block... for value in cracking packs. Which maybe your best buy if you do it now. Though I would advise trading for the bulk and singles you want. Then buying the singles.
I have an aversion to buying to packs because of the lottery and that buying singles is the best way to get what you want (though I do usually buy a box or two on release). If you don't know what you want, don't buy anything and save your money.
FYI, The only true investments that are stable in mtg, is in the reserved list. Since wotc is very adamant in not breaking it. They are the only stable cards price wise we have. They are the blue chips of the game.
June 19, 2014 12:17 p.m.
@ Caligula
"I was thinking cards like Abrupt Decay and Sphinx's Revelation would go up once it rotates out into modern"
It is important to understand that this isn't how rotations work. Any card printed in a Standard set is automatically legal in Modern, unless explicitly banned by Wizards. So, Abrupt Decay and Sphinx's Rev are legal in modern right now, as well as legacy.
You really need to consider a few things: RTR is NO LONGER in print, and its price is adjusting accordingly. There are a lot of desirable cards in RTR for modern, which is the fastest growing format in magic. Because of this, sealed boxes of RTR are going for $115+ when you could pick them up for 90 less than 6 months ago. RTR boxes will continue to rise because of the chase modern playables. These people aren't buying boxes to open, they are buying boxes to hold onto for 10-18 months.
A lot of the value in cards in RTR is sustained by standard. Sphinx's Rev has dropped 10 bucks (almost 50% of its value) in the last 4 months. The same is true for a lot of the rares in RTR. The exception are cards that see little play in standard, and moreso in modern/legacy, which is true for Deathright Shaman and Abrupt Decay. Abrupt Decay has actually increase 2-3 bucks in the last couple months. But come rotation, the EV of RTR will plummet, and it makes no sense to buy RTR with the intention to crack it immediately. Besides, you should only buy sealed product for two reasons: 1). you want to play limited with friends. and 2). you want to hold onto it until it is no longer in print in the hopes to sell for a profit.
In summation, if you want a playset of all the shocks, buy them. Or wait until rotation when they might fall a couple bucks. Buying a box of RTR and maybe opening 2-4 shocks would be a terrible decision monetarily.
Caligula says... #2
Also, Thanks Epochalyptik for the Forum direction.
June 19, 2014 10:05 a.m.