Tiny Leaders, the Wallet Breaker
Economics forum
Posted on April 11, 2015, 6:50 p.m. by Femme_Fatale
If you thought Tiny Leader's was EDH's version of constructed pauper, think again.
We first saw Leonin Shikari spike to $17 to be quite a shock, but speculators hold no bounds and will target ANYTHING.
Tiny Leaders is quickly becoming a "go to" target for speculation and buy-outs because it being a brand new format means that plenty of cards that could be format defining have not been discovered yet. and we are seeing price spike after price spike. While some of these may not (and some are definitely not) be because of Tiny Leaders, but they still could affect Tiny Leaders. I'm mainly looking at price spike alone, as gradual trends will most likely be because of modern season. (Jesus Snapcaster Mage, why you gotta break my wallet?)
- Savor the Moment: $1 to $6, settling at $4.
- Congregation at Dawn: $0.75 to $3.50. Mainly because of Pod Banning though.
- Geist of Saint Traft: Two price spikes, both likely because of ban list speculations. First one is $15-$25, 2nd one is $13-$21.
- Champion's Helm: $4.50 to $8.50.
- Order of Whiteclay: $0.80 to $8, settling at $4.50.
- Nin, the Pain Artist: $4 to $10, settling at $7.75.
- Choke: $1.50 to $4.
- Animar, Soul of Elements: First spike from $8-$18, and then the 2nd spike from $13 to $21, and now rising.
- Tetsuou Umezawa: From $20-$48, flickering from $43-45 now.
(Source: mtgstocks.om)
Another problem with Tiny Leaders is that many staples also see cross format play, so it is just going to increase their prices (Hint, hint, Rings of Brighthearth, Reset, Survival of the Fittest, Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, Vendilion Clique, Snapcaster Mage, Flusterstorm, Counterbalance, Sensei's Divining Top, Spellskite, Stoneforge Mystic, EVERY SINGLE SWORD ... the list goes on and on).
There is still some hope though. Many of these cards aren't actually massive spikes, and they all seem to go down to more reasonable levels. That is mainly because of one nature of Tiny Leaders.
Demand does not meet supply. No matter how hard speculators speculate, they aren't going to become major cards till a good few years or so when WotC starts advertising (if they ever do) the Tiny Leaders format. Also, it is still a singleton format. So unlike modern which requires a playset of goyfs and 3 Lilis, the demand isn't going to be as high for tiny leader staples as it will be for modern staples. Finally, it is hard to determine what is actually going to become format staples. The commanders are a given, because there are a limited number of them legal, but everything else is can fluctuate drastically.
So let us discuss ourselves, is Tiny Leaders really the holy grail of money making speculation? Modern certainly seemed to be, for those who snagged their affinity pieces, shocks and other staples before the format became defined. Will Tiny Leaders hold that potential value for us in the future that standard is too volatile to traverse and that modern is too popular to get a heads start? Well, that's for us to discuss.
And while we are at it, what cards would be best as potential Tiny Leader's staples? Let's become speculators ourselves and hope to ride the wave before it turns tidal.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #3
So you're basically asking if TL will become as popular as EDH and Modern? I personally don't think so, as it's basically like a mini Commander format. I believe that it's just the hype around a new format that's making the prices spike, as they're already going down. The prices will likely stabilize at a bit higher than what they originally were, but I doubt that they will make a serious difference.
April 11, 2015 6:58 p.m.
One note, Counterbalance and Sword of Body and Mind are both banned, so you can take them out of your cross-format argument. The others are still true, hands down, but those two in particular shouldn't factor in.
April 11, 2015 6:59 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #5
The only cards that are really spiking high are also possible EDH commanders, so I believe that that's part of it too. Especially Animar.
April 11, 2015 7:01 p.m.
I have no intention of playing Tiny Leaders. It's a less fun version of commander, in my opinion. I'll stick with commander, thank you.
April 11, 2015 7:09 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #8
Blast, there goes some credibility in this thread.
FAMOUSWATERMELON, did you know that modern and EDH used to be at the same point that Tiny Leaders is today? Tiny Leaders is currently affecting the market place. It will eventually be, in a few years time, as popular as EDH or modern is now. Or at least, whenever WotC decides to make a second Tiny Leader product. The first one I don't think will raise that much attention, but the second one certainly will.
It is important to mention that there are a lot of people who like Tiny Leaders. This alone will drive it up to be popular, because people like it. Some people used to bash on Modern and EDH when they first started, but because there were a large portion of people who also liked the formats, they became what they are now. I see the same thing happening with Tiny Leaders and I am certain that it is only a matter of time before we all look back and wish we speculated into the format.
April 11, 2015 7:18 p.m.
I don't see this being as marketable as modern or commander, honestly. It will never be as big as either format.
April 11, 2015 7:36 p.m.
VampireArmy says... #10
April 11, 2015 7:39 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #11
The same was said about modern vishnarg. That's really what I'm trying to point out here.
Anyways, moving on from that, which cards does everyone think would be excellent spec targets?
April 11, 2015 7:42 p.m.
VampireArmy says... #12
Femme_Fatale hm...spec targets. what else do we have in terms of generals that sounds playble?
I've seen some Jaya Ballard decks and ZuZu the Punisher
April 11, 2015 7:46 p.m.
I feel like Tiny Leaders definitely will find its niche. It lets you run the janky/less popular cards that only make it into EDH decks while also making use of cards popular in Modern without the "Turn 4" mentality. It seems like a good mid-point between Modern and EDH that isn't as slow as a full on EDH game but isn't as fast as a Modern game. Obviously you can build decks to be an exception to this, but in general I believe it will follow this trend.
So you now have a format that makes use of an incredibly wide array of cards, allowing people who play Modern and/or EDH to jump in quite easily. I personally can see it as being incredibly marketable, especially if they actually devote precons to it. It will just take time for the format to grow and stabilize. Once some semblance of a meta forms, WotC can easily market precons that contain some staples of Tiny Leaders.
After all, that's why a majority of people I know buy precon decks instead of singles or boosters. They have good staple cards that they want, even if they don't want them for the Tiny Leaders format, you'll still have people buying it and having a mostly complete Tiny Leaders deck after they take the singles out. This will probably lead to them getting their feet wet in a new format.
April 11, 2015 7:49 p.m.
I think Maralen of the Mornsong might see a price jump once people realize how good she is as a commander. I can't think of any other possible sleeper cards, but there will definitely be some price spikes for 3 cmc or smaller legends.
Tiny Leaders will definitely rise is popularity, with some probable WotC special products, but I don't think it'll ever get to EDH or modern level play wise.
April 11, 2015 7:58 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #15
Kemba, Kha Regent is a potential spec target. I've been hearing that she is a competitive deck.
Also interesting to note that Champion's Helm, Leonin Shikari and Order of Whiteclay all fit into a kemba deck.
April 11, 2015 8:40 p.m.
The Doctor says... #16
Honestly, I love Tiny Leaders. However, the price spikes that have come with it have quickly turned me off from pursuing new decks other then the Skullbriar, the Walking Grave deck I already have.
April 11, 2015 8:45 p.m.
I'm with The Doctor. Except for people with established collections, it's pretty hard to get into TL competitively. I've got my Alesha, Who Smiles at Death deck, and have zero interest to build another one.
April 11, 2015 8:47 p.m.
ThisIsBullshit says... #18
Yeah, seeing all the price spikes and hearing about all the cards that are supposedly going to be super good has pretty much turned me off Tiny Leaders.
I'm also not sure how popular it will really be. It's not a sanctioned format, and I think people would be more drawn to EDH without the cmc restrictions. But then again, who knows.
April 11, 2015 8:49 p.m.
Since most common board wipes are out of the 3 cmc limit, I'd imagine you'd also see a rise in less traditional ones. Toxic Deluge Oblivion Stone
Anger of the Gods Devastating Dreams
Rolling Earthquake
Rough/Tumble
Savage Twister Just to name a few.
Interestingly enough, Red far surpasses white in tiny leaders when it comes to board wipes, which is a huge difference from EDH.
April 11, 2015 8:51 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #20
Indeed. Prices are definitely up there in the thousands. Just because every Kemba deck needs The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vales and every multicoloured deck needs ABUR duals, shocks and fetches. Really, the lands is what is hurting everyone, purely because you really can't stinge out on them with mana costs being so stringent and land being so scarce. Not too mention, like I mentioned before, all the format defining staples of other formats are also in Tiny Leaders.
Also, did I mention how much I hate The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vales name? I've NEVER been able to get it right once!
April 11, 2015 8:52 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #21
Necrotize, you know, all those colours are Jund colours ...
April 11, 2015 8:53 p.m.
The Doctor says... #22
It just upsets me how the difference in Good/Decent EDH and Good/Decent Tiny Leaders is a vast difference.
April 11, 2015 8:53 p.m.
@Femme_Fatale Yeah just realized. All I did was go to the gatherer and searched cards under 3 cmc that deal damage to all creatures and picked out a few since I knew they were far more common than destroy effects. Obviously there are more, but I think its safe to say Jund has quite a wide array of viable boardwipes in Tiny Leaders while White and Blue do not.
Plus I didn't feel like pagestretching anymore than I already did :P
April 11, 2015 8:56 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #24
I do not think that TL is the holy grail of speculation. I think new formats are the holy grail of speculation.
April 11, 2015 9:45 p.m.
JexInfinite says... #25
Tiny Leaders is more fast paced than EDH. It'll get bigger.
There are a lot of old cards which people haven't discovered yet. A lot. Many of those are around the $5 mark, and are decently difficult to find, so if any of them catches on, without a doubt they will spike a heap.
April 11, 2015 9:59 p.m.
jandrobard says... #26
I've said it a few times before, I do NOT like TL (If you want to argue this point, please don't derail this thread to do so). However, it seems to be catching on in game stores and tournaments, so investors aren't going away anytime soon. I think that after maybe a year, it'll be like Momir basic in that it'll be a well known format that is played by a lot of people, but no one will give it attention as a primary or investable format due to the small player base willing to spend buckets on it. However, it'll still be expensive due to the "cross-format" issue.
April 11, 2015 11:06 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #27
About EDH and Modern:
Modern was a format invented and put in place by Wizards. It was "official" and therefore, even though I'm sure it was popular, it was almost forced upon players.
EDH was successful because it was unique. It had a commander and mechanics that were never tried before and that's what made it so popular.
TL is neither of the above.
April 11, 2015 11:19 p.m.
I've been playing a LOT of Tiny Leaders the past month, so I'll give you some cards I can think of on the spot.
- Glimpse of Nature (Sees cross format play, staple in Elves which is T1 and any creature based combo / storm deck (Animar))
- Recurring Nightmare (not banned and crazy good in Alesha among others.)
- Green Sun's Zenith
- True-Name Nemesis (So goddamn broken)
- Auriok Champion
- Council's Judgment (If TNN becomes popular, so will this be)
- Crucible of Worlds
- Dark Confidant (Seen a huge drop in popularity lately with delve, well this format is like made for him)
- Deathrite Shaman (Not banned here!)
- Knight of the Reliquary
- Isochron Scepter
- Liliana of the Veil (Already mentioned ITT but she deserves a second mention due to how disgusting she is)
- Entreat the Angels
- Inquisition of Kozilek (STRICTLY better thoughtseize, yeah)
- Meddling Mage (Really good in TL for some reason...)
- Nevermore (Doesn't come in T2 which is sad, but harder to get rid of)
- Pithing Needle (I fucking maindeck pithing needles in this format.)
- Genesis Hydra (Go to ramp win-con)
- Angus Mackenzie (And he is already stupidly expensive)
- Planar Collapse
- Bloom Tender
- Serra Ascendant (Starting at 25)
- Burning Wish & Cunning Wish
April 11, 2015 11:37 p.m.
ThisIsBullshit says... #29
Abrupt Decay? 2 mana for "destroy nonland permanent, can't be countered"?
April 11, 2015 11:40 p.m.
Oh and I forgot some other obvious ones: Toxic Deluge, Pernicious Deed, Abrupt Decay, Vindicate, Sinkhole, Sylvan Library.
April 11, 2015 11:41 p.m.
There's a whole lot of TL staples when I think about it.
April 11, 2015 11:44 p.m.
Unforgivn_II says... #32
I can say from experience, Tetsuo Umezawa is ass. I'm glad I was able to even find someone who had interest (someone who was collecting cards from Legends). I'm not even mad about ditching him a long time ago. That and my Living Plane are the least liquid cards I've ever owned
April 11, 2015 11:58 p.m.
Imperial Recruiter and Grove of the Burnwillows + Punishing Fire will probably see a spike if the format takes off.
April 12, 2015 12:27 a.m.
This is a cool format idea, but won't it crash and burn since there really isn't that many 3 drop commanders? Which would mean less variety decks and a less enjoyable format?
April 12, 2015 1:35 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #36
There are quite a few 3 drop commanders xShawn. Just the tri coloured department is lacking in this aspect.
April 12, 2015 1:57 a.m.
Hmm, maybe if it becomes popular WotC will decide to print special leaders like the do for commander sets?
April 12, 2015 2:35 a.m.
I think its an awesome format. 3 cmc has generally been the curve for power cards in magic, and this provides us a way faster, way effective style of play imo. most of the local stores in my area have adopted it, and are now holding weekly tournaments. I hope wizards turns it into a sanctioned event soon
April 12, 2015 3:40 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #39
My prediction is that it will take till the 2nd product xShawn before Tiny Leaders becomes well known among everyone.
April 12, 2015 3:50 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #40
I think you make some great points. Speculators seem to have actually driven up interest in to format. This one has taken off faster then any other one I can think of. Seems faster then when modern came out.
Femme, you think they will make product for this format? That is interesting. Are you thinking a Modern Masters type set, or replacing the normal commander decks? Either way, that will be a great way to reprint vintage/legacy staples.
April 12, 2015 2:13 p.m.
A singleton format has to be very, VERY popular to actively drive prices up. What we're looking at at the moment is a bunch of sharks jumping on speculation.
As is, I expect Tiny Leaders to become a transition format for players not interested in Modern dabble in it to see if they might like EDH, which will in turn make EDH a slightly more aggro format as fast converted Tiny Leader decks enter the format. Tiny Leader's focus on 3 CMC or less will probably drive prices up a fair bit, but not too much.
April 13, 2015 11:07 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #42
Replacing the commander decks Didgeridooda. Because remember, any card legal in Tiny Leaders is legal in Commander.
April 13, 2015 11:55 p.m.
Didgeridooda says... #43
I see that as very interesting. I would not mind a set like that. It would really allow for some powerful reprints. I am a fan of those. They could do a duel deck set up for it or something.
Egann, I feel Tiny leaders is more likely to replace French commander. I do not think it would serve as a very effective bridge to EDH.
April 14, 2015 12:19 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #44
French commander is kinda stupid. No one really likes it. If people want to play EDH they are going to play with the EDH ban list and rules, not french commander. I see a french player maybe once a month.
April 14, 2015 12:26 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #45
There are a bunch here, and I converted one of my decks to French. I like the ban list there. I can see why some people don't like it though. Seems that it is a little too forced to be competitive, and TL fills the hole better.
April 14, 2015 12:35 a.m.
I thought Choke went up due to Delver's prevalence under the banner of Cruise.
Did TL Drive the 'train track' spike in its price higher? o.o
April 14, 2015 4:45 a.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #47
Nah, it was most likely because of Delver. Like I said in my post, I only put price spike that affected Tiny Leaders, whether or not they are the cause of tiny leaders is another matter. However Choke is on Blood Moon power in green decks that don't run blue, so it will certainly become powerful in Tiny Leaders.
April 14, 2015 5:23 a.m.
As far as Wizards producing products for this format, I would hope they hedge their bets first...
Produce a Commander deck with 3CMC commanders and have an 'alternate' list of 50 cards for a viable 'Tiny Leaders' deck. - Advertise it as 'Commander + Tiny Leader'.
Alternatively, if they do something that is primarily 'Tiny Leaders', I would hope they make it like a clash pack... for example, as 
deck, vs. a 
deck... with an extra Legendary which can be used in combination with the 2 combined decks (minus 1 card), to create a Commander deck.
(I like the first option better)
April 14, 2015 8:06 a.m.
ThisIsBullshit says... #50
Also, just because you see a Duel player once a month has nothing to do with how popular it is. I never see modern players, does that mean modern is stupid? Why play modern when you could just follow the legacy banlist?
Femme_Fatale says... #2
Tetsuo Umezawa dammit. Spelling >.>
April 11, 2015 6:54 p.m.