Trade Evaluation Analysis
Economics forum
Posted on Sept. 13, 2015, 7:27 p.m. by DivineGrace
So I need some objective analysis of a pending trade.
Pile 1Windswept Heath x4
Pile 2Abrupt Decay
Analysis in regards of value, format, viability, utility, growth, diversity, etc appreciated.
I purposely left out which pile is mine to prevent bias and subjectiveness for the author.
TheAnnihilator says... #3
Honestly, I wouldn't want to trade away any of these cards (except Shaman). Decay sees a lot of play, and fetches are great. Fulminator seems like a decent card to hold onto, and Ewit is an EDH staple with some Modern potential. If you have one pile and need the cards in the other, I'd say it's a pretty even trade overall.
If I had to choose one to keep, I'd go for pile 1 to have 4 for-sure eternal playable cards (the fetches) vs. the 2 Decays and some fringe playable cards (not entirely sure if Fulminator is really "fringe", but not nearly as safe as fetches). Yet, I'm afraid the price ceiling on Decay is much higher than I'm anticipating.
Really hard decision here.
September 13, 2015 7:41 p.m.
xFyre_Flyex says... #4
So if we're assuming most recent printings on each pile, then pile 1 has a higher monetary value than pile 2, $52 to $49. This isn't much and shouldn't be taken into consideration, but there are some key difference why pile 1 is worth more. Ally fetches are at their most prevalent right now, and that's driving their value way down. They are also a staple in every format, and will therefore always be in demand. Also, they are a full set of 4, which is key for trades and for collectors. Shaman will go way down in value when it rotates, but the 8 dollar price loss will be made up in a couple years when the fetches rise at least a few dollars each. Pile 2's key cards, Mage and Decay, are both played in Modern and Legacy, which will keep their demand up, but as was stated earlier they are much more fringe than the fetches, and are unlikely to rise much in value, if at all. Witness is played much more frequently in Commander, so that will keep the price hovering around 6.
If you have pile 1, then I wouldn't recommend trading it. Keep the fetches are get rid of the Shaman. If you have pile 2 and are trading for pile 1, then I would jump on this ASAP.
September 13, 2015 8:26 p.m.
DivineGrace says... #5
Awesome. All of this is very insightful.
Let me make it even more simple.
1 abrupt decay vs 1 windswept heath
Which would you take?
September 13, 2015 10:13 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #6
That's even harder, actually. I would say the fetch purely because it just got printed. Abrupt Decay was printed a couple years ago, so it has had time to stabilize, but Windswept Heath was just recently printed, meaning that it's at its absolute lowest right now. I think it'll rise at a much faster rate than Decay once Khans stops getting opened.
September 13, 2015 10:17 p.m.
Actually I'd take the decay. Heaths are everywhere and you could probably find one in all of 15 minutes. Decays people are hoarding so they don't pop up much to be traded for.
September 13, 2015 11:04 p.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #8
I definitely prefer Decay to Heath when it's just 1 for 1. The problem is, the question is really "Would you rather have 1 Decay or 2 Heaths?" since you have 2 decays on one side of the trade and 4 heaths on the other.
September 14, 2015 8:49 a.m.
- Step 1: Trade 1 Heath for 1 decay
- Step 2: Trade the decay for a heath + something else.
- Step 3: ???
- Step 4: Profit!
September 14, 2015 8:51 a.m. Edited.
TheAnnihilator says... #10
Jay That's exactly why I'd trade for the heaths first. They're everywhere, meaning supply is high and price is low. If you wait until they're no longer high in supply, their price will increase.
Getting Heaths now is setting up for a fairly large profit later.
The reason this trade is difficult, however, is that we don't know how Abrupt Decay's price will behave. Honestly, I think it'll continue to steadily increase, but not much -- it's already in high demand (and that won't change) and it's supply now should be only a tiny bit higher than it's supply later due to loss of cards to damage and maybe a gradual influx of players. This leaves only a small bit of room for price increase.
September 14, 2015 8:56 a.m.
TheAnnihilator, generally speaking, yes. You should go for as many heaths as possible now. However, Decay is also likely to go up but is harder to find. If you need or don't have Decay, it is definitely the better choice. Either can be picked up for value, though Heather has further to go up (although I wouldn't be surprised if Decay hits $30-$40 in a few years).
September 14, 2015 11:54 a.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #13
Oh, Didgeridooda, in that case pile 1 is definitely better.
@Jay Yes, if you need Decays pick them up. Same is true for Heaths.
September 14, 2015 2:19 p.m.
Named_Tawyny says... #14
As a one for one, I'd take the Decay over the Heath. It comes down to ease of replacement.
If you trade away the Decay, you might have trouble finding another. If you trade away the Heath, you'll have little trouble finding another.
Nobody* is going to trade you a Decay without you giving them eternal value in exchange. People will trade a Heath for other Standard cards though.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #2
Close call, but I'm probably going to say pile 1, just because of the 4 fetches. I would get rid of the shaman as soon as you can.
September 13, 2015 7:38 p.m.