What will Hero's Downfall fall down to?
Economics forum
Posted on Oct. 31, 2013, 11:06 p.m. by MindAblaze
Starcity Games currently has Hero's Downfall priced at 19.99 USD. I personally think that's a little high. I'm just not sure how much.
I see removal like Abrupt Decay settling around the 10 dollar mark, and Path to Exile sits around that also, give or take a little... I'm not sure it's in the same league as these two Modern powerhouses though. What do you guys think?
Ohthenoises, that's not entirely true. Hero's downfall would be $1 if all it did was kill a walker. Some decks don't even run walkers. The fact is that it can kill a walker, AND just be Murder in just about any other situation is why it's good. I'd say it's more like murder with gravy.
October 31, 2013 11:24 p.m.
beakedbard says... #4
I personally think it will go below 5 when it rotates out i can't see it being used mainboard in all that many decks outside of Standard it will probably be used in EDH as well but i don't see much else. It will probably go down to 10 whilst its in Standard maybe lower depending on what else comes out that can deal with planeswalkers. I do see it going below 10 though considering how far Dreadbore has gone down it'll never go down that much due to instant speed but i see it going down a lot.
October 31, 2013 11:37 p.m.
GoldGhost012 says... #5
I can see it settling around $5-8. After it rotates out of Standard of course. With so many powerful planeswalkers (and creatures, but that's kind of an extra point) in Standard, I don't ever see it dropping below $12 until it rotates.
October 31, 2013 11:39 p.m.
smash10101 says... #6
Everyone is always like "oh Hero's Downfall can kill plainswalkers at instant speed" and I'm all like why does that matter? They still get to use the abilities first and it's not like anyone ever played Murder . Also, StarCity Games is notoriously overpriced, it's only $15 on TCG.
October 31, 2013 11:45 p.m.
Johnny_Normal says... #7
Its still riding the speculation wave. How long that lasts, may be until it rotates out and then drops to around $5. Not happy seeing it push $20 pisses me off as it is priced out of play.
November 1, 2013 12:03 a.m.
MindAblaze says... #8
@ smash10101 Instant speed answer to a walker is valuable because, yes, they still get to use its ability but then it's gone come your upkeep and it's one less thing to take into account before you tap any mana.
I dont think comparing it to Dreadbore is fair, because sorcery speed multicolored makes it much less valuable than instant speed mono.
I guess the question is will it see play outside of standard? An instant speed-no downside answer to any creature or planeswalker could prove valuable...but is 3 mana too late (in Modern for example) to be useful? It's almost in direct competition with something like Dismember and clearly it's debatable what the best black kill spell in modern is.
November 1, 2013 1:16 a.m.
I think anyone that runs Murder in any format, and has the money, will be replacing them with Hero's Downfall , as it is the exact same, while also being able to kill Planeswalkers. The extra versatility is the reason the price is up a bit, though I do agree $20 is a bit much. After it rotates out (nearly two years from now, lol) it should drop to the $10-$12 margin.
November 1, 2013 1:34 a.m.
smash10101 says... #10
the thing about Dismember is that you can cast it for 1 and 4 life or 1B and 2 life or 3, not just 1BB, which is much harder to do
November 1, 2013 1:36 a.m.
smash10101 says... #11
@Denial048:Does anyone run murder in anything but budget/casual?
November 1, 2013 1:37 a.m.
If you are running a multicolored deck, Hero's Downfall is not that much better than a Dreadbore . Since the planeswalker already gets to use its ability when you get to nix it, who cares if you kill it on their turn...meaning you left 3 mana open to have your $20 moment...go ahead tap out, drop a 3 cmc threat on your turn prior to the walker coming out, then Dreadbore the walker. Spending $15 more on a card that potentially takes a turn longer to cast and has marginal effect over its predecessor is just silly. Perfect example of financial idiocy: opponent casts Elspeth, Sun's Champion , in your giddiness, you Hero's Downfall it (you didn't cast that Lifebane Zombie the turn prior because you expected this $20 moment), opponent uses elspath's minus ability and kills your Desecration Demon , then uses Thoughtseize to remove your Lifebane Zombie . Yes it's Christmas land, but my point is unless you are running mono black, there are much better and less overpriced answers. Oh also, creatures kill walkers too...while also potentially winning you the game...sorry about the rant, the pricing on this stupid card is getting out of hand
November 1, 2013 2:28 a.m.
khanye Well in my magic Christmas land all my opponents don't retain priority before activating their planeswalkers and they get Hero's Downfall before getting value. I mean come on, that's about as likely a sequence as you described. It's ok to accept that it's a good card, even if it is a little overpriced right now.
The way I see it, it's an instant speed removal spell that also hits walkers, this is a control decks dream right now - it's not a surprise it sees the most play in Esper Control. Any time you can get a relevant spell for both aggro, mid-range and the control mirror, and it's still capable of making blowouts at instant speed, is a major plus. Dreadbore will hardly every 2 for 1 anyone due to its sorcery speed, commits you straight into two colors and starts looking a little awkward with all the haste and instant speed creatures these days. That four damage from Stormbreath Dragon adds up.
Right now the meta is also extremely slow, all things considered. Most of the popular decks are control or mid-range. If aggro starts becoming a thing you'll see the price come down a little as decks that run it can only afford to run ~2 of them. Lower demand will increase supply and bring down the price.
I do think cards like this always feel a little odd at the higher rarity/price, because it does only do a little more than other cards we're used to. It's not a big flashy card, most of the time it's just spot removal one for one.
November 1, 2013 3:06 a.m.
vampirelazarus says... #14
But yeah, Star City Games is a terrible organization when it comes to card prices.
I've heard stories of them buying out small store's inventory, then jacking up the price on their website.
November 1, 2013 3:12 a.m.
beakedbard says... #15
If i remember correctly someone found evidence of that with SCG. Then again that is a general business tactic so its not surprising at all. As someone said earlier use TCG when you want to find the price they tend to be a lot better on their pricing than SCG and most people tend to use the prices on TCG when trading from what I've seen.
I'm still sticking with what i said earlier though i don't think this will be higher than 5 when it leaves standard. I just don't see it being played in many Modern or Vintage decks.
November 1, 2013 3:24 a.m.
vampirelazarus says... #16
There is a store a few hours from here, that sells their cards on Ebay, and in store.
Common, right? They base their prices off of whatever the current Ebay bid for the card is, not on Tcgplayer, or Star City. Pretty nifty. I've seen some cards go super cheap from there.
November 1, 2013 3:38 a.m.
@smash10101 TCG's prices are skewed. First off, their median price is an average of all the stores listed on their site with that card in stock. So everytime a store sells out of a certain card it effects that average, and a lot of the prices those stores have listed are at a greatly reduced price because of card condition. Cards they list as "slightly played" or "heavily played" obviously can't be sold for the same price as something that is 'mint", but yet those prices are still factored into that average. Plus, the stores on their site apply to have their name listed, so its not a true representation of what it's worth because it's only using people who chose to have their name listed. A lot of those stores are small shops hoping to get their name out where more people can see it simply because the market in their area isn't large. One way they do this is to underprice things so that their name appears closer to the beginning of the list, hoping to attract more customers. Again, this effects the median price making it an inaccurate representation of what the cards are worth. You'll find that a lot of the established shops use SCG's for their prices because most consider it to be the "standard" for pricing. Also when trading people use SCG's prices for the same reason, at least around here they do.
November 1, 2013 3:40 a.m.
smash10101 says... #18
Where I'm from (Minneapolis, MN) we almost exclusively use TCG to trade with. There are one or two people who like magiccards.info, but only one or two. The only time we use SCG is if TCG doesn't have a price (usually for a promo of some sort). Also, if TCG has people selling cheaper than "market price" why would you pay more? I won't pay $10 for some card that TCG has for $8 just because one popular seller has it for $10. SCG doesn't even use aggregate pricing, they are a store, not a marketplace.
November 1, 2013 3:47 a.m.
MTGprojectzer0 says... #19
IMO, Hero's Downfall shld settle at around the $8-$10 mark. and $5-$6 post rotation. It's no Vindicate ; The latter is priced around $20-25 from last known pricing and Hero's Downfall is not a viable replacement in much of the modern removal; competing with most of the other 2-drops like GFTT, Terminate , etc. Though I expect the card to see 1-2 off plays in the 75 for gate/MBC/heavy black deck.
Abrupt Decay is a powerhouse in modern. It deals 90% of the threats in modern and is a staple 4-off in Jund and B/G/x decks. Top side, it cannot be countered. I'll would expect it to hit $20 mark in the long run, but realistically speaking, it'll settle at around $10-$12. The post-rotation increase/decrease depends on supply/demand from modern and legacy market.
Path to Exile at max will be back at the $8 mark. Due to the reprints, it'll take awhile before they see that price again.
November 1, 2013 4:25 a.m.
Why Hero's Downfall is a 20$ card right now:
Mono-B-Devotion and Esper Control are two of the momentarily top tier deck-archetypes. Both cannot run Dreadbore . So why is Hero's Downfall so good, when you have Devour Flesh , Ultimate Price and Doom Blade for those two archetypes?
The answer is plain and simple: You can easily deal with their T2 Domri Rade if you are on the play, or their T3 Xenagos or Jace or Elspeth. We have a shitload of Planeswalkers running around in standard right now. Sure they'll get one acitivation out of them but if you don't deal with Domri or Elspeth immediatly you're getting in huge trouble pretty fast! And even if they do not play a Planeswalker I still get to take one of their value creatures.
You get to see their hand at one point ( Thoughtseize , Duress , Lifebane Zombie ) and can adjust accordingly. Please view Hero's Downfall in the environment it has right now. And the environment makes it an unbelieveably good answer and therefore righteously a 15$-20$ card.
Moreover, what does MBD or Esper play in their turn, that they don't have 3 Mana open on their opponents turn? You're acting like it is BAD for these two decks to NOT tap out on their turn. WTF? Both decks are controlish type of decks. They have many reactive cards, why would I want to tap out on my turn with these two decks? It doesn't make any sense at all...
Personally I don't like Doom Blade and Ultimate Price a whole lot, as they are linked to some restrictions. Removal with restrictions is kinda 'meh' to me. Especially with all the multicolored and black creatures floating around, Blade or Price can quickly become a dead draw. And that is a thing one never wants! One could ask now "why do you run Abrupt Decay then, hurr durr." If you cannot figure it out yourself...
Hero's Downfall is a powerhouse in standard. A card that's more auto-include in any deck running black than Thoughtseize . However this can quickly change with the next set or if something new breaks the meta. But as it stands right now, MBD and Esper are huge and so is Hero's Downfall
November 1, 2013 5:13 a.m.
RickyHoeppner says... #21
It is pretty simple why the instant speed is usefull and can in alot of cases be better than dreadbore. Just think, you had nothing good to cast and have mana open. Your opponent casts a planeswalker that must be stopped before he is used twice. I would be much happier using Hero's downfall at the end of their turn and having all my mana on my turn, rather than having to wait till my turn to use dreadbore and use valuable mana.
November 1, 2013 6:57 a.m.
gnarlicide says... #22
I find this thread difficult to masturbate to...
Seriously, the card is overpriced. But I am not complaining... I pre ordered my two play sets at 3 bucks each the day they were spoiled! Nobody listened to me... I sold the other play set when they hit 10, thinking that they wouldn't go much higher... Whoopsie.
For real though, it is a good card. While khanye is right in terms of just play a cheaper card during your turn to kill a PW. That 20 dollar moment is a little more complicated than that.
RB is not used often enough as a deck for dreadbore to be used widely
Even in Junds heyday, it ran only 1 copy
Sorcery speed removal, and most people can agree here, is gay.
Two black mana is not that restricting, and if you think it is, then go play Yu-Gi-Oh. Sorry chump.
Is the card worth 20 dollars? No. Is it an answer to damn near everything? Yes.
Rant complete.
November 1, 2013 6:58 a.m.
RickyHoeppner says... #23
The utility of the instant speed ignores the fact the the walker can still use its ability faster than instantspeed removal, that is basically my point.
November 1, 2013 6:59 a.m.
RickyHoeppner - Planeswalkers can only use abilities at SORCERY speed. In the gatherer entry of every planeswalker is the following ruling:
Planeswalkers each have a number of activated abilities called loyalty abilities. You can activate a loyalty ability of a planeswalker you control only at the time you could cast a sorcery and only if you havent activated one of that planeswalkers loyalty abilities yet that turn.
Sorry to burst your bubble.
November 1, 2013 7:27 a.m.
smash10101 says... #25
@JWiley129: when you play a plainswalker you get to use one of it's abilities before passing priority, so even with instant speed removal they still get one move off.
November 1, 2013 7:30 a.m.
gnarlicide says... #26
Epochalyptik, I am getting ready for work right now... You got anything on official ruling of planeswalkers and their abilities? Namely, can you kill it before the ability gets activated? I am pretty sure you can't, but I have been wrong before on rules.
November 1, 2013 7:31 a.m.
smash10101 says... #27
@gnarlicide: There was a Q&A on it recently, and Epoch isn't the only one here who knows the rules. If you could kill a plainswalker before they got to use an ability Hero's Downfall would be well over the $15 it is today
November 1, 2013 7:33 a.m.
It will fall after its run in Standard is over. Right now an instand speed answer to creatures and PWs is bonkers. In Modern, it's a bigger investment for 3cmc, so I do see it falling after Standard.
November 1, 2013 7:38 a.m.
gnarlicide says... #29
@smash10101, I am absolutely sure there are more people that know the rules just as we'll as he does. I am not saying that people don't know the rules. What I was implying from that was that, due to his reputation/status on here, that when he says something people usually figure it is cleared up.
I'm not trying step on anyone's dick here. I hope everyone understands.
November 1, 2013 7:45 a.m.
smash10101 - My point was that RickyHoeppner's comment seemed to suggest that planeswalkers get to use their abilities at instant speed. Besides, most + or 0-abilities of planeswalkers don't end the game after one use. I'm ok with my opponent getting one Elspeth, Sun's Champion ability off, but not 3 in a row and then ultimating her to win-more.
November 1, 2013 7:46 a.m.
His comment didn't suggest that PWs got to use their abilities at instant speed. It explicitly stated that they get to activate one of the abilities before you have a chance to destroy them even with instant speed removal. Which is exactly true.
The thing that makes Hero's Downfall so much better than Dreadbore has nothing to do with stopping them using an ability once, and everything to do with being able to cast it on your opponent's turn, so you aren't having to waste 2 mana in your own main phase.
November 1, 2013 7:53 a.m.
And JWiley129 if you think a first-turn usable PW power is never particularly relevant, you've never played EDH against Sorin Markov
November 1, 2013 7:56 a.m.
Devonin - I stand by my comment as Ricky Hoeppner said, "the walker can use its ability faster than instantspeed removal." That seems to suggest Instant speed activation of a planeswalkers abilities. A better way to say it would be, "A planeswalker can use its abilities before instant speed removal."
And you are correct, I have yet to see Sorin in an EDH game. I actually don't know if there is anyone in my local meta who runs Sorin Markov . I'm sure there is, I probably just haven't met them yet. I tend to see more planeswalkers in non-EDH games than EDH games, probably something to do with the whole one-copy rule.
Also, I did say + or 0 abilities, not - abilities. That allows for Sorin Markov 's -3 ability.
November 1, 2013 8:05 a.m.
@ Devonin the thing that makes Hero's Downfall so much better than Dreadbore is, that it is mono-black. And as we all know MBD is amongst the top tier decks in the current meta.
November 1, 2013 8:25 a.m.
APPLE01DOJ says... #35
lol kicking myself for not ordering a playset when they were 5$ each.
Bought 2 for my standard deck. but personally I think it's too slow for modern because while it's good. I would still prefer Maelstrom Pulse instead. It's like Smother vs Abrupt Decay .
Probably will wait til it's in 5-8$ range before I complete the playset.
November 1, 2013 9:27 a.m.
SharuumNyan says... #36
Hero's Downfall is so good because it can replace Doom Blade for one extra mana, and deal with black creatures and planeswalkers as well. Before Theros, Warped Physique was replacing Doom Blade because it could handle more situations, but you don't see Warped Physique in standard anymore.
November 1, 2013 9:39 a.m.
@smash10101 I wasn't saying not to buy from TCG, I buy from them. I was just explaining how the prices listed on TCG don't reflect the actual value of the card. It'd be like taking the average IQ of the 100 dumbest people in your city and then saying "everyone in your city is stupid" because of it. It's misrepresented information, that's all I was getting at
November 1, 2013 10:02 a.m.
smash10101 says... #38
i disagree. tcg isn't biased as far as i can tell. keyboard not working so i'll respond in full later
November 1, 2013 10:29 a.m.
@smash10101 let me put it another way, If I decided to sell off all of my cards as an online only seller, I could go through their process and have my "shop" added to their list of stores. If I could then underprice all of my cards in hopes to sell them off quickly. Because my shop is listed on their site it would be factored into the median price and cause it to be lowered (by how much would depend on how low I priced my cards obviously). Does that mean your cards are now worth less? Of course not, but if you were basing the value of your cards off what TCG says then it would appear that way. That's why their pricing isn't accurate. You can't take the average of a select limited number of variables and get an accurate representation of something.
November 1, 2013 10:57 a.m.
smash10101 says... #40
How much you are under pricing does not effect the median value at all. And yes, it does change the value of the cards. That's the way the market works. I agree that TCG does not represent the entire market, but I do believe they do represent a large enough part of it that they can be used to figure out a reasonable value for your cards. And as with anything, if you want to sell something off quickly, don't expect to get market value, expect less. The only way to get market value for your goods is if you are patient enough to find someone who will pay market value rather than minimum value.
November 1, 2013 11:12 a.m.
Yes it would affect the median price. the median price is the total of all values for a specific card listed divided by the number of shops listed with that card. If my "shop" was added that means it would be factored into the median value. A hypothetical example: three stores are listed as having a specific card. One has it listed for $2, the other two have it listed at $4. The average price would be 2+4+4=10.... 10/3= $3.33. If I added my store and sold that same card for $1 then the average price would be 1+2+4+4=11... 11/4=$2.75. Notice how adding my shops price affected what the median price was?
Like you said: "And as with anything, if you want to sell something off quickly, don't expect to get market value, expect less". So if I offered my cards for a lower price that doesn't mean the value for those cards has dropped it just means that I'm offering mine for less than market value.
November 1, 2013 11:37 a.m.
RickyHoeppner says... #42
Guys I know that they can only use their abilities on their turn, I just meant that destroying them at the end of the opponents turn is much better than waiting til your turn to destroy.
November 1, 2013 2:16 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #43
To clear up some confusion:
When a planeswalker spell resolves, the active player regains priority. Because planeswalkers can only be cast whenever you could cast a sorcery, the active player is likely to be the same player who cast the planeswalker spell. Therefore, the active player has the option of activating one of the planeswalker's loyalty abilities. Opponents can't do anything just yet because they don't have priority. Once the active player passes priority, opponents may respond to the loyalty ability. However, destroying the planeswalker at this time will not counter the ability or otherwise remove the ability from the stack.
Let's look at the main reasons why Hero's Downfall is expensive:
- It's a rare. That doesn't make the card inherently valuable, but it means there are less of them in circulation than commons and uncommons.
- It's a direct upgrade of Murder . This card can do two things: kill creatures and kill planeswalkers. At least one of those two capabilities will be relevant in almost every game. The fact that one card can handle two different kinds of threats means players can run a playset of answers instead of a few kill spells and a few anti-planeswalker spells, and there's never the chance of drawing one and needing the other.
- It's the only spell available that does what it does at instant speed. Dreadbore exists, but it's a sorcery and can't handle threats as soon as they come up.
Hero's Downfall is likely to drop in price as more of them become available, but I expect it to stay at at least the $10 mark while in Standard.
November 1, 2013 3:41 p.m.
$10 would be appropriate...$20 is way too overpriced....
November 1, 2013 3:43 p.m.
SharuumNyan says... #45
$20 isn't overpriced as long as people are willing to pay $20.
The main reason why it's expensive is because you need this card to be competitive if you're playing a deck with anything black in it. It's in Mono-Black Devotion and Esper Control, two of the most-played decks right now. And, on top of that, you need four of them in your deck. Like with Voice of Resurgence , when you have a rare or mythic care that you absolutely have to run four of, that card is going to be more expensive.
Supply and demand will set the price.
November 1, 2013 4:09 p.m.
abenz419 - Median does not mean average. What you described is the average price of a card. The median of a set of data is the data point directly in the middle of your data set. In other words, 50% of the data is above and 50% of the data is below. In your example the median would be $4 and then $3 (in the case of an even number of data points you average the two middle points). It still makes your point, but you weren't using the correct definition.
November 1, 2013 4:15 p.m.
SharuumNyan says... #47
StarCity just reduced all of their Theros prices. All the high-dollar stuff has dropped by $5, so Hero's Downfall is now $15.
November 1, 2013 4:29 p.m.
smash10101 says... #48
@abenz419: Yes it does. And you are using the mean, not the median. I said it doesn't matter how much you under price since median is just the middle data point. And while I did say you need to underprice to sell quickly, that does affect the market price, just like the rest of the sellers do. Market price is defined as the "the current price at which an asset or service can be bought or sold." This means that if someone is selling at below market price, the price will drop, though since there is a range of prices for each card we use an average price to approximate, so any one seller will have negligible effect on a market of thousands.
November 1, 2013 4:38 p.m.
OK, I thought that's what you would say and technically you are correct, but I remember reading on TCG before that that is how they calculate the median price. So, while that is technically what median means, it is not what the median price refers to on TCG. Lets, take Abhorrent Overlord for example because it's at the top of the list of Theros cards. The high price is listed at $1.39 and the low price is $.13. The point directly in the middle of those would be $.76, but TCG has the median listed as $.32.
Also, market value is determined by supply and demand. Sellers can put any price tag they want on an item. If a store wanted to they could put a price tag of $100 on a single Hero's Downfall . But, if demand isn't high enough to match that price then it will not sell for that price. So, just because they list the card at $100 doesn't mean that's what the value of the card is. Like epoch mentioned, it's a rare, that means there will naturally be less in circulation than commons or uncommons. Then the fact that Theros is still relatively new means there are less Theros cards period in circulation, especially when you compare it to something like RTR which has been available much longer meaning more packs of RTR have been opened. So, with demand so high for the card and there being a limited number of them available it drives up the price. This is why Hero's Downfall is at the price that it is currently at. The value of the card didn't go up simply because stores decided to sell them for more, like your suggesting market value works, because they don't determine the value, the demand for the product determines the value.
November 1, 2013 6:03 p.m.
I'd also like to point out that supply and demand is the reason why people keep saying that they believe the price of the card will go down once it rotates out. I don't play a lot of legacy or modern so I'll go by what others have said, but it's believed that while it may see some use it's not going to be a card that is a "staple" in those formats. That means once it rotates out of standard demand for the card will drop which will cause the price to drop as well. Again, this is because the value is determined by demand for the card, and not by the price tag put on it by sellers. If the sellers determined the value of the card then the price would never drop, but because of supply and demand sellers will be forced to lower the price if they intend to sell their product.
Ohthenoises says... #2
It's a instant speed answer to a walker. That in itself is worth $10. Everything else is gravy. I can see it settling at $15.
October 31, 2013 11:13 p.m.