Thoughts on the price of Thoughtseize
Economics forum
Posted on Sept. 29, 2013, 11:46 p.m. by RickyHoeppner
So before it was spoiled to be reprinted, I had heard it was in the $70-$80 range. Most people (on this site too) predicted that the original print would stay in that range, and the new print will hover around $35-$40. What it looks like to me is that Thoughtseize being reprinted significantly lowered the price of both prints. You can purchase the original print at TCG player for $36 and the Theros one is under $19 at the lowest I have seen it. The Lorwyn price at SCG (SCG mind you) is only $33. I just don't get it, this is kind of disappointing for the ones who have held onto their copies. What do you guys think? Do you think that once SCG and TCG sells all of their copies and once everyone gets their playsets, that the price will go back up to where it should? I am not an economics major so maybe I am blind to some very obvious information.
Cobthecobbler says... #3
Personally (and I speak as a player, not a collector or someone who is looking to make a profit), I think the lower price is nicer for everyone. It allows more people to get into Modern and Legacy that were unable to do so because of the price of this one staple. Yes that's a little extremist, I mean, how could one card leave a player on the fringe of getting into something other than casual/EDH/standard?
For one, it's included as a 3-4x in almost any deck running black, and at $80 each, that's a huge pricetag for a playset. Now, a lot of players can justify putting it in their deck. The new $20 pricetag is great, and the Lorwyn print still retains more value because it is out of print and has been for a while now. There will always be players who want the older print. Once Theros isn't being printed anymore, the price will go back up for both and stabilize.
September 30, 2013 12:37 a.m.
ChiefWannaHacka says... #5
I'd like to take this chance to apply my passion to my hobby. This is like a mini-Econ lesson using MTG as an example, WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
While this is in the realm of Supply and Demand, there are some basic technical clarifications to the previous response. Sorry JWiley129, not trying to be a jerk.
First we'll have a market where the equilibrium price for Thoughtseize is $75. Without the reprint of Thoughtseize in Theros, any change in price would have simply changed the quantity supplied or the quantity demanded.
- "The more there is of something, the lower the price goes."
What is actually happening is there is an increase in supply, due to what I would label an increase in production. Holding all other factors the same, the shift in supply will determine a new lower equilibrium price in the market, let's say $25. While retailers, like SCG, could keep the $75 price, they would now have a surplus of Thoughtseize s, and the market would pressure them to lower the price to reach equilibrium again, or they would hardly sell any. To be clear, price isn't what's directly changing, supply is. *Note this doesn't differ between which print of Thoughtseize it is.
-I think we're currently right here, as packs are busted open the supply will explode. Then when the Legacy and Modern players grab their copies the price may rise a bit., and when some standard deck wins a GP or PTQ, if it uses Thoughtseize , you better believe that it's price will rise.
- ''The more people want of something, the higher the price goes."
This deals with an increase in demand, mostly because of an increase in the number of buyers and a change in consumer preferences. Previously, people who played Legacy and Modern wanted Thoughtseize , but now that pool grew to include Standard players. This increase shifts demand, and now you have a shortage of Thoughtseize s at the market price of $25. The same argument could be made for Modern players who previously didn't have access to Lorwyn Thoughtseize s, but gladly snagged the Theros copies they needed. Similar to how Modern Masters was designed to get more copies out or staples, all it did was drive some of the prices up because more people were now trying to get playsets of the same cards to get into modern with. So over time the market may shift to where the price of Thoughtseize goes up again, but like previously pointed out that'll probably happen when it leaves print again. As for consumer preferences, that is what mostly explains the price gap between the two prints of Thoughtseize . Collectors may want the old Thoughtseize , while most standard players may simply want the card. Again we want to be clear that price is not directly changing here.
This turned out way longer than I thought, and I'm tired. I'd be happy to elaborate or clarify anything if anyone cares enough to ask lol. I'm a huge nerd for Econ.
September 30, 2013 1:17 a.m.
ChiefWannaHacka - Thanks for adding more depth to my comment. I tried to keep my comment brief as well, and I think I succeeded a little bit. The depth of my econ knowledge goes to Econ 101 at my undergrad, so Supply-Demand curves are about as far as I can go.
September 30, 2013 1:32 a.m.
smash10101 says... #7
ok, so should I hold onto my foil Thoughtseize (THS) for a while or sell it now? I think the price will be going up to what it was before but not for a few years since Thoughtseize will continue to be a staple in modern and legacy even after it rotates out of standard. And modern is getting more and more popular with things like MMA and I keep hearing rumors about fetches getting reprinted soon.
September 30, 2013 1:32 a.m.
The Doctor says... #8
From what I can see, you're also looking at the lowest possible price for Thoughtseize , which usually means they are heavily or lightly played.
From TCGPLAYER current prices are :
Lorwyn Thoughtseize : $50
Theros Thoughtseize : $23
September 30, 2013 2:03 a.m.
The price will go up don't worry. After Theros is out of print and gets a bit older the price will rise from 20-30 to maybe somewhere around 40-50 while the Lorwyn Thoughtseize will increase even more. If you wanna make a small investment buy a couple at the $19 price and keep them. You could make some money on them in the future.
JWiley129 says... #2
It's called Supply and Demand. The more there is of something, the lower the price goes. The more people want of something, the higher the price goes. The demand for Thoughtseize is probably the same as before, but with more copies of Thoughtseize in the market place the price will drop. Will the price go up eventually? Yep. After Theros is out of print Thoughtseize might go up to that $70-$80 range it was before. As to where the price of Thoughtseize "should" be, that's up to the market to decide.
September 29, 2013 11:56 p.m.