The great Blood Moon spike of 2015....
Economics forum
Posted on June 5, 2015, 4 a.m. by TheCeltic814
What has caused this spike? To my knowledge the only decks that heavy use this card is blue moon and Skred Red but both are rarely seen.
Source:http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Modern+Masters/Blood+Moon#paper
It could always be a buyout. Have you seen how many are actually being sold on tcgplayer? Even SCG is out.
June 5, 2015 5:13 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #4
I would like to know how much a buyout like this costs. Also is it a store like SCG doing it, or an individual?
June 5, 2015 5:17 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #6
I was talking about seeing an AMA or just a post from whoever did it. Just curious on what it would take to do a buyout on a card like that. Also if stores are behind this sort of thing, or individuals.
June 5, 2015 5:22 a.m.
Sorry by the time I provided the link your message wasn't visible for me yet. My post was answering OP's question.
As for the buy-out. It's actually pretty simple. If you have a couple thousand bucks you can provoke one yourself. It has happened in the past with the infamous unbanning of Bitterblossom. Someone got insider info, bought all the Bitterblossom he could get, the wider modern playerbase caught it, jumped on the train and over night the price for 1 Bitterblossom nearly quadrupled. We're still suffering from this event as it sees close to zero play and is still way too expensive.
However this buy-out is different. Blood Moon only saw printings in pretty limited sets (even Chronicles was limited compared to todays print-runs) and is playable across all formats it's legal in. It's a very viable sideboard choice for 2 top-modern-decks and there's also a control-version that runs it mainboard. As I already said in my first post. Due to no reprint in MM2015 we won't see much supply in the future. So everyone tried to get some cheap Blood Moons as they're a very good sideboard card and who knows maybe you want to play it some day. I do however think that the current price is inflated. It will probably settle around 40$.
June 5, 2015 5:33 a.m.
Goddamn it. I passed on two $10 auctions of these less than three days ago...
June 5, 2015 5:44 a.m.
Its because people are panicked by the lack of a reprint. Remember that prices are psychological for the most part.
June 5, 2015 6:56 a.m.
fluffybunnypants says... #10
Blood Moon's price spike looks like it was possibly buyout related.
See that circled part, that's a textbook artificial price spike.
June 5, 2015 7:17 a.m. Edited.
Well something like that happened to SFM in late 2013 too, which was no sudden buyout but rather a price-correction.
June 5, 2015 7:36 a.m.
I have one from The Dark because it WAS the cheapest printing at the time. My god has that thing spiked O_O
June 5, 2015 8:06 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #13
Well it's been steadily rising over time, mostly because in this meta, it destroys Junk, Affinity, Tron, and a bunch of other decks. But the recent spike is probably because of a buyout, as Fluffy said.
June 5, 2015 8:46 a.m. Edited.
fluffybunnypants says... #15
Stoneforge Mystic I assume.
It always gets speculated on for unbanning around Modern PTs, it's actually a buyout from speculators that causes a price spike.
June 5, 2015 9:34 a.m. Edited.
Programmer_112 says... #16
@FAMOUSWATERMELON: It doesn't actually destroy Affinity. In fact, Affinity plays Blood Moon itself.
June 5, 2015 10:07 a.m.
Oh and if you're looking to buy some modern cards: Engineered Explosives is the next candidate to spike heavily. Buy them while they're cheap!
June 5, 2015 10:07 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #18
Well it certainly hurts affinity, shutting down their manlands and the drawing that they get from Thoughtcast.
June 5, 2015 10:11 a.m.
Putrefy why do you think Engineered Explosives will spike? Any data behind the guess?
June 5, 2015 10:31 a.m.
@ FAMOUSWATERMELON they still have 8 sources of blue for Thoughtcast...
June 5, 2015 10:31 a.m.
It's very good positioned against the CoCo-decks and B/G/x-mirrors. Much better than Anger of the Gods as both CoCo decks board Forgetender anyways. It also helps against Merfolk. Overall a very good card right now. And also low supply. Only MM1 and DS printings.
June 5, 2015 10:33 a.m.
Alright, any guess as to how high it could go and when?
June 5, 2015 10:35 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #23
Putrefy As far as I know, they only run 1-2 Island. 4x Glimmervoid, 4x Blinkmoth Nexus, 4x Inkmoth Nexus, and some Darksteel Citadel are all shot down by B-Moon. So Thoughtcast would probably be impossible to cast XD
June 5, 2015 10:41 a.m.
It also sees main board play in some twin decks. It also wrecks bloom titan.
June 5, 2015 10:45 a.m.
Programmer_112 says... #25
@FAMOUSWATERMELON: 4x Mox Opal, 4x Springleaf Drum is what you're missing
June 5, 2015 10:49 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #27
CoCo = Collected Company
And 4x Mox Opal is true, but I've only seen 1-2 Springleaf Drum in most lists.
June 5, 2015 10:53 a.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #29
What? 1-2 Springleaf Drum? What kind of Affinity lists have you been looking at?
June 5, 2015 11:11 a.m.
CookieJedi says... #30
Possibly dumb question here but I'm new to modern. Is Magus of the Moon an acceptable budget replacement for Blood Moon with this gigantic price spike?
June 5, 2015 11:27 a.m.
Programmer_112 says... #31
It's OK, but dying to Bolt is pretty awful. You'd probably be better off playing a deck that doesn't want Moon
June 5, 2015 11:28 a.m.
CharlesMandore says... #32
No, it dies to bolt and all other things that kill creature. Enchantments are marginally more difficult to remove.
June 5, 2015 11:28 a.m.
CookieJedi says... #34
Sure, it dies to bolt, but the decks you're siding Moon in against in the first place probably aren't running Bolts to begin with. Any BGx deck, Tron, Affinity, Hexproof, Living End, Loam Pox, Amulet Bloom. Once you drop a Magus they're pretty boned unless they already have a basic on the field. Your biggest threat at this point is a Path.
a $10 card vs a $60 card seems worth it to me as a budget place holder
June 5, 2015 11:34 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #35
Screw bolt, any kill spell would suffice. Terminate, Path to Exile, Murderous Cut, etc...
June 5, 2015 11:36 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #36
Bolt dies to negate though.
There are tons of answers, but that does not mean it is not a budget replacement.
Goyf can die to bolt, bob, even deathrite, and he got banned.
June 5, 2015 11:40 a.m. Edited.
@FAMOUSWATERMELON you're missing the part where they probably can't cast their kill spell any more due to only having red mana.
Unless they had mana open and floated it in response during your turn, but decks that tap out every turn would have problems.
June 5, 2015 11:42 a.m.
CookieJedi says... #38
Blood Moon dies to removal too. Abrupt Decay, Krosan Grip, Naturalize, etc.
June 5, 2015 11:45 a.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #40
Abrupt Decay is the only one of those that sees wide play.
Magus of the Moon is just fine for a budget alternative. But you always need to be aware that, since it is more susceptible to removal it will be removed ASAP.
One of the things that makes Blood Moon so good is that red in Modern has no way to remove enchantments. So if you're able to lock them into red, Blood Moon is sticking around while Magus of the Moon could still eat a Pyroclasm.
June 5, 2015 11:49 a.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #41
Krosan Grip and Naturalize aren't really played, usually 1-2 copies in the side. Abrupt Decay hits everything, enough said.
June 5, 2015 12:15 p.m.
I would like to point out that any deck with a ton of fetchlands and Abrupt Decay doesn't actually auto fold to Blood Moon in the way that it has been described here.
Putrefy - Why is Engineered Explosives good in the BG/x mirror? They have permanents at every cmc point - 2, 3, 4, etc. It seems pretty lacklustre. I don't know what Jund v Jund does, but Abzan v Abzan or Abzan v Jund does Sigarda because hexproof and 5/5
June 5, 2015 1:52 p.m.
Sigarda honestly is only a problem if you haven't overwhelmed your opponent already. She's not winning you the game when you're behind, I'm not a huge fan of her. I like to bring in EE against Abzan because I can blow up souls and keep my Maelstrom Pulse for Siege Rhino. Also if they don't know you have it the may overextend and play Ooze + Goyf. Every 2-for-1 you can get is super crucial in this matchup.
As a matter of fact and from experience I can say: Blood Moon is a retarded Magic card. Especially if you run it in a control-version with Spreading Seas. T2 spreading seas your basic, T3 blood moon you. Any responses? Yeah: well played, super skillintensive. Please wizards ban blood moon, thanks.
June 5, 2015 2:05 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #44
Banning might be a bit extreme... it's one of the only mono-red cards that's actually good, Twin and Burn spells put aside.
Putrefy says... #2
It has always been a very good sideboard card. Also everyone was expecting another reprint in MM2015 so the price was kept steady. After we learned there was no reprint in MM2015 it's clear there won't be a reprint for at least another 2 years. I doubt Blood Moon will ever be printed in a Standard legal Set again. So the next time will be MM3 which should come out in 2017 (if they keep up the 2-year-rhythm), which makes it a very safe investment.
June 5, 2015 4:14 a.m.