Which shockland should I invest in
Economics forum
Posted on July 11, 2014, 7:53 a.m. by cocochannel
After Getting help with trading and investment, I was wondering which exact fetchlands/shocklands I should invest in.
Anything you will actually play, unless you only intend to move them. If you intend to not hold, take the above advice.
July 11, 2014 8:06 a.m.
AnagonLordofSnakes - yep. Steam Vents is one of the most highly played cards in modern.
July 11, 2014 8:32 a.m.
Nigeltastic says... #6
Red /blue and green/black could be argued to be the most popular color combinations in eternal formats I think
July 11, 2014 9:45 a.m.
JakeHarlow says... #7
True. But all shocks are great and exciting. I keep mine when I can.
July 11, 2014 9:56 a.m.
They will all rise steadily after rotation so any are good. Obviously the ones that are played heavily in modern ie Steam Vents and Overgrown Tomb.
July 11, 2014 11:03 a.m.
Shocks are not a good investment unless you plan on holding them a really long time. Folks have wised up about rotation, stuff that's not playable in extended formats has been tanking, but if you look at stuff like shock lands or Abrupt Decay they have been flat or increasing in price as we get closer to rotation.
They have basically bottomed out at $10, that might slip another dollar or two, but I don't think it will go much further. It's then going to take quite a while for them to rebound and crawl back up to $15 or $20 where you might actually make some money on them.
If shocks hit $5 I would say for for it, otherwise you're better off investing on some other spec card. Like see what gets good play at the first legal M15 tournaments and buy up those.
July 11, 2014 11:11 a.m.
Well, it depends on what you will use. If you play Bant, invest in Bant colored stuff, but if you just buy to sell, buy stuff with blue.
July 11, 2014 11:11 a.m.
Hmmmm shocks and Abrupt Decay , all cards that see tons of play in standard and in modern...... can't imagine why they haven't dropped below $10, lol.
And despite what all the modern players will tell you, there will be an increase in supply around rotation. If all of your knowledge came from this site then yeah it looks like everyone and there mother has read or been told to hold on to their shocks. but the number of people who contribute on here on a regular basis (the ones you see saying to hold on to them) only represent a minuscule percentage of magic players. So while it appears that everyone is saying hold on to them, in reality its the same few people saying it over and over again to a small insignificant number of people (tappedout users). Even with wizards promoting the modern format there are still literally thousands upon thousands more standard players than there are modern players. Those players who play standard exclusively will have no need for shocklands. Even if people have wised up some the standard only players will still be getting rid of their copies of shocks when rotation comes. For them, their options are keep a card they'll never use again (till a reprint) or they can get rid of it as rotation comes to actually get some value from them. The standard only player isn't going to wait years for them to appreciate, because acquiring the newest and most powerful cards becomes a priority over holding onto a card for a couple years so they can double their money / investment, (about $10).
July 11, 2014 11:55 a.m.
Its confirmatory bias. Peopel think that because they htink some way all other people do - and because were surrounded by people that agree on this site they think the situation is worse than it is.
People WILL sell. Prices will stay low.
Shocklands used to be $40 pre reprint. Someone argued with me the other day but they were wrong according to price trackers.
July 11, 2014 12:27 p.m.
PreZchoICE1 says... #14
Im in agreeance that standard only players will most definitely be offloading their shocks after rotation. prices may dip a little more- maybe a dollar or two and will stay low probably thru the winter months and start to climb again next spring when all the modern players (or those wanting to get into modern over this summer) have snapped them all up for the most part.
Another thing ppl are overlooking is how popular the shocks are in EDH. they are basically a staple these days for that format so while there will definitely be sellers- there will most certainly be buyers which should keep the price right around where it is now and keep interest in them high.
I'd wait til just before/after rotation to invest too heavily though.
July 11, 2014 12:36 p.m.
Right now I would look I to buying foils of the shock lands. They will enevitable rise much higher than normal shocklands.
July 11, 2014 12:51 p.m.
abenz419 While it's certainly important to take the larger pool of players into account, for instance this is what typically keeps a lot of casual cards a few bucks higher than to be expected, the actual price charts for shocklands and cards like Abrupt Decay don't agree with your assessment at all.
Compare these.
Boros Reckoner. A popular enough standard card that's not going to transition into other formats much. It has followed the typical curve of such cards as they start to tank in value around the 1st and 2nd follow-up sets.
Abrupt Decay on the other hand a card that's seeing heavy play across constructed formats and has actually been increasing in value as we approach rotation.
Snapcaster Mage maybe be a good recent analogue for what I expect out of shocklands. There's a slightly softening in value as the card rotates, but it's pretty flat overall. I think this is indicative of the greater magic playing community being conscience that these cards do have value outside of Standard and even if they don't play in these formats they keep them in their binders and such rather than loosing a bunch of value on them to dump them.
I think ~$10 shocklands will hit $7-8 at the lowest.
July 11, 2014 4:49 p.m.
Slycne - they're rising in value already because people aren't opening ravnica anymore. In fact it's out of print. Also rock (the deck that wants decay) is a deck that's constantly evolving.
July 11, 2014 4:57 p.m.
that's kind of a weak argument there... First off as you pointed out, Boros Reckoner only sees play in standard. It's also not played in any of the top decks, Mono Black devotion, U/W/x control, R/G or jund monsters, or mono blue devotion. That alone speaks volumes for why the price of the reckoner is already dropping. Not because of the impending rotation.
Then, again as you pointed out, Abrupt Decay sees lots of play in multiple formats and it's use continues to grow. Again, this speaks volumes for why it's price hasn't fallen and may even be slightly rising. It's supply and demand, people want abrupt decay no matter what format they're playing in. The price of a card under high demand is not going to fall. In fact a card under high demand will almost always rise in price... see every card that spiked at the beginning of the year for examples.
The price of these cards is effected by their use, not the upcoming rotation.
ChiefBell says... #2
Anything with blue.
July 11, 2014 7:56 a.m.