The next black lotus?
Economics forum
Posted on Jan. 14, 2014, 7:33 p.m. by Arorsthrar
Almost all magic players are familiar with the notorious Black Lotus , and one day, when my friends and I were talking about it, we wondered if there are any cards they though we eventually become extremely expensive (in 10 years or so). Just for fun, what cards (that are in STANDARD right now) do you think will eventually rise in price? (We seemed to think that Mutavault andThoughtseize are the best candidates). What do you guys think?
(I'm not asking to begin stocking up or anything, just wanted to see what other people think are the truly "iconic" mtg cards).
mutavault was a reprint and was in modern tribal (merfolk, elves, faeries) around 14.00 so it's probably not a good candidate to rise with or after rotation
January 14, 2014 7:50 p.m.
Bobgalarneau says... #4
My bet is on Chromatic Lantern , if EDH keeps getting more and more popular, and if we do not get a reprint.
It's realy hard to predict, 10 years is 30 expansion sets, 10 core sets and a lot of sealed reprint products..... Anything could happen......
January 14, 2014 7:58 p.m.
Arorsthrar says... #6
I thought this would be a fun thread and as a new magic player I wanted to almost get an analogy for a black lotus in standard. How does it make you sad Epochalyptik? Sorry if it offends you or something.
January 14, 2014 8:03 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #7
It doesn't offend me, but the conceptual comparison between Black Lotus and anything else (except maybe miscut signed Alpha cards, or other cards of similar rarity) is just... interesting. I've seen too many serious threads comparing Lhurgoyf to Tarmogoyf to determine whether or not something is in jest.
I think it would be best to just ask what Standard cards might rise in value. Good intentions, strange comparison. Don't take it seriously (my comment, that is).
Anyway, Mutavault and Thoughtseize are the go-to value cards, but they're both reprints. There are some notable cards around Standard, but nothing I see skyrocketing.
January 14, 2014 8:07 p.m.
If anything it would be Deathrite Shaman Even then it's a stupid comparison...
January 14, 2014 8:15 p.m.
What are you talking about Epochalyptik? Lhurgoyf
can get SOO MUCH BIGGER than Tarmogoyf
can!
In all seriousness, I agree that Black Lotus was probably a bad card for your comparison. It might have been better to ask which cards in RTR or Theros will retain their value like cards from 10 years ago, e.g. Onslaught and Mirrodin block. So your choices probably are Chrome Mox , Gilded Lotus , Goblin Piledriver , or the Onslaught fetches (like Polluted Delta ) if you want to speculate on monetary value.
January 14, 2014 8:22 p.m.
fluffybunnypants says... #10
While dumb shit happens (when I first quit, Lion's Eye Diamond was a trash rare, I come back and it's $80-$100), there are a couple things to keep in mind when attempting to make that comparison. Primarily the fact that there are so few still around, let alone in good condition and the fact that WIzards has it on the will-not-be-re-printed list so the supply is permanently static, if not diminishing.
January 14, 2014 9:02 p.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #11
Deathrite Shaman can be expected to rise in value once he's out of print. He sees a lot of play in Modern and Legacy, and the only thing keeping his price in check is his relatively decent availability.
Snapcaster Mage from the last Standard block could potentially see a price rise in the future if more decks take to using it in eternal formats. He's clearly wicked strong.
January 14, 2014 9:10 p.m.
DRS and Abrupt Decay
. Where was mutavault $14? Everyone ik says it was $40 before the reprint so im kinda curious as this is the only place I ever constabtly hear about it being under $15.
There are other fringe cards but those 2 are 4 ofs in basicallu every deck in color.
January 14, 2014 9:28 p.m.
ColdHeartedSith says... #13
Is constabtly a word?-- Moved to wise cracks--
January 14, 2014 9:41 p.m.
Probably. Tapped out mobile doesnt like my spelling lol
January 14, 2014 9:43 p.m.
if you check history of card prices on http://www.mtgprice.com you can compare most major retailers.
if you look at mutavault for the entire year of 2012 you can see its online retail price was mid 20's and ebay price average was 16.99
i guess our local shops had it a bit cheaper in 14-17 range.
January 14, 2014 10:28 p.m.
using ebay and tcg prices. don't really pay much attention to higher priced retailers **
January 14, 2014 10:32 p.m.
scottemery says... #17
Plain and simply shocks, there will not be a time (unless duals are reprinted, highly unlikely) where they do not see play or are not in high demand.
January 16, 2014 1:26 p.m.
Assuming more reprints of the shocks in 5-10 years, means shock value will not rise consistently like some of the other things mentioned. Because of the demand and need for them in modern and they are after the reserved list, I see WoTC reprinting them every so often to keep with demand.
January 16, 2014 1:32 p.m.
Grove of the Burnwillows is only seeing play in a few decks, it's not cost prohibitive yet, but I expect it to see a reprint again also.
January 16, 2014 2 p.m.
The only recently printed card that comes close to power-nine level prices is foil Jace, the Mind Sculptor . To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if it continues to go up in price, especially if they limit printing him to special sets.
January 17, 2014 1:13 a.m.
scottemery says... #22
Yes there is Grove of the Burnwillows but the others also will most likely delay the reprints of shocks for a long time. Hoping for a River of Tears set.
January 17, 2014 3:28 a.m.
aeonstoremyliver says... #23
Dude, the stuff on the Reserve List is totally incomparable to anything in Standard... But I do see your point in speculation.
When I see a new set, I'm eager to point out what could be played in the Eternal formats, Modern, Legacy, and Vintage. We're seeing many Standard cards in Modern and Legacy already. Namely Deathrite Shaman , Abrupt Decay , Thoughtseize , Mutavault , the Shocklands, Thassa, God of the Sea , Boros Charm , Rakdos Charm , and Pithing Needle . Many of the aforementioned cards are reprints, which will go for less than the original printing.
As previously mentioned, many cards have been printed aeons ago and had no use until future synergies emerged. Other cards are spoiled from new sets and are pre-sold for a higher value than they will ever see again. Unless a card will be playable in Modern and Legacy, a high value during the Standard rotation won't last. Thundermaw Hellkite and Bonfire of the Damned , respectively.
In any case, my guess would be that Deathrite Shaman would be the allstar after it rotates.
January 17, 2014 3:48 a.m.
nobu_the_bard says... #24
It's hard to know, 10 years from now, what will be valuable, because the value of the cards is determined partly by how they interact with what comes in the future.
If nothing else Black Lotus already has "most famous/expensive card" status and even if it somehow lost its utility, the price would probably not fall so low as nearly any other given card, because of its fame alone.
January 17, 2014 3:54 p.m.
Nightstlkr says... #25
TBH, theres no chance of any standard card to becoming extremely expensive; or at least anywhere near that level. if you think about the cards that are so sought after, theyre cards that are either must 4 ofs, or much older. theres probably hundreds of thousands of copies of every rare in standard right now, so even something like Deathrite Shaman to become that expensive isnt going to happen i dont think. unless magic explodes in popularity where that number isnt much.
I'd say $75 is going to be the most a card gets unless theres a massive resurgence, or legacy and modern become the only played format.
January 17, 2014 7:25 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #26
I think the reserve list holds a different kind of value. Things not on that list will always be able to be reprinted. This possibility will create a divide in prices. Add on that those cards were not seen as potential big money when they first came out. This means alot of them were played hard. Limited number + never gonna happen again + many not surviving = mo money.
As long as this game survives, those cards will be worth more and more. Eventually they might drop significantly in value, but that would not happen until the game collapses. I do not see that happening any time soon, but most things do have a shelf life. I am pretty sure we will live to see what it is.
January 27, 2014 11:46 a.m.
Though these cards aren't in standard (SORRY! I'm breaking the rules). Some cards of earlier sets that only have one printing are going up in price. Stoneforge Mystic tripled in price, it was $10 when I got mine. Wurmcoil Engine also went up about 8-10 dollars.
Both are EDH staples as well.
January 27, 2014 5:37 p.m.
I am interested to see where Boros Reckoner goes when Rakdos Minotaurs become a thing.
January 27, 2014 5:56 p.m.
Nightstlkr says... #30
i dont think RB minotaurs will in standard. theres really only Boros Reckoner Fanatic of Mogis and Kragma Warcaller Rageblood Shaman that might see play, and any deck that focuses on a concentration of spells wont be too relevant. monoB control, B/X control, and B/R/X midrange are going to be too prevalent of decks for this to work. and even if you can get that concentration, something like the R/G monsters deck or monoU devotion just explode into so much more lethal stuff that efficient minotaurs.
as far as modern goes, i dont play it so i have no clue in that realm.
January 27, 2014 6:09 p.m.
lookoutimscary says... #31
I went to an FNM, and there's this guy who is always there and he had his cube all set up and was inviting people to play. ANYWAYSSS he had two Black Lotus s, and one was signed!!! I later realized this dude had the Power Nine.
Bobgalarneau says... #2
Nothing in standard, or modern, will become extremely expensive.... Not on the black lotus scale......
What makes black lotus and other members of the P9 so expensive is not just the fact that they are good card, the are also super rare, almost i possible to find in good condition
If you want to speculate on the price of thebest cards of current standard 10 years from now, compare them to the good cards that were printed 10 years ago.
You can't compare oranges and diamonds, it's not even 2 fruits...
January 14, 2014 7:42 p.m.