Economics forum
Posted on Jan. 26, 2016, 1:43 p.m. by TMBRLZ
So I bought a playset off a friend at my LGS last night for $50 store credit. SCG currently puts them at $15/per.
What do you guys think the prospects are for Mr. TKS?
I feel like he is hell bent on going up in price as he seems incredibly viable in both Modern and Standard.
Do you guys think there's a potential we'll see any of these Eldrazi rares in one of the eternal formats?
While we're on it - what do you guys think about Reality Smasher?
I already am conscious of the overwhelming power of these cards. I've watched them do work in both Standard and Modern already. The question that really stands is will TKS and RS be accepted into the meta world gracefully or be rampant for a few weeks before we drift back into the norm?
Feed me your mental wanderings and ponderings.
Depends on how well these eldrazi decks do in modern and In my opinion they are going to do extremely well! The deck basically runs 4x ancient tombs for your creatures and mishra's workshop whenever you have eye of ugin and urborg out at the same time so the deck has HUGE potential. I believe the eldrazi decks will make a huge impact in the format and TKS will be an absolute staple in every iteration of the deck. If eldrazi does well at the pro tour I could see TKS being around $20 a piece.
January 26, 2016 3:41 p.m.
I was testing with thought knot yesterday. And the amount of times where he resolves and the game ends when running Bx eldrazi is insane. His ability along with him being a 4/4 body is such a momentum swing it's insane since he dodges a decent amount of common removal. I have him staying minimum 15 dollars long term. Eldrazi modern decks I think are incredibly efficient for modern right now.
January 26, 2016 3:49 p.m.
Interesting contrast in opinions there. I appreciate your input and viewpoints Serendipitous_Hummingbird. Great point about the duel deck as well. I could definitely seeing one or the other showing up in a duel deck somewhere down the line.
At the same time though, the utter speed of TKS in Modern is something you didn't really hit on, as the others pointed out.
You have Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple to make both TKS and RS turn 2 playable and both those lands at four of in an efficient colorless deck make the whole strategy entirely viable and dangerous.
I feel colorless decks in general should be feared and have plenty of innovation room. There's a guy at my LGS who just got into Magic and I made him a Modern (although most of the cards were Oath and BFZ) Rakdos Eldrazi deck in about 10 minutes just throwing together a bunch of two and three drop devoid creatures and then slipping in his one of copies of TSK, RS, and Matter Reshaper and then some removal.
The whole concept of the deck has enough viability and support now in just a handful of sets to seriously reshape the two major formats - at least that's what I believe. And I feel TKS at the foremost is the paragon of that coming change. But that depends on the ingenuity of all the Spike players out there.
Like you said, it could be the flavor of the month, but it most definitely doesn't deserve to be.
January 26, 2016 4:01 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #7
It is admittedly stronger than grixis delver.
I just don't see a 4-of rare in a tier 1.5 modern only deck that sees no eternal play costing that much. I think Eidolon of the Great Revel is the BEST case scenario for TKS. Eidolon is $11 and a 4-of in a tier one modern deck. The print run was arguably smaller, burn is likely better than Bx Eldrazi, and eidolon sees fringe legacy play.
There is a false scarcity right now with the eldrazi cards. Everyone loves Eldrazi, so when they started doing well people bought up the pieces even if they haven't put the deck together, just in case they want to in the future. While it will likely put a skilled pilot into the top 8 at the pro tour, the ensuing spike in prices won't last long. Oath is still being opened and it is unlikely its price will stay as is.
It is a very good card, but only in a specific kind of deck
January 26, 2016 4:08 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #11
I believe it will go up to about 20-25 ASSUMING NO DUEL/CLASH/EVENT deck printing given that it will be the card that defines standard.
If you can demonstrate to me why it will command a $15 pricetag post-rotation, I'll gladly eat my words. Yet as things stand right now, I can't see it doing more than that.
January 26, 2016 7:20 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #12
Matter Reshaper on the other hand could turn out to be an eternal playable card.
People laughed at cascade when it was first introduced. "A free spell is good, but when you have no control over it there isn't any point" they said.
While Matter Reshaper certainly isn't Bloodbraid Elf, it certainly is strong. In a deck like Jund where everything is made of 110% weapons-grade value, having your 3/2 replaced with a 5/6 lhurgoyf or a LotV is a very real possibility.
January 26, 2016 7:23 p.m.
The only problem I can see with Matter Reshaper is that it can hit lands when you really don't want it to. Dont get me wrong a free land is great but I feel like its based way too much off of luck and isn't consistent enough.
January 26, 2016 7:31 p.m.
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #14
And cascading into Inquisition of Kozilek late game wasn't great either, but that didn't stop people from running a full playset of BBE.
Again, Matter reshaper isn't BBE.
All I'm saying is that if you get enough value, it doesn't matter if you don't have control over what you get.
I for one do NOT look forward to bolting a matter reshaper only to have it turn into a LotV.
January 26, 2016 7:56 p.m.
There are a number of modern decks (Though not all really Tier-1) that Thought-Knot Seer is horrible against.
If your opponent has no cards in hand, then this is just a 4-Drop with "When this leaves play, your opponent draws a card."... sounds 'okay' at best to me.
So, Affinity, Lantern Control, 8-rack, and any other deck wanting to empty their hand quickly (anything with Ensnaring Bridge in it?) just laugh at this.
In the long run, I think this could be a sideboard cards against a few decks which are weak to hand disruption and plan on keeping their hand size up. - Though there are better/cheaper forms of hand disruption. - The only reason 
/
Eldrazi should consider it is for the 'exile' factor.
January 27, 2016 2:39 p.m.
The eldrazi decks have the ability to drop Thought-Knot Seer turn 2 and exile the Ensnaring Bridge before they play it.
January 27, 2016 2:42 p.m.
So I played my eldrazi deck ALOT last night and man this guy puts in a ton of work. I consistently had him out turn 2 just ruined my opponents plans!
January 27, 2016 3:21 p.m.
It's only been going down since release. Where do you expect it to land? I don't foresee an increase in supply, it was /JUST printed, so the question is, will demand increase or decrease?
Serendipitous_Hummingbird says... #2
"Feed me your mental wanderings..."
That's a dangerous thing to do, but since you asked, here goes:
TKS is going to be a great card in standard. Might even replace good ol' rhino when it (finally rotates). While it is a great card and I plan on acquiring a playset at some point, I don't see it making many waves in the true eternal formats. Legacy MUD would be the only home I can think of, and a t2 TKS would be very likely with a playset of Ancient Tomb and City of Traitors. That being said, I doubt it would see more than fringe play. As for vintage, don't even bother. Paper vintage does not influence paper prices at all. Lodestone Golem, the top played creature in vintage according to MTGGoldfish, is $0.56 a copy. Even Oath of Druids, a card printed at rare a long time ago, is only $6 a pop and half of that is the crazy hope that one day it will be unbanned in legacy (not gonna happen).
Thought-Knot Seer and especially Reality Smasher feel like a certain card that became a huge standard staple and went up to $30 before rotating and falling to $3-4, seeing fringe play in modern. Basically, they feel like Thragtusk, and I'm not convinced Reality Smasher is even that.
As for Bx Eldrazi in modern, I'm still not sold on it. It seems like the flavor of the month, much like Grixis delver back in the spring. If it does end up a permanent resident of the meta, I'd say it TKS will settle somewhere around $8. It's a 4-of in the deck, but in terms of % of the meta that is Bx Eldrazi, there would be about as many copies as cards like Scavenging Ooze, Eidolon of the Great Revel, and Birds of Paradise.
I doubt Reality Smasher will go anywhere post rotation.
There is also the very real chance that one or both will see printing in either a duel deck or an event deck, in which case the price will drop.
Windswept Heath is so much cheaper because of the event deck printing. And we all watched Tasigur, the Golden Fang plummet from $8 to $3
TL;DR I don't see Reality Smasher doing anything, and Thought-Knot Seer will probably go up while in standard then go down by a lot once it rotates
January 26, 2016 3:02 p.m.