Tiny Leaders, the Wallet Breaker
Economics forum
Posted on April 11, 2015, 6:50 p.m. by Femme_Fatale
If you thought Tiny Leader's was EDH's version of constructed pauper, think again.
We first saw Leonin Shikari spike to $17 to be quite a shock, but speculators hold no bounds and will target ANYTHING.
Tiny Leaders is quickly becoming a "go to" target for speculation and buy-outs because it being a brand new format means that plenty of cards that could be format defining have not been discovered yet. and we are seeing price spike after price spike. While some of these may not (and some are definitely not) be because of Tiny Leaders, but they still could affect Tiny Leaders. I'm mainly looking at price spike alone, as gradual trends will most likely be because of modern season. (Jesus Snapcaster Mage, why you gotta break my wallet?)
- Savor the Moment: $1 to $6, settling at $4.
- Congregation at Dawn: $0.75 to $3.50. Mainly because of Pod Banning though.
- Geist of Saint Traft: Two price spikes, both likely because of ban list speculations. First one is $15-$25, 2nd one is $13-$21.
- Champion's Helm: $4.50 to $8.50.
- Order of Whiteclay: $0.80 to $8, settling at $4.50.
- Nin, the Pain Artist: $4 to $10, settling at $7.75.
- Choke: $1.50 to $4.
- Animar, Soul of Elements: First spike from $8-$18, and then the 2nd spike from $13 to $21, and now rising.
- Tetsuou Umezawa: From $20-$48, flickering from $43-45 now.
(Source: mtgstocks.om)
Another problem with Tiny Leaders is that many staples also see cross format play, so it is just going to increase their prices (Hint, hint, Rings of Brighthearth, Reset, Survival of the Fittest, Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, Vendilion Clique, Snapcaster Mage, Flusterstorm, Counterbalance, Sensei's Divining Top, Spellskite, Stoneforge Mystic, EVERY SINGLE SWORD ... the list goes on and on).
There is still some hope though. Many of these cards aren't actually massive spikes, and they all seem to go down to more reasonable levels. That is mainly because of one nature of Tiny Leaders.
Demand does not meet supply. No matter how hard speculators speculate, they aren't going to become major cards till a good few years or so when WotC starts advertising (if they ever do) the Tiny Leaders format. Also, it is still a singleton format. So unlike modern which requires a playset of goyfs and 3 Lilis, the demand isn't going to be as high for tiny leader staples as it will be for modern staples. Finally, it is hard to determine what is actually going to become format staples. The commanders are a given, because there are a limited number of them legal, but everything else is can fluctuate drastically.
So let us discuss ourselves, is Tiny Leaders really the holy grail of money making speculation? Modern certainly seemed to be, for those who snagged their affinity pieces, shocks and other staples before the format became defined. Will Tiny Leaders hold that potential value for us in the future that standard is too volatile to traverse and that modern is too popular to get a heads start? Well, that's for us to discuss.
And while we are at it, what cards would be best as potential Tiny Leader's staples? Let's become speculators ourselves and hope to ride the wave before it turns tidal.
Didgeridooda says... #1
I also feel that TL speculation is based on availability of the cards. If something has only one printing, it can be easily specked.
April 14, 2015 10:53 a.m.