The Value of Cavern of Souls
Economics forum
Posted on May 22, 2013, 2:10 p.m. by Schuesseled
Will it increase or decrease, as printing stops and later rotates out?
Is it seeing enough play in modern and legacy to make it a good idea to get sooner rather than later?
Thing is RedCloud2012 is your speculating like an expert with a lack of knowledge on the actual decks. The lack is based on the statement 'need 3 to 4 caverns to be effective in the metagame', which is false, things like AEther Vial are used for the same purpose as caverns and do not hurt the mana base. In merfolk I run 2 caverns and 4 vials. But I'm thinking that may be 2 too many caverns because of Wasteland and Mutavault taking up 8 land slots alone, which I want more, and hurting my colored production for things like Spell Pierce , Daze , Ponder , Brainstorm and Standstill early game. 11-12 islands and 10 colorless means more mulligans, just for an island, which I want turn 1., more than I want cavern. It is not that amazing to want more lands instead of spells. Remember both the vials and caverns are just as easily destroyed in legacy., but you can protect vial easier. Don't get me wrong I think caverns is a great card but I think there are better options in tribal builds, especially with the low cost of the spells in legacy
December 1, 2013 3:35 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #3
@RedCloud2012: I don't target users unless it's for account suspension or deletion (in which case I merely track his or her activity for signs of banworthy offenses). I'm not targeting you, and I'd prefer if you didn't constantly accuse me of trolling you every time I bring up a counterargument to one of your posts. Also, I brought this thread back up because I noticed Cavern of Souls and thought this thread relevant again because rotation happened just recently.
In page 1, post 3, you specifically said "I think in 5 years it will be 250.00 and 500.00 in foil." This statement is patently false and is a gross exaggeration of market trends. You also offered the opinion that Cavern of Souls is "the best land ever printed so far" (1:7) - a statement that indicates you're probably basing your speculation on how impressed you are by the card rather than how it actually fits into the meta and the market.
Thus far, you have yet to make any credible and supported speculations. Even your most recent guess of $50 (which is different from your earlier $250 mark) is well off base. Let's consider the evidence, yet again. Cavern of Souls is not more prolific than Wasteland or the fetch lands in terms of deck composition. It is more available than both Wasteland and the fetch lands. Additionally, it is not a universal staple. So, by process of comparison (and even in a vacuum), there's currently nothing to support the argument that Cavern of Souls will rise to $50.
December 1, 2013 3:59 p.m.
the3rdH0kage says... #4
Why is this argument going on still, RedCloud2012 , Epochalyptik was correcting you on your guess on what Cavern of Souls would be. You were wrong, and he was just giving reasoning for why Cavern of Souls will never hit $250.00. Besides that prediction was way wrong, Wasteland is a answer to Cavern and is at $70.00 right now because it is a Legacy staple. Odds are if Cavern was going to be a 4-of in all Legacy decks then it would become a Legacy staple right after it was printed or at the very least right before RTR was released. You don't need to be getting so defensive, Epochalyptik was just trying to help and you were taking it as a insult. He is the one with experience, and obviously you are not. You don't need to be thinking he is insulting you, I would take what he says as advice, and my last bit, next time you want to make a prediction, try researching the card and if it is seeing play, (you can use SCG, MTGtop8, and there are quite a few other sites that can help you). ok rant over
December 1, 2013 6 p.m.
Cavern of Souls will never hit $50.
Show and Tell is currently sitting at about $56 average and it is a very popular Legacy card that sees quite a bit of play in competitive.
Cavern of Souls however, does not.
December 1, 2013 6:22 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #6
If we were to speculate...
A set could come about in the future that will cause this card to trend up. It is the kind of card that if something were printed, it could go to 30 40 or 50. It would take something powerful, and at least modern worthy to accomplish this. I do not think this will happen, but it could.
Most likely with the way things are, this card will be around 5 or 6 when it rotates out. This is what I think will happen.
December 1, 2013 6:35 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #7
@Jacques:
I haven't run the numbers, so I can't say for certain whether Show and Tell
sees more play than Cavern of Souls
. I can, however, vouch for the fact that Cavern of Souls
sees play in a wider range of decks. The general availability of Cavern of Souls
counteracts that demand, though.
@Didgeridooda:
Cavern of Souls
already rotated out, and I don't anticipate it dropping that much. While the Standard stock is flooding the market right now (comparatively speaking), Cavern of Souls
does already see play in other formats. It doesn't see the kind of play that will carry its price upward, but it certainly sees enough to make Cavern of Souls
stay in the $8-15 range for a little while. We'll only know for certain in a little while, but Cavern of Souls
definitely ranks as a solid card.
It would take something that would put a new tribal deck on the map. The existing tribal decks are fairly consistent in terms of their construction, and the tribal archetypes (the ones that see competitive play) already run a "set" number of Cavern of Souls . Most run fewer copies because they need to produce colored mana for non-creature spells more than they need the on-color mana and uncounterability for creature spells.
December 2, 2013 5:27 a.m.
Epochalyptik when you've got time, look at AEther Vial vs Cavern of Souls in the tribal decks. AEther Vial is a 10$ card (non-foil) currently (thank you modern masters), but it was up there for a bit. What I'm getting at is that Cavern of Souls while good, will not see play like AEther Vial if any tribal comes into play that means something. the 1-3 drops are what make it in these decks most of the time and the vial is good enough to handle it. This doesn't mean Cavern of Souls is bad, it just means there is a better option. Even goblins and elves run the vial over souls most of the time, because of Wasteland , Tectonic Edge (modern) and Mutavault being more valuable than cavern.
December 2, 2013 5:37 a.m.
Epochalyptik says... #9
@gufymike: I'll have to check numbers later, but you bring up a good point. AEther Vial also sees play in other lists, especially in Modern, because it doesn't commit to a single creature type and because it isn't as vulnerable to removal. Still, Cavern of Souls remains a backup card in many decklists, even as a one-of or two-of.
We'll have to watch the Modern and Legacy metas in the coming months, but I'm growing less and less convinced Cavern of Souls will even clamber back up to the $20 mark. There's no way it can really go higher than that at this point.
December 2, 2013 5:44 a.m.
Yes. If people start playing 4x Cavern of Souls in all their Modern, Legacy, and Vintage decks, of course it will go up. If the eternal formats started playing 4x anything the prices of that thing would probably rise.
When was the last time Legacy Slivers made any sort of noticeable non-fringe showing?
Think about it though, even during the end of the Standard season when Cavern was legal, people were already playing less of them. Except maybe in the Naya Blitz deck. Other decks ran 1 or 2 tops. If they felt comfortable with it to mess up their mana.
December 2, 2013 10:06 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #11
I just read the title, then the card. Who necroed this thread, and why then?
December 2, 2013 10:14 a.m.
Schuesseled says... #13
I don't know why anyone would want to necro this. However I can conclude the thread right now by saying after comparing eBay prices then and now, they are selling at the same price. So it wouldn't have mattered had i not got my three copies earlier as I chose to do so.
Thanks for all your comments.
RedCloud2012 says... #1
I meant my speculation on cavern wasnt to go over 50.00 before 5 years out of standard is up.
December 1, 2013 3:15 p.m.