Which booster box to choose?

Economics forum

Posted on July 11, 2016, 10:05 a.m. by PTsmitty

I was thinking of convincing my wife to let met buy a booster box here, but was not sure which one I should get. I was thinking one of the next sets because I really do not want to spend more than $100. Would battle for zendikar or oath of the gatewatch provide a good possible return for me, or should I go with shadows of innistrad or even eldritch moon? Any thoughts or opinions would be much appreciated. Thanks

jpeachesd says... #2

Khans of Tarkir is the best set to buy into as it is still relatively cheap and the fetches virtually guarantee some sort of return in the future, whether you want to open it now or sell it sealed in 5 years. The Fetchlands should be able to pay for most of the ~$100 price tag depending when you offload them.

July 11, 2016 10:21 a.m.

shadow63 says... #3

If your referring to getting an expedition land from oath or bfz I think they're odds are like 1:10 of being in a box. So don't expect an expedition

July 11, 2016 10:23 a.m.

Guftders says... #4

I second Khans. Whilst it's unlikely you'll find anything that you'll want to run in a modern deck (if that format takes your fancy), fetchlands will always be relevant and as I've heard, in a year or two, they should start to slowly increase again. Well, assuming for no further reprints that is.

July 11, 2016 10:42 a.m.

Boza says... #5

I would vote for Eldritch Moon, but recent sets booster boxes rarely have a good return on them. This could help, if looking for value:

EMN EV

July 11, 2016 10:43 a.m.

MindAblaze says... #6

Obligatory "don't buy a box unless you want a lot of bulk" comment.

I do have to agree with the Khans sentiment if you're just looking for value as fetches are good. Other than that though, not much worth it.

Don't buy BFZ block hoping for expeditions, hope for Gideon or other cards that are standard playable. We still have Zendikar block in standard for another year.

July 11, 2016 11:01 a.m.

Do you play Standard, Modern, Legacy, EDH? Enjoy Limited/Draft?

From a value standpoint, BFZ and OTG have the expeditions, but is a gamble. Conspiracy is a wildly fun draft set with tons of Legacy and EDH goodies in it. The newer sets are obviously great for Standard and may have a few chase cards for EDH and other eternal formats.

I suppose it all depends on your goals as to which box you should get.

July 11, 2016 11:08 a.m.

ork_mcgork says... #8

Just wanted to jump in and say that Derium's CCG has been opening a lot of loose boxes of BFZ (so boxes not from the same case).

They've been averaging around $42-43 of value out of the box (ignoring getting lucky w/ expeditions)... so your odds on a BFZ box are an abysmal loss.

July 11, 2016 11:33 a.m.

KillDatBUG says... #9

Whichever set you wants cards from the most. Honestly, there is no real difference in "estimated value" between the Standard-legal sets.

July 11, 2016 11:33 a.m.

EmblemMan says... #10

yeah its really what cards you want more. There is no reason to buy a khans box if you want to play standard. I think that OGW has some good value in its mythics but EMN has hype value for most of its cards so really its what you want out of it.

July 11, 2016 12:16 p.m.

PTsmitty says... #11

Thanks for all the input everyone. I mostly play EDH so no need for the standard stuff. I basically want to make sure that whatever box I open is would not loose really bad in terms of value. I understand that opening booster boxes is a gamble, but just do not want to buy one that averages very low return rates. I did forget about Khans for the fetches. Is my pull rate for futches very reasonable? I would love to pull and expedition, but do realize my odds are low there.

July 11, 2016 1:40 p.m.

Most Khans boxes seemed to have 3-4 fetches on average in my experience. Although if you want to open a standard set, my vote is either for the new one coming out or Oath of the Gatewatch, simply because Oath has lots of playable rares outside of standard. Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet is one of the more expensive cards in standard atm and has already made the jump into modern, and the eldrazi from Oath are played in Modern and Legacy, so they might rise in price in the future since they're played as 4-ofs in their respective decks. Oath of Nissa is also starting to see play outside of standard. If you're looking for short-term value, you can go for the new set. If you want a box with lots of playables, I'm partial to Oath.

July 11, 2016 2 p.m.

EmblemMan says... #13

Yeah then I would go for khans mainly because EVs on most standard sets right now are pretty low and fetches are somewhat easy to trade if you dont want them and they are rares. Every other box is banking on mythics or expeditions.

July 11, 2016 2:16 p.m.

Bfz has best chance to make money with expeditions, full art lands, planeswalkers and a few good rares.

July 11, 2016 2:48 p.m.

Atony1400 says... #15

Lastdaysgunslinger, Darium's last 9 YouTube videos on cracking BFZ boxes say otherwise!

For example: Box #9

By the way, I also vouch for Khans!

July 11, 2016 7:17 p.m. Edited.

clayperce says... #16

PTsmitty,
This question comes up a lot, so I've actually put a spreadsheet together that lays it all out.

On average, DTK is almost always good value. BFZ is 83% bad (no Expedition), but 14% great (most Expeditions) and 3% amazing (blue fetchland Expedition). SOI and OGW are just a little better than break-even.

More info over on this thread

July 11, 2016 8:02 p.m. Edited.

Gidgetimer says... #17

Since you play mostly EDH I'd say Khans. There are fetches that are great in a format where a 3 color deck can contain up to 10 lands that have a basic type but produce 2 colors of mana. Even ignoring ABUR duals, as most people do, shard decks have 7 fetchable cards that tap for 2 colors of mana and an on color fetch can get any of them. There are also interesting shard legendaries that could be your commander or even one of the 99.

July 11, 2016 8:41 p.m.

Dredge4life says... #18

Khans, no question.

July 16, 2016 10:25 a.m.

This discussion has been closed