What box to buy?
Economics forum
Posted on Sept. 2, 2013, 3:26 p.m. by Cdawg44
I'm going to buy a box (maybe to get back into Standard, maybe just for trade, maybe both) but I can't decide on which box to buy.
My first thought was to buy an M14 box, simply because it has a few money cards and it is the newest set.
But as I think about it, Return to Ravnica might be the best bet. It's got the shock lands, Sphinx's Revelation , Deathrite Shaman , and other money cards...
So I'd like to know what everyone thinks. Which box should I buy?
Absinthman I got into Standard awhile ago and had quite a few shocks, but when I decided to get out (I simply didn't enjoy the meta), I traded away most of my shocks. I'm thinking about putting together semi-competitive deck and taking it to a few FNM's.
But I do agree with you about RTR having quite a few money cards compared to M14
September 2, 2013 3:35 p.m.
beakedbard says... #4
Dragon's Maze is still quite good it has one of the most expensive cards if not the most expensive card in standard in it atm. Get one of those and you've made half the boxes price already also you can get shocklands from all ten guilds in it and from my experience the shocklands are more common (might not be true just stating from experience). As well as the fact the shocklands replace the gate so you can get a posibility of a rare/mythic a shockland and a foil of either in one pack. Admittedly the chances of that happening are low but I'd say DM has more value. Where as the other two generally have more useful cards.
Also M14 does have value cards. The new Chandra and Garruk as well as the Ooze the Vault the Hydra and the Angel are all worth $10-25. Lifebane Zombie is also steadily rising in price for the moment. Personally I'm going to wait for Theros because the spoilers out already look amazing.
September 2, 2013 3:46 p.m.
Cobthecobbler says... #5
You could pre-order a Theros box and get the return soon enough rather than instantaneously. With Thoughtseize being reprinted, and the being new and prices inflated, the return on a Theros box can be huge if you get some good stuff.
September 2, 2013 3:50 p.m.
Absinthman says... #6
@beakedbard: The number of shocks in a DGM box is actually quite unpredictable. While statistically, they appear at a similar frequency as in the other two sets, a store owner I know told me that when they opened the boxes, the number of shocks varied from 0 to 6.
September 2, 2013 3:59 p.m.
GreatSword says... #7
If you want to get back into Standard, I'd suggest simply buying the stuff you want. Buying a bunch of boosters is fun and useful when a set is new but later it's much less efficient. For ~120 bucks, you could easily get a foundation of the cards you need for the kind of deck you want post-rotation.
Either that or save your money and buy a pair of boxes when Theros drops. Sell/trade off the money cards as soon as possible before their value inevitably drops.
September 2, 2013 4:01 p.m.
the3rdH0kage says... #8
The most expensive card in Standard is Liliana of the Veil at $40 and Voice of Resurgence is at $35. I'm happy I sol/traded my 3 Voices while they were at $60. But Voice comes in at the 2nd most expensive card in Standard lol.
But I've seen 4 shocks from the same box of DGM. I have also seen 0. So yeah it really can't be definite.
September 2, 2013 4:08 p.m.
notamardybum says... #9
If you really want to buy a box, I'd go with DMG or RTR. lots of stuff from gatecrash is fairly cheap and easy to buy. RTR just has a lot of utility cards. What exactly are you planning on running for a standard deck?
September 2, 2013 4:13 p.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #10
Mathematically, the chances of getting a shockland from a DGM pack are about half of the chances of opening one in RTR or GTC. It just seems higher because of the "ooh, a piece of candy" logic.
September 2, 2013 4:31 p.m.
notamardybum Like I said, I MIGHT be getting back into Standard, but I still have no idea if that's something I want to do yet.
I would like to know if it really is less likely to pull a shock in DGM in comparison to other boxes, and I really don't want to pre-order Theros because, while the spoilers are cool, I'm not spending that much money on a set I'm not entirely sure about.
September 2, 2013 4:58 p.m.
Cobthecobbler says... #13
Well, it's got a ton of cards that are going to be inflated immensely for a short amount of time, and might I reiterate: Thoughtseize . Rather than buy a box where only 2 or 3 rares are going to be worth anything, why not buy a box where just about all of them will be something? Just seems logical to me, I don't know.
September 2, 2013 5:02 p.m.
fluffybunnypants says... #14
Economically speaking, I feel like RTR is the better buy in terms of likelihood or drawing a card worth something. With RTR you have shocklands, Angel of Serenity , Deathrite Shaman , Jace, Architect of Thought , etc. as money cards along with moderately priced rares like Mizzium Mortars , Dreadbore and Abrupt Decay . With that said, it's usually not a financially sound decision to try to get your money back after buying a box, unless it's a box of Modern Masters.
If you want to get back into standard, I would recommend waiting a month and then just buying the cards you need to make your deck.
September 2, 2013 5:03 p.m.
Cobthecobbler says... #15
If you're buying cards just to have cards, then by all means by what set has the most cards you like. But if you're looking to profit, buying Theros has the highest chances of that happening because of the initial inflation, in my opinion.
September 2, 2013 5:04 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #17
@Cobthecobbler: While release inflation is a valid point for preordering Theros, you need to be a good trader to capitalize on that inflation. I've seen plenty of people try to juggle release week speculations with volatile prices and end up losing tons of potential value.
September 2, 2013 5:06 p.m.
Cobthecobbler says... #18
Right, but with every single new set, all prices are huge compared to the fraction they are a month later. It's just what happens with all the hype. Some people I know at my LGS buy a box, open it, and sell all the rares as fast as they can to get another box and a small profit.
September 2, 2013 5:17 p.m.
Cobthecobbler says... #19
But yeah I see what you're saying. It does take a certain skill to be able to make the most out of the inflation.
September 2, 2013 5:18 p.m.
MagicalHacker says... #20
If you want to get your moneys worth, do what I do!
First get the price charts from tcgplayer for each set you want to compare.
Then copy and paste it into Excel.
Then calculate the chances of each card in a booster pack.
Add up the weighted average of price x probability of pull for both average and low.
MAAAATHS
September 2, 2013 5:39 p.m.
notamardybum says... #21
the odds of drawing shocks in DGM might be more probably than RTR, but its not any guarantee. My friend got a DGM box and didn't pull a single shock, but my box contained 3...
In all honesty, the best way to go is figure out what exactly it is you want to do (get into standard or not) then if you do want to invest into standard, decide what kind of deck you want, and just buy the singles. even though opening the packs are fun and all, usually it turns out to be a complete waste. (I recently bought a m14 fat pack and got almost nothing that is valuable (1 ajani....) where as my friend pulled an archangel of thune and kalonian hydra in the same fat pack. boosters are a gamble, that usually end up in regret.
Absinthman says... #2
I suggest RTR (or maybe Gatecrash but not so much) because if you want to start playing standard, you are going to need shock lands for your deck anyway. You have a decent chance to hit at least 4 of them in a box plus other stuff you can trade away after you decide on what you are going to play. M14 doesn't really have many valuable cards.
September 2, 2013 3:30 p.m.