Will Ugin, the Spirit Dragon keep its $28 price tag?
Economics forum
Posted on Jan. 6, 2015, 2:31 a.m. by Oww99
I dont feel it will. Its not standard viable (I dont think), and he is very narrow in Modern. He is a Commander yes, but aside from that what is he? He's pure hype, and he'll drop from $28 to $10-$15. I think that at least. Am I right or wrong?
JakeHarlow says... #3
He's probably a post-hype $20-$24 walker unless he finds a hyper competitive role in a format. He's an excellent EDH card, and tons of folks are going to want one or more. He's colorless, and thus every EDH deck could conceivably use him. So I think demand will be moderate from that alone. There's also collectors. I mean...this is freaking Ugin. People are hype as hell about him. If a ton are opened such that demand is outstripped then he could go to $14 maybe. Don't expect him to drop too much for a month or two though. He might not be that playable in Standard, but that's only part of the story as far as player demand goes. I certainly hope to grab one at prerelease.
January 6, 2015 2:43 a.m.
zyphermage says... #4
Well I am going to measure this off Sorin Markov current price. He is 15$ and so Ugin, which is colorless obviously, will probably be closer to $20 eternally. I think he will probably only see value because of collectors and edh. Most people popping him that really only care bout standard will be trading them away.
January 6, 2015 3:58 a.m.
Why are you comparing it to a card that costs 2 mana less, with a better middle a ability, and arguably ult?
January 6, 2015 4:54 a.m.
zyphermage says... #6
ummm just no on the ult thing. EDH draw 7 put them into play?
Nicol Bolas would be a better comparison for cmc but it is also 3 colors and has been printed twice, one in a duel deck. I am comparing it because of it being a planeswalker for commander and that isn't commanderable.
There are no colorless planeswalkers. I think I was fairly accurate for picking a price. I just picked him because why not? Since you are so worried about it, what would you compare it too then?
January 6, 2015 6:11 a.m.
zyphermage, if I was you, I would have compared him to Karn Liberated :)
January 6, 2015 6:17 a.m.
zyphermage says... #8
I forgot Karn Liberated but still I don't think that is a fair comparison. I don't think it will be a $45 card like karn. Well I am sure one day it will be because most things just go up and up, but not anytime soon. I think Ugin will be EDH, and Karn will be EDH and modern. I guess the big question is he modern viable in tron as far as how much he will be worth.
No edit post button is kind of meh.
January 6, 2015 6:19 a.m.
zyphermage says... #9
I was using the comparison from what format they are played in. Karn is a playset in modern tron, I think. Ugin, people will want 1 of for commander or whatever. I don't think it will replace karn in tron. This is a card pricing post not a card comparison one anyways.... That is why I chose Sorin Markov
January 6, 2015 6:23 a.m.
Sorry, I didn't read that he puts 7 things into play. If it was just draw 7 then it would be like good but not game breaking.
January 6, 2015 6:40 a.m.
Unlikely due to the high casting cost, but I wouldn't be surprised if he found a home in some control shell. There's something to be said about going to 9 Loyalty after activating the +2. I mean, dang... 9's a lot. Hope you run Hero's Downfall.
January 6, 2015 7:16 a.m.
I don't see how this could not become a staple in a few Modern Tron variants.
For 1 mana more than Karn, this thing wipes most boards... and not just creatures, but any Enchantments that may be limiting/threatening, such as Blood Moon, Spreading Seas, Intangible Virtue... as well as almost all PW's.
I don't think he'll be a replacement for Karn, but a good 1-2 of in Tron decks.
I know that the 1 mana difference can be big, due to the fact that Karn fits perfectly into 7 mana slot for the Urza's Tower, Urza's Power Plant, Urza's Mine trio... but I think that Ugin will be a pereft card for winning a come-from-behind game.
January 6, 2015 9:23 a.m.
KrosanTusker says... #13
Ugin is speculated to see play instead of a fourth Oblivion Stone, but I don't think his value will be very high. The $28 price tag is prerelease hype, plain and simple.
January 6, 2015 11:35 a.m.
SimicPower says... #14
If I recall, while in standard Karn Liberated as about $10 and Sorin Markov about $6. I am guessing Ugin will go down to $10-15 post-hype. Then, if he sees play in eternal, his price may rise.
January 6, 2015 11:30 p.m.
Ive seen preorders at 19.99 and dont expect him to be more than that
January 8, 2015 3:31 a.m.
AndrewIsKing says... #16
Nissa world waker started as a $40 card but now it's $18, I would not be surprised if ugin drops to $10-15
January 11, 2015 9:43 p.m.
JexInfinite says... #17
It's a good card, but that's what it is. Not a $28 card, more like $10.
January 12, 2015 2:52 p.m.
Schuesseled says... #18
this thing will see a lot lay in edh, otherwise meh. standard maybe 1 or 2 of
January 12, 2015 3:59 p.m.
FWIW, I have a spare copy that I've been trying to trade, and I can't give this thing away. Every trade I've offered has been rejected. Anecdotal evidence, but I think the traders are waiting for it to come down as well. Also, if anybody wants to trade with me let me know :)
February 13, 2015 2:42 a.m.
And yet I'm watching him get played turn 4 in standard and wreck house, and his "28 dollar pure hype" price tag is sold out on SCG at $33.95.
I love looking at economics threads after the fact.
February 13, 2015 9:49 a.m.
He is being forced to be viable. 8 CMC should make him unplayable in all reality, but people want to play Ugin because its Ugin. I think he's cool, and I'm not salty about it, but I feel like he's a little forced and will go down later.
February 13, 2015 10:38 a.m.
Mono-green ramp is not forcing him into viability. You ramp to Ugin with Frontier Siege on Khans. Or to Hornet Queen with it on Dragons, and it's happening reliably by turn 4.
February 13, 2015 1 p.m.
The foils will probably stay expensive, they look fucking cool and EDH players love their foils. If you have a lot of Ugin's, I would trade them in for foils since people will never buy more than 1.
February 14, 2015 11:49 a.m.
Im gunna run him in tron, but i cant imagine he will hold a 28$ pricetag forever. Im guessing like 12-15$ once the hype dies down some
February 15, 2015 10:05 a.m.
Didgeridooda says... #26
I still think there is no way he falls under 18-20 bucks.
February 15, 2015 10:41 a.m.
If hes played in standard he won't be falling much any time soon.
February 15, 2015 10:53 a.m.
If hes played in Standard competitively then yes, but if there is just a bunch of sub-par mono-green decks trying to make him good he will go down. 8 CMC should wreck Standard, and if he doesnt go down now he will when Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx is gone. I am running him in my Tron as a 2 of, and so are others, so he wont be like Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded, but he in no way warrens a $33 price tag. Its just because he is Ugin, and he is lore hype.
February 15, 2015 5:10 p.m.
SimicPower says... #29
I agree with Oww99. By DTK release, he will probably be in the $15-$20 range.
February 16, 2015 2:49 a.m.
I'm playing green ramp for standard, and 8 mana isn't much at all(I think I got to 40+ mana on turn 6). If I could afford Ugin, I'd get a few because they'd give direct damage; it's not something colors other than red normally gets.
maiden77 says... #2
He cannot be a commander, so that has no bearing. He will be popular in commander, but i think his price will definitely drop
January 6, 2015 2:41 a.m.