Ugin's fate pack alternate art cards
Economics forum
Posted on Jan. 20, 2015, 11:02 p.m. by perrin515
Should I keep or sell? I really am feeling like I should keep my alt Ugin, the Spirit Dragon but seeing the Grim Haruspex going for like $10 each I should sell into the hype.
Thoughts?
slovakattack says... #3
Gib me ugin.
Seriously though, I'm trying to build a full set of the Alt. art Ugins. I have traaaadez.
January 20, 2015 11:07 p.m.
SimicPower says... #4
$150 TCG mid? Yikes. I would sell now for sure, I see no reason for it to stay that high unless Ugin becomes some sort of modern staple. (Which he won't)
January 20, 2015 11:16 p.m.
SimicPower says... #5
On that note, I would also sell regular Ugins as well. Currently, $30 for a standard 8 mana planeswalker, it will not retain that value.
January 20, 2015 11:18 p.m.
slovakattack says... #7
Sell the regular Ugin asap. Too big for standard, won't see play in Modern. Foil Ugins will retain their value more than regular ones, but not as much as it is now. If you can get it for 90, sell.
Alternate art Ugin will retain it's value, due to its extremely limited release, and the nature of it's consumer base (the people who want the alt. art ugin are either A. Collectors, or B. EDH swagsters.) Neither of them care whether or not he sees play in other formats.
That's my opinion, anyway.
January 20, 2015 11:23 p.m.
So there were alternate arts for every card in the set? I would really like to get some Soulfire Grand Master alt art. I think thats my favorite card in the set.
January 20, 2015 11:37 p.m.
Honestly, I'd trade/sell ugin as quick as you can find a taker (shouldn't take long). Once people start playing with him and seeing his limitations, he's going to drop. Tron and 12 Post are about the only ones that could use him, and I expect to only see him pop up as a 1-of on an occasional list there.
January 20, 2015 11:41 p.m.
See, this is my problem. I agree on both ends....
Sell or trade now while price is high BUT its so damn limited that I think it will always have value.
I may just sit at mt LGS on Friday and see what people will offer
January 20, 2015 11:58 p.m.
CommanderOfBolas says... #12
where can we see a list of the cards available in the packs and there prices?
I cant find anything
January 21, 2015 12:05 a.m.
January 21, 2015 12:11 a.m.
SimicPower says... #14
Even if it is a collector's item, I can't imagine it holding all of that value. Firstly, it is not foil. Secondly, it saw a relatively large amount of print compared to some promos (judge promos), and many judge promos are worth far less.
January 21, 2015 12:24 a.m.
I got a Mastery of the Unseen in an Ugin's Fate pack. The regular is listed at $.79 TCG mid and the the alt art is listed at $19.45 TCG mid. Lol.... that's quite a difference. Are these really that limited a print to warrant these prices or is it just shock value since this is something not normally done at pre releases. I know at each pre release my local shop did there were multiple alt-art Ugin's pulled, so are they really as limited/rare as people are claiming?
January 21, 2015 12:29 a.m.
slovakattack says... #16
I expect it to drop/remain at an even 90-100 for a while, eventually increasing as time goes on.
Foiling, and judge foiling are not indicative of collect-ability (example: the judge promo Memory Lapse is like... 4 bucks?.)
Ugin is a powerful card with a lot of personality behind it. That counts for a lot.
January 21, 2015 12:32 a.m.
slovakattack says... #17
abenz419: It's undeniable that a lot of the hype surrounding the alt. art cards is indeed shock value. Doing a little research, (mostly just asking a bunch of people who'd attended different pre-releases), I found that the average store had 1 alt. art Ugin pulled per event, with some stores having multiple pulled in a single event, and some stores having none pulled at all. (this was the case with the event I attended.)
I don't know if that level of rarity is enough to send the card on a one-way ticket to valuetown, but it's more than enough for people to sit up and take notice.
January 21, 2015 12:35 a.m.
MurderHood says... #18
We had ten pulled the entire weekend at our LGS @slovakattack
January 21, 2015 12:39 a.m.
slovakattack says... #19
Woahdamn, good for you guys!
(personal & anecdotal experience isn't really something you can take to court on this issue though- mine included.)
At the end of the day, there isn't much to do but wait and see.
January 21, 2015 12:41 a.m.
I wonder if the events that didn't have one pulled were smaller events. When the Ugin box was opened it was larger packs with the smaller ugin fate packs inside. I suppose if your store had to open fewer of those larger packs in order to hand one of the smaller packs out to everyone then you could be less likely to see the packs that contained alt-art ugins.
January 21, 2015 12:43 a.m.
slovakattack says... #21
What's really interesting is that (I heard from the owner of my lgs, but have no reason to believe this to be untrue) the unopened packs are to be sent back to Wizards to be disposed of.
That's pretty fascinating, as there could be a whole bunch of Ugins that will just never be opened. Unlike with actual sets (of any kind), there will be no further market stimulus for this product. None. The saturation of alt. art Ugins that are currently hitting the market is the greatest volume we will ever see. (barring a second print run from Wizards, for some diabolical reason??)
January 21, 2015 12:46 a.m.
Holy shit lol...even the commons are going for like $3~8 each.
Did people seriously not get any of these at the prerelease? My store had a several boxes and were able to give everyone a pack for each event. We had around 30 people for each one and there were 5 events. That was just the store I went to (there's 4 major retailers who held prereleases in my city). There's probably over 2,000 of these singles in my town alone.
How are these things going for so much? I would be surprised if there were more Arena promos printed, yet they're worth less and actually playable cards.
January 21, 2015 12:58 a.m.
Hjaltrohir says... #23
Even the Arashin War Beast and Ainok Tracker are going for like 5 bucks, sheesh...
January 21, 2015 1:41 a.m.
SimicPower says... #24
Maybe before we determine the long term price of alt Ugin, we should wait until regular Ugin settles. If regular Ugin settles at about $10, I see no reason why the alt would settle at $100.
Memory Lapse is a bad Judge promo example. I was thinking more along the lines of promo Nekusar, the Mindrazer, currently $30. It has demand for being the only foil Nekusar printed, and therefore is very valuable in commander where Nekusar is a somewhat popular general.
Even judge promo Sword of Feast and Famine is only $80. It, however, is foil, is a very playable card, the only Sword of Feast and Famine printed with the old border, and in very limited print. Still less than Ugin right now.
January 21, 2015 2:20 a.m.
I have an Ugin altered version to sell (Italian language). http://www.ebay.it/itm/Carta-magic-Altered-art-promo-Ugin-lo-spirito-drago-/261740518000?pt=Cards&hash=item3cf0f35a70
January 21, 2015 5:14 a.m.
CommanderOfBolas says... #26
ugin is an alternate art planeswalker who is the first of his kind and is on an extremely limited print run. His price coms from his desire to be collected, not his playability, although some people do want to try to play him
January 21, 2015 11:19 a.m.
SimicPower says... #27
Foil alternate art Griselbrand is currently $30. No matter what, I am sure alt-Ugin will be worth less than regular foil Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
.
January 21, 2015 11:25 a.m.
Hjaltrohir says... #28
No SimicPower it is likely to be more expensive as there are EXTREMELY limeted quantities as in no more Ugins Fate packs will be produced now Prerelease weekend is over but the pack foil ugins will be opened for a while.
January 21, 2015 11:38 a.m.
SimicPower says... #29
That still doesn't justify a $130 price tag. I can not think of another card that retained a $140 pricetag after it was released and widely distributed, even in limited print run. (Maybe Tarmogoyf reprint, but let's not compare Ugin to goyf.) Remember, Ugin is still a hype planeswalker. After his price dies down to $10-15, the hype of the promo will die down as well. And I am sure LGSs will open unopened Ugin's Fate packs after the prereleases, slightly increasing the supply.
January 22, 2015 12:01 a.m.
slovakattack says... #30
Unopened Ugin's Fate packs are to be sent back to Wizards to be shredded and disposed of. If stores are opening unopened Fate packs, they are violating the terms of their agreement.
January 22, 2015 12:05 a.m.
SimicPower says... #31
That... doesn't really make sense. It doesn't seem beneficial to wizards to print cards and then dispose of them, and it doesn't seem beneficial to LGSs to buy cards then sell them back, unless they can get a better price than the bought them for, which is, once again, not beneficial to wizards. Is there a specific reason?
January 22, 2015 12:08 a.m.
slovakattack says... #32
Most stores just handed them out, but remember that Ugin's Fate packs are technically part of an extremely specific sub-event of the Fate Reforged Prerelease. It makes perfect sense that Wizards wants to keep the packs specifically relevant to that event, and keep the contents of said packs as exclusive as possible. They were looking to create an event with those packs, NOT create a 'promo print run.'
January 22, 2015 12:12 a.m.
SimicPower says... #33
I guess it makes some sense, but it still seems kind of wasteful. It does cost money for wizards to print cards. Whatever, I guess it is justifiable if wizards wants to raise the hype for one event.
January 22, 2015 12:16 a.m.
SimicPower says... #34
A lot of people seem to disagree with me right now, so I am going to let this topic rest for a few months. Then I will either be able to say "I told you so" or "Fine, you were right". Price speculation on brand new cards is often hard to get right.
January 22, 2015 2:47 a.m.
Death_The_Kid says... #35
My LGS owner said that there will be no packs sold from the event and that any unopened packs will be opened by them. However she already said she sold out and was making sure they are opened in the event. She said some store actually started to sell the packs and now the store owner is getting his license revoked. So apparently these packs are supposed to be strictly for the event.
January 22, 2015 3:59 a.m.
I have an Ugin altered art to sell (Italian language). Contact me https://decktutor.com/insertions/EU1ABHS23482267A/ugin-lo-spirito-drago.html
8vomit says... #2
I would keep the Ugin, for sure.
January 20, 2015 11:04 p.m.