Statistics of a Pull
Economics forum
Posted on May 25, 2015, 12:28 a.m. by Onyx_Mage
SO!!! On Friday I opened my first Modern Masters 2015 box. The initial reaction was underwhelming to say the least, no foil Goyfs, no foil Eldrazi, and no Confidant.
I opened it, somewhat Ignorant to the overall value, as I made it a point to go in as blind as possible, and my initial estimate came out to around 150$. Needless to say, I was somewhat disappointed. The goal then became to find the value of every card in the set, and compare them to what I pulled.
Wow...
These are just some statistics on my box, counting my rares, foils, and misc that are worth a dollar or more. It's worth noting that Mana Leak is format staple and is only worth 75 cents, but I pulled 5 so I packaged them together.
RARES- I got 10 rares that were worth 10 dollars or more (2 of which were foil) and 5 were worth more than 20. The ones that really put in work for me were Cryptic Command at 52.01$, Noble Hirearch at 47.63$, and Bitterblossom at 41.44$. The least valuable rare I received was Chimeric Mass coming in a whopping 28 cents. The total value of my rares combined equaled 330.07$ Not bad at all...
FOILS- Nothing major here, just a lot of 20 cent foils. There were 3 that stood out though: Cranial Plating at 13.50$, Electrolyze at 7.02$, and Thoughtcast at 10.12$. The bottom of the barrel? Goblin War Paint at 24 cents. The overall value of my foils reached 43.45$
MISC- Remand. Need I say more? There's a surprisingly large amount of dollar bulk in the set, so taking it all into account, including the bounce-lands, Eldrazi, and Bolts; the value reaches 53.68$. That's more than my bulk foils...
EVERYTHING ELSE- I took every other card in the set and put them together using some simple math. Every card is worth 10 cents (a very conservative estimate, but very easy on me thinking cap). Every card here put together came out to 29.50$.
The moment of truth! I bought a box plus a few packs, so if we're including tax, I'll round up the overall cost to 310$ flat. The value of the numbers stated above? 457.33$. That's a profit of 147.33$ I know I could never sell it for that much and I have no delusions of such, however it represents trade fodder for pretty much anything I could want. If you are looking for a card from the set, the odds are, I have it. Inquire and I will be happy to make a deal.
Thanks so much for reading, I look forward to years of fun in the modern format and beyond!
mathimus55 says... #3
With the way prices are going you need to open $400 of pre-MM15 value to have any hope of breaking even. Bitterblossom is hovering under $25 right now, heirarch probably isn't far behind.
May 25, 2015 1:14 a.m.
You have WAAAAY overvalued the actual market price of your cards.
May 25, 2015 5:33 a.m.
fluffybunnypants says... #5
What Chief said.
I like how you expected to pull a foil Goyf when that pull is a pretty low percentage.
May 25, 2015 6:51 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #6
So you're disappointed because you pulled no foil Goyfs, no foil Eldrazi, and no Confidant? I mean, they're all mythic rares, so pulling a foil of them... Good luck man...
May 25, 2015 8:51 a.m.
I pulled a foil Elesh Norn and regular Goyf :P. Both are up for trade for vendilion cliques btw ;)
May 25, 2015 8:57 a.m.
I apologize for any confusion in price or overall costs, the way I calculated it was by pulling up the alphebetical list on tappedout, organizing my cards alphebeticaly, and just going down the list writing in values, I didn't inquire further, just listed prices and moved on
May 25, 2015 10:25 a.m.
with new sets people using the mid price is extremely flawed. bitterblossom for example can hold a 35 price average b/c the first 20 stores put the prices at 35-37, but if the most current 5 have it listed at 23, 35 is nowhere near actual retail.
but all in all your box seems average. There have been many algorithms run and the EV is almost exactly MSRP on this box...with the outliers being opening foil mythics or comet storm
vishnarg says... #2
You're critically overpricing some of your pulls. Cryptic and Hierarch aren't worth anything near what you listed. Still, you got some pretty nice foils. Sounds like a decent box.
May 25, 2015 12:32 a.m.