Why is Glimpse the Unthinkable such an expensive card?
Economics forum
Posted on July 17, 2015, 4:40 p.m. by HolyFalcon
It's good, sure, but Mind Sculpt is less color intensive for 3 less cards. It can target you, but not much delve spells is played in modern, except Tombstalker, which is a cheap card, so if that's cheap, why isn't this? I'm guessing it's because of supply, but mill isn't even a widely played deck. There's probably some insane benefit I'm missing, so please explain to me why this is a 30$ card.
buildingadeck says... #3
It's partially, as you mentioned, because of supply, but it's also partially because of efficiency. Condemn and Swords to Plowshares are exactly the same excepting a few words, so why is Swords much more expensive? Also, Modern doesn't play as much Delve, sure (but you did forget Murderous Cut and Tasigur, the Golden Fang), but Life from the Loam/dredge decks still have a presence in the format. Additionally, the interaction between a T1 Jace's Phantasm and a T2 Glimpse the Unthinkable is pretty incredible.
Basically, the reason is because it is strictly better than Mind Sculpt and Breaking. Think of it this way, which is better: Shock or Lightning Bolt?
July 17, 2015 4:53 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #4
buildingadeck Those comparaisons don't really work because both Bolt and Swords are vastly played cards. This one fits in ONE deck in ONE format.
To answer the question, I think that it's because of such a low supply. But I agree, it shouldn't be that price. Especially since really only one deck plays it, and that deck doesn't see much success.
July 17, 2015 5:02 p.m.
buildingadeck says... #5
Perhaps part of the reason mill sees little success is because the cards printed for it suck? Lightning Bolt does 3 damage for 1 mana. That is ~1/7 of your life. Tome Scour removes five cards from a player's library. In other words, 1/12 of his/her deck.
My point is that, despite mill's unplayability, it is literally the only mill card that can significantly impact a game as a T2 play. And, like you said, it is a supply thing.
There are people who enjoy mill, and for them, it is the God of mill cards.
July 17, 2015 5:07 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #6
"There are people who enjoy mill, and for them, it is the God of mill cards."
DAT'S ME!! (But just saying, Archive Trap is the god of mill cards. And it's five dollars.)
July 17, 2015 5:09 p.m.
buildingadeck says... #7
Famous, that's true. Trap is the best. But Glimpse is a little more consistent where Trap might sit in your hand a few turns, esp. in game 2.
July 17, 2015 5:10 p.m.
NoPantsParade says... #8
It's also played in casual decks outside of modern. EDH mill decks play it, too. Personally it's not a $30 card to me. It's about a $10 or so card to me.
July 17, 2015 5:21 p.m.
buildingadeck hit the nail on the head. You have to look at mill cards as a percentage.
Mill is basically a burn deck: you target your opponent with spells and their measurable "life" total goes down, where you win once you cast your final spell to make that total zero.
With Mill, your opponent starts the game at 53 life with a weird Phyrexian Arena in their command zone.
Glimpse the Unthinkable does 10 out of 53 points of damage, or 18.86% of their life total, for 2 mana.
Breaking / Entering does 8/53 = 15.09% for 2 mana.
Mind Sculpt = 13.2%
Archive Trap = 24.52% for 5 or 0 mana.
Tome Scour = 9.4% for 1 mana.
Compare that to burn spells:
Lightning Bolt: 3 damage for 1 mana out of 20 life points = 15%
Boros Charm: 4/20 = 20% for 2 mana.
The ratio of "damage" to "life" on Glimpse the Unthinkable is unprecedented among the U/B "Burn" spells. The only other card that does more damage is Archive Trap, which is situational or expensive to cast. Mill doesn't have anything close to Lightning Bolt (you would need a 1 mana, mill 8 cards spell), but Glimpse the Unthinkable does match Boros Charm in terms of damage and value.
July 17, 2015 6:16 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #10
(Not here to discuss Mill, but just a little parentheses: Mill is quite different from burn in that it actually takes away ressources from the opponent instead of life points, and that it's quite hard to defend against. It doesn't take more than a well placed Feed the Clan to win against most burn decks. Such answers are much rarer for Mill, and the ones that exist are not played, with the exception of an eldrazi titan or two. Also, mill uses control elements and politics to get through, whereas burn is pretty much its namesake - burn to the face. All this to say that they are quite different decks. End of parentheses.)
July 17, 2015 6:46 p.m. Edited.
lagotripha says... #11
(also, in comparisons between mill and burn where burn is mostly also removal, decent mill is basically also draw cards if you target yourself and run graveyard reccursion). Glimpse the unthinkable is expensive because its the best mill spell and some speculators think it might, eventually become a must have in modern or legacy (read, when wizards actually produces a two mana throught scour that mills 4), so they bought all of them, driving the price sky high. And because its not played, wizards aren't gonna include it in something like modern masters, so It'll retain its value. Basically, some people are treating it as a gold brick. And because they'll spend like its a gold brik, the price stays high. One day you'll meet someone who has a folder of these things.
July 19, 2015 11:05 a.m.
I'm a mill players and it comes to supply of them and also it is the best mill card it sounds weird but 3 extra cards for the same mana is huge, it comes down to a lot of times mill is a few cards short. Also Archive trap may seem better there are a lot of times it can be a slow or dead card but to be fair it is still good especially when I had 4 in my opening hand and destroyed my opponent.
NoPantsParade says... #2
Supply, casual appeal. I'd imagine that's why it's so expensive for what it is.
July 17, 2015 4:48 p.m.