Trade Evaluation
Economics forum
Posted on Aug. 16, 2015, 3:49 p.m. by DivineGrace
2 Path to Exile, Wooded Bastion, 4 Windswept Heath, Woodland Bellower
VS
2 Abrupt Decay, 3 Heritage Druid
Thoughts on this trade?In terms of value and if it was you what would you choose based on your personal preference or any reason.
ducttapedeckbox says... #3
Agree with the above for basically the same reasons.
August 16, 2015 4:10 p.m.
JoshRigone says... #4
Absolutely agree with the above posts. Furthermore, the first pile offers greater diversity which insulates you against sudden price spikes/drops.
August 16, 2015 4:25 p.m.
mathimus55 says... #5
Like what was said already, Heritage Druid will get demolished once it's reprinted, especially if it's at uncommon again. Abrupt Decay is going to go up perpetually and we don't really know it's ceiling. I'm trading for every Heath I can find at the moment too. Pile 1 for me. Path to Exile seems resistant to every reprint it's gotten too
August 16, 2015 4:26 p.m.
lets break down each card:
2 Path to Exile: The second most used removal in modern only to Lightning Bolt. definitely worth its' weight, but with 5+ reprints, it's increase in value is minimal. easy trade fodder. 8/10
Wooded Bastion: Random $10 land in very popular colors. A cycle reprint will drop the price significantly, but is also unlikely in the near future. 7/10
4 Windswept Heath MMMM, Fetches. easy to trade, easy to trade for. useful in EVERY format, and only guaranteed to go up within the next year or so. 10/10
Woodland Bellower: Ehh. EDH value, possible sleeper in standard, but if Reaper of the Wilds showed us anything, sleepers don't wake up :p. 4/10
group total = 67/80 or 83.75%, B-
Tcg Mid Value = ~77.50
2 Abrupt Decay: Useful in every format it's legal in. Best removal in legacy, probably the best removal in modern. It's from the second most opened set of all time, but that rotated over a year ago, and doesn't see much opening. Easier to trade away than to trade for, which is a good thing. 9.5/10 (only because it's not standard legal)
3 Heritage Druid: Key card in both legacy and modern elves. Reprint will likely half its price, if not more, but unlikely to happen within the next 6-12 months. Value if used, value if quickly tradable for better cards, but the speculation train has wayyy come and gone, and it's value won't increase by much. 8/10
total = 44.5/50 or 89.00%, B+
TCG Mid Value = ~88.00
Value difference = ~10.50 loss for bottom
Victor = Top
both sets have relevant cards that will continue to stay relevant. It's a tough call for me. If Heritage Druid's value wasn't so fragile, I'd be much more inclined to the bottom pile. I know way too many people with elf pieces in their binder that just aren't moving. The cards in the top pile are more likely to stay within ~$2 of their current value. Especially with the $10 loss the bottom pile is taking, I'd rather keep the top.
August 16, 2015 5:19 p.m. Edited.
canterlotguardian says... #7
GoofyFoot excellent price breakdown but something you said caught my eye. if RTR is the second-most opened set of all time... what's the first?
August 16, 2015 5:31 p.m.
I would only make either trade if I had no use for one of the piles and had slots in decks I was running for the cards in the other pile. That's just me, though.
I think the overall value of a card on a trade context depends on the people involved and not just the speculative value of the cards.
August 16, 2015 5:36 p.m.
canterlotguardian Khans of Tarkir.
........... Complete honesty, That could be fiction. I KNOW that RTR was the most opened set ever, but I believe Khans passed it. page one google didn't confirm or deny for me.
August 16, 2015 5:37 p.m.
canterlotguardian says... #10
It's not too important. I would have assumed Khans passed RTR because of the ONS fetch reprints but I wasn't sure if maybe some older set like Worldwake or New Phyrexia took the first spot.
August 16, 2015 5:39 p.m.
DivineGrace says... #12
Darn it. This looks like a hard decision. But thanks for all the analysis. It seems ppl favor Pile 1.
August 17, 2015 2:12 a.m.
DivineGrace I'm curious why there is such a large price difference between the piles, and which end is yours.
August 17, 2015 3:50 a.m.
DivineGrace says... #14
I have Pile 1 and I am trading it for Pile 2.
There is a $10 discrepancy because I am giving a playset of fetches, and the other trader thinks it's reasonable.
But apparently even with the big price difference, Pile 1 is STILL better even though Pile 2 is $10 more.
Programmer_112 says... #2
I would choose the first pile, since now is the best time to trade for Windswept Heaths, and I don't really trust Heritage Druid's long-term value. That said, Abrupt Decay is a good card, and is unlikely to lose a significant amount of value any time soon.
August 16, 2015 3:52 p.m.