Ugin for Windswept Heath, Bloodstained Mire & Wooded Foothills?
Economics forum
Posted on Feb. 12, 2015, 7:06 p.m. by Rodfjell
Who's getting the better end of the trade?
Ugin has been rising by $0.50 every day and the fetchlands have been dropping.
Could Ugin one day have Karn's $49 pricetag?
How long will fetches be around $10-15?
Fetches have always been staples in legacy/commander/modern. They also help fix mana. I would rather open my hand with 2 of the same fetches, than 2 of the same basic, as it would mean access to two of my colors.
Ugin is still low in term of circulation. The fetches could drop a little more while it is still being drafted/opened. After rotation, the fetches will rise, and Ugin may lose value as it will lose its main demand.
February 12, 2015 7:51 p.m.
You absolutely should jump on that trade. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon's long-term position will be as a one or two-of in Mono-Blue Tron....and that's about it. He's nowhere near as strong as Liliana of the Veil or Karn Liberated given his mana cost, so I doubt he'll be more than $20 post-rotation. He could hit $50 over a longer period, but that's a ways off.
By comparison, Bloodstained Mire and Wooded Foothills were $40 each prior to the announcement of a reprint. While they've certainly taken a dive since then, they can sit safely at $10 post-rotation. They may even climb back up to $20 each. Windswept Heath is worth slightly more because of Maverick and Abzan. It was $80 prior to the announcement. The lowest it will probably sit is $15.
One needs to look at the Zendikar fetchlands. Marsh Flats were around $5 each when they were in Standard, rose to $10 after rotation, then jumped to $20 with the creation of Modern...and it's still sitting at $25 after dropping from $50.
My point is: fetchlands always have value. Unless WotC releases something that's strictly better (which is unlikely), people will always need them. They are among the safest long-term investments you can make in Magic. At worst, the three you trade for sit at a combined value of $35. It's doubtful Ugin, the Spirit Dragon will climb that high years from now. It would take another reprint of the Onslaught fetches for the three combined to not equal what you traded away.
What's more likely to happen is your three fetchlands sit at $15 to $20 each, while Ugin, the Spirit Dragon hangs out at $20 to $30. I'd jump all over this if I were you.
February 12, 2015 7:54 p.m.
Thanks for the info, guys. I'll make the trade then.
February 12, 2015 11:57 p.m.
New question: what if I traded Ugin, the Spirit Dragon for Arid Mesa? There's a possible reprint so it may go down in price.
Ugin is ~34, Arid Mesa is ~32 atm.
February 13, 2015 12:49 a.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #7
I wouldnt say 'possible' reprint I would say definite reprint if not in the next set definitely at some point in the next mini block. Origins seems like it will tie in with closing the Zendikar storyline, and starting a new one.
February 13, 2015 1:33 a.m.
The three fetchlands seems like a better deal any way you look at it. You're getting roughly the same value, but less prone to taking a hit due to reprints.
February 13, 2015 7:05 a.m.
You would come out better in the end with the 3 fetches, than with the 1 currently more expensive one. While the original wont take a big hit when it is reprinted, some players wont trade for the original when they can get the newer one for less in trade value.
canterlotguardian says... #2
Fetches shouldn't be as high as they are tbh. The only thing they fetch is basic lands. I can see the high prices if shocks were still Standard-legal. I see them dropping to around 8 or 9 for the non-blue ones, 12-14 for blues. Because for some damn reason, people in Standard still want them.
plus I guess it's because Modern and Legacy and EDH and all those other formats that OMG IVE NEVER HAD THIS BEFORE AND NOW I DO WHAT NOW.
February 12, 2015 7:19 p.m.