What kind of value can we expect to see in MM2 packs?
Economics forum
Posted on April 26, 2015, 3:01 p.m. by ojmandias
Will MM2 packs be worthwhile buying as an investment? Will a return on the $10 per pack be possible, or will the value of the cards contained within be significantly less than what the pack is worth. Do you think there will be inflation in the MM2 price as there was in the MM1 box prices?
It's highly unlikely you'll get a good return. These packs will be in high demand. The only time I've gotten good returns from a purchase was when I got Mind Seize. Traded True-Name Nemesis for 3x Steam Vents + 2x Watery Grave. The Steam Vents alone account for the majority of the $42 True-Name Nemesis cost at the time. The current value of those shocks is $59. I also got rid of Baleful Strix for a duel deck Liliana Vess. Both the rogue and the bird have since plummeted in price. I got the beginnings of an EDH deck I use to this date and two cards from the pack more than covered what I spent on the thing. Mind Seize was dumb.
April 26, 2015 3:35 p.m.
Calculations done on the last modern masters actually had the estimated value of cards within being more than the cost of the booster. If there were to be any set you expected to get good returns on it WOULD be this one. So yes, the last MM did have cards inside worth more than the cost of the booster. HOWEVER it must be noted that as the set is opened the prices of the cards decreases.
We cannot speculate at the moment because the set isn't fully released.
In order to calculate it you add up the value of all the commons and divide by the number of commons there are, then you do the same for the uncommons, rares and then mythics. Essentially you get the average value for every common in the pack, the average for every uncommon and the average for the rare. For the mythics you then have to divide the average you get by 8. This is because only one in 8 packs will be a mythic.
April 26, 2015 3:46 p.m.
So essentially, the first few packs bought will have ROI, but then the forces of economics will conspire to lower card prices and raise pack prices to make sure players lose money on MM2. Also what's the comparison on mythic rates in MM2 and normal block packs. Is it still 1 in 8 packs will have a mythic in lets say DtK or is it much less?
April 26, 2015 4:11 p.m.
Yes indeed. Always 1 in 8 packs.
Yes indeed. The estimated value of a booster decreases over time as the cards become less rare (because people open the cards and they go into circulation).
April 26, 2015 4:14 p.m.
Named_Tawyny says... #7
Yup, that holds for most boosters, really. KTK is a good example - right when it came out, the EV on a booster box was significantly higher than the cost of a booster box. Then reality set it, and the value of individual cards dropped to reduce the EV of the box.
With MM and MM2 the situation will be slightly different, since the cards already have established values - it's entirely possible that the EV of a pack will be less than the cost from the get-go.
Lokotor says... #2
You are always very unlikely to get a ROI from buying packs. That's why Magic is profitable for Wizards. If you purchase and then never open like 20 packs you can probably sell them in like 5 years for $20 each as people will still want to buy them. But you will pretty much never get more than you paid for the pack on average.
April 26, 2015 3:27 p.m.