thing in the ice price dropped by $8.00
Economics forum
Posted on April 11, 2016, 10:31 a.m. by demonicgrizzly
just a few days after release
anyone have any ideas why? do you think it will climb back up? if it keeps dropping i will be nabbing a playset and hanging onto them
It's basic economics, there are now more Thing in the Ice Flip thaN there are people who want Thing in the Ice Flip. It was never going to be a $20 card whIle it was in Standard.
April 11, 2016 10:40 a.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #4
i was banking on the hype dropping off as well, as i do with most new releases. i want to try it as a secondary wincon in a modern burn deck, i think it can easily flip and attack by turn 4, maybe even turn three with the right deck.
same thing with Westvale Abbey Flip
April 11, 2016 10:40 a.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #7
i have an idea why it will be capriom85, but what is your opinion on it?
April 11, 2016 11:12 a.m.
Thing or Abbey?
I assume Thing in the Ice Flip is going to see Modern and Legacy play. The payoff is absolutely bonkers and those formats have incredibly effective, efficiently costed instant/sorcery spells. This guy can flip so easy there will be a period of time that says "play Thing in the Ice Flip or build against Thing in the Ice Flip".
My spec on Westvale Abbey Flip is another instance of payoff. It's harder to see where this will end up format wise, but someone is going to break this bounce effects will be claiming 2-3 slots in sideboards across the format it sees play in. I'm assuming Standard will see its share, but I also think eternal formats will figure out just how to use Westvale Abbey Flip. I thought tokens or Soul Sisters in modern but that's not the home. I think maybe we will end up with a new deck that plays it.
What were your thoughts, demonicgrizzly?
April 11, 2016 11:23 a.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #9
my thought for Thing in the Ice Flip is about the same. there are so many cheap spells in legacy and modern that it will be the turn two play for any deck running blue. i mean hell - you can drop it turn two, exile a Simian Spirit Guide or two for some Lightning Bolts!, and flip it turn three. it's a shame it can be Abrupt Decay'd though.
my spec for Westvale Abbey Flip is that it will see play in b/w tokens for sure, maybe even an elf deck that just spams elves and then flips abbey?
i am wondering if it will drop any more, or if i should just snag them now?
April 11, 2016 11:30 a.m.
Yea, Thing will definitely be a thing (pun intended) but gets hosed by a lot. There are easy 1 mana counters to protect it though.
Abbey, I say hold off. I predict a dip in price further down from $15 before someone amkes it legit. The problem with Bw tokens is that by the time you have 5 tokens on the board you are probably trading a board state of 5 2/2s or better for the 9/8 that can be hoses by Vapor Snag. You sacrifice a winning bird state in tokens to get one bomb that is somewhat fragile. I think he is a win more token card. Same for Soul Sisters. You'd sac the same winning board state to bring out a fragile win more play.
It's a 6 mana investment and 5 creatures. It's a no brainer in EDH or even Standard, but Modern and Legacy need to figure this one out still. I'm trolling the cardpools to find the answer. What Westvale Abbey Flip really wants is a spell that reads "transform target permanent".
April 11, 2016 11:38 a.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #11
what does westvale abbey do with manifest?
if i manifest abbey...it's "face down as a 2/2" but won't it technically have it's flip side showing?
April 11, 2016 11:46 a.m.
Thing in the Ice Flip already has a built in meta-counter when it comes to modern. If a deck featuring Thing in the Ice Flip became popular enough that the meta would have to prepare for it then that just means more B/G/x decks will start showing up. Abrupt Decay will naturally keep Thing in the Ice Flip in check and it's just natural for more B/G/x decks to show up in response because of it.
Plus, in my opinion spamming spells early and flipping it early has minimal pay off, yes you end up with a 7/8 but it cost you 5 cards from hand (Thing and the four spells to remove counters) and if your flipping it consistently turn 3/4 like you think you can then there are only a handful of decks that have a large enough boardstate by then to make it worth spending 5 spells out of hand (it ends up as a 5 for 2 or 5 for 3 that leaves you with a 7/8). And I'm not poo-pooing a 7/8 that can attack the turn it flips, but it is an extremely large investment in order to get it to flip and even then it's not any better protected than it was before. Those same bounce spells you guys mentioned holding back Westvale Abbey Flip are just as effective against Thing in the Ice Flip. Like I said it's a large investment in order to flip it, so having it bounced once it does flip and having to reinvest in it after you've already dumped your hand is not likely going to happen very easily.
April 11, 2016 12:32 p.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #14
thanks lemmingllama
abenz419 i think the only deck that will really not care about spamming spells to flip it right away is burn.
you basically dump your hand as fast as you can in burn anyway, so having the ability to burn an opponent of a ton of life and then attack with a 7/8 on turn three...that looks and sounds like great game plan to me.
April 11, 2016 12:46 p.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #15
and if it does get bounced, a good burn deck should be able to just kill you anyways on turn 4 or 5, so it's not even necessary
April 11, 2016 12:47 p.m.
Except, a burn deck would have to find room for it. Yeah they spam a lot of spells, but do they want to take a turn off to play Thing? It doesn't do anything for them when they play it and actually makes their clock longer because of taking a turn off. Not to mention, you say "a good burn deck should be able to kill you on turn 4 or 5 so it's not necessary", if that's the case why would burn go out of their way to include it in the first place?
Sure, burn seems like a fun place to put it but in reality all it does to the deck is slow it down and make it less consistent. They're either wasting a turn to play it slowing them down or it's irrelevant when it flips because you were going to kill them anyways. So while it looks like fun, it's just not something burn wants/needs so burn is most likely not going to be where Thing ends up except in casual circles.
April 11, 2016 1 p.m.
I could see this as a 1-2 of in Storm. If someone drops Leyline of Sanctity and you didn't side in against it, you at least still have a wincon to fall back to instead of insta-scooping.
April 11, 2016 1:12 p.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #18
Doesn't Storm just use Empty the Warrens for that purpose?
April 11, 2016 1:44 p.m.
Yes. But I know a couple decks that run it MB. But even then it gets around counter flux or other things like that
April 11, 2016 2:44 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #20
It works in Horror Tribal and I could see it in a UB/r build as well. Grixis Control but not Grixis Control of that makes sense.
April 11, 2016 3:06 p.m.
Let's clear one thing up here. Thing in the ice is not going to be a legacy staple. Combo decks don't care about it, midrange decks won't want to play it and can easily kill it, aggro decks (as far as aggro decks exist in the format) will out race it, and the only control deck i can see running this is miracles. And even then, monastery mentor is just better in that deck. This is not going to take over legacy, at all.
As far as modern goes, who knows. Card is fine. But it's nowhere near busted.
April 11, 2016 3:14 p.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #22
i dunno it's still early to tell. i know i want it in my modern BUG toughness deck though
April 11, 2016 3:47 p.m.
It's interesting how everyone focuses on how "easily" TitI can be flipped while paying no regard to the plethora removal in the format. Abrupt Decay was mentioned, but Terminate and Path to Exile are rampant. It takes such a heavy investment of resources and requires to be built around that I just don't see TitI being a thing.
I mean, I hope I'm wrong cuz I would LOVE to 1 for 5 people on the regular, but I just don't see that happening.
April 11, 2016 4:48 p.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #24
the same thing can be said about goyf, and its a $200 card.
the fact that it can be easily removed is moot. thing dies to just as many things as goyf does
i wonder if it suffers the same ailment as Phyrexian Obliterator does. that card seems epic, buuuuuuut nobody plays it competitively, yet somehow it's still 30 bucks. having the illusion of being a great card but requiring a very specific set of cards to support it's existence in a deck
April 11, 2016 5:21 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #25
Obliterator Rock is a competitive deck. Does rather well I might add.
April 11, 2016 5:30 p.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #26
I know of the deck, but when was the last time we saw it top 8 anything?
April 11, 2016 5:34 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #27
According to Mtgtop8 07/03/15
http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=9485&d=254440&f=MO
April 11, 2016 6:57 p.m.
Comparing TitI to Goyf is just wrong. Goyf benefits from your opponents graveyard as well as your own. It can apply pressure the turn after it comes down without being built around. It gets better by just playing the game - its a good card no matter how you cut it because it synergizes with whatever else you're doing. Everything dies to hard removal - I was just reminding everyone that TitI is no exception. Im not really seeing a UR burn deck running it because Naya or Boros is just better - adding blue deck manipulation and counters just diluted the strategy. My buddy plays burn, and he laughed at the idea of turn 2 TitI over Eidolon and other powerful plays.
Obliterator costs 
which makes it incredibly hard to reliably cast outside of Mono Black (small splashes are fine, as Apple mentioned). The price tag is because it has been printed once at Mytic in an older set and there was a lot of hype surrounding Theros and devotion strategies. Due to the card being older it has never "recovered" in price, if you will.
April 11, 2016 7:05 p.m.
@demonicgrizzly your comparison to Tarmagoyf when it comes to removal is wrong. It doesn't matter if it dies to the same removal as Thing in the Ice Flip because it only cost a 1 time investment of 2 mana and in modern goyf's ability isn't really build around as it's naturally fueled by what the format does so it can fit into literally any deck playing green. Literally the exact opposite is true for Thing. While essentially every deck has some type of instant or sorcery card(s), not many run enough to consistently be able to flip it regularly when they want. This means you have to actively build your deck with that thought in mind and then it just sits on the board until you invest another 4 cards out of your hand.... and then it still dies to all the same removal (Abrupt Decay, Path to Exile, even bounce spells are a huge draw back for thing). That means when your opponent kills your Goyf they're getting a 1 for 1 which means you lost nothing in card advantage and forced them to answer a threat... when they kill your Thing they're getting a 5 for 1 after you dump your hand to flip it making you rely off of what is essentially top decks for the rest of the game. That's why Goyf is a $200 card and Thing is dropping like a rock now that pre-release hype is dying off.
April 11, 2016 7:18 p.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #30
I don't mean to compare it in card quality like that - to say that it dies to removal is dumb, because literally everything dies to some form of removal. Goyf dies to doom blade. Thing in the ice dies to doom blade. Dude said, quote: "it's interesting how everyone focuses on how easily thing flips while paying no regard to the plethora of removal in the format." That is why I said that the fact that it gets removed easily is moot. Because it really is.
Once again, Like I mentioned once before - I'm not saying that it's going to be a fantastic modern staple. I'm just saying the card has been legal for what, three days? And it's an interesting card, and it's interesting that it was so hyped and it has nearly halved in price in three days.
And secondly, if you don't focus on spamming spells, thing works the same way. Goyf rewards you for playing the game. You load your yard and get a big fat dude in return. Same thing can be said about thing if you extract the idea of spamming spells to flip it early. Thing in the ice can becomes a nice big fatty just by playing the game, but doesn't rely on or benefit from your opponent also playing the game. Thing in the ice has that downside, that when it dies, you have to start over.
Like I said - I am not comparing it to goyf or trying to say its anywhere in the same league. All I am saying is that it has upsides and downsides, just like all cards. I'm not saying that a blue red burn deck is going to be a thing, but it's one possibility, and for people like me who can't afford to blow 800 bucks on a set of giyfs have to get creative, I gotta be creative. that's all I am saying,
April 11, 2016 9:17 p.m.
Thing does nothing offensively until flipped, Goyf does. I did mention how it seems like everyone was forgetting about removal, because there was all this talk about "spam your spells, flip and win!" And that simply isn't the case. I also followed it up by saying "It takes such a heavy investment of resources and requires to be built around" - consider that in the context of the removal. You focus on flipping and lose all your "investment" the moment it dies. I think you have the right idea to throw it in a shell that wants to cast a bunch - let it sit and block while you throw other threats, opponent is forced to deal with the immediate threats as well as inevitable TitI.
I'm not saying you shouldn't brew with it, I'm just contesting the points that were made previously. I'm also on mobile and I feel like for whatever reason I'm incapable of making a decent post on my phone, sorry for being a little scattered.
April 11, 2016 9:32 p.m.
demonicgrizzly says... #32
I guess I shouldn't have focused so much on the speed at which you can flip it. Yes, it can be flipped right away. However, doing so is an all in, glass cannon strategy.
In the right shell it can and will be good, but it's too early to say. So that is why I'm trying to figure out if it's worth grabbing or if it will just be a dud casual card.
April 11, 2016 9:48 p.m.
Based on what's happening I would definitely say wait to pick it up. I think a lot of people are going to be bummed that the hype-train never left the station and it will continue to drop. I think it'll settle around a buck and that's when I'd pick some up. I was thinking of doing some speculating too, but certainly won't pull the trigger until it's <$1.
April 11, 2016 10:04 p.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #34
If you want to flip quick and not make it completely useless if it gets bounced/path'd etc. Thing in the Ice Flip plays nice with Death's Shadow and phyrexian mana cards.
April 11, 2016 10:11 p.m.
Lastdaysgunslinger says... #36
Its still sitting around 10.00 on ebay.Id pay 10.00 for a playset lol.Its the hype train chuga chuga
April 12, 2016 1:35 p.m.
apple41792 says... #37
I really like it in my Delver strategy where I already was playing about 25 instants and sorceries.
I also just play the game and when it flips it flips. Also if my opponent is busy dealing with Delver, young pyro, and flip jace (all like instants and sorceries) then when it flips. It puts them on a clock.
It is also a 0/4 so it does avoid bolt and blocks well until it flips.
April 14, 2016 9:28 p.m.
@apple41792 Wouldn't you be better off using the slots Thing in the Ice Flip would take up with stuff that actually effects the game when you play it, instead of wasting it on something that doesn't even actually advance your game plan and probably flips the turn your gonna win anyways? Remember in order to put it in you have to take something out (unless your playing more than 60 cards mainboard). So what do you take out.... delver, young pyro, jace??? Maybe some of your 25 instant and sorceries that everything in the deck relies on? Sure it sounds nice, but it doesn't actually help the deck accomplish anything it wants to do and requires you to remove other key pieces of the deck to fit it in.
It's like when someone suggested it in a burn deck before. Sure casually it sounds like fun, but in a competitive environment the deck is just faster and more consistent without it. The matches that Thing wins you the game are going to be matches your already way ahead, and there will be matches you lose where you'll be a turn behind and having a more proactive card (for your strategy) in the deck would have been better than having Thing.
April 14, 2016 9:49 p.m.
apple41792 says... #39
Disn't have to remove anything. Have 4 Delver 2 Jaces (added in after thing) 2 young pyro 3 snaps 1 tasigur and 3 things.
Then have 4 remands 4 bolts 3 terminate 2 commands. Everything grixis usually runs.
And the deck is tempo so play it turn 2 control they play game on their turn and just let the counters come off.
canterlotguardian says... #2
Thing in the Ice Flip
It was all hype anyways. Hype very rarely translates into long-term value post-release. I figured this was going to happen. That's why I didn't preorder the one I need for my Jalira, Master Polymorphist EDH deck, because I knew it was going to drop like a rock now that hype is settling down and these things are getting opened 100 times an hour.
April 11, 2016 10:35 a.m. Edited.