Yes, another Fetch thread
Economics forum
Posted on Aug. 16, 2014, 8:53 a.m. by Named_Tawyny
I've been percolating this in my head for a bit, and I thought I'd seek the advice of those more in tune with that side of magic for a while.
Fetches will be reprinted. Maybe (Probably) not in KTK, maybe not in M16, but eventually, they will be reprinted. (I'd assume in a non-core, so that they can spread them out over three sets; but that's neither here nor there.)
What does this do for standard? Will shops be able/willing to keep pack prices at 3/$10, or will the lure of multiple chase rares (they're not going to make them mythic, would they?) change the economics from that of buying singles of what you need, to buying packs packs packs, and push up the price?
If the latter, that could be very bad for limited players who don't want to spend $50 on a draft (or X).
Thoughts?
Named_Tawyny says... #3
That's good.
Although I do wonder if having a flood of $80 rares in a set would push the EV above $4/pack. That would make things interesting.
August 16, 2014 9:31 a.m.
Gidgetimer says... #4
You have approximately a 2/121 chance of pulling any given rare from a large set. So if the entire cycle were in a coreset that would be 20/121 cards would be a fetch. If we use the $80 average you used it would be $1600 worth of cards in $484 worth of packs. Half the set is of course half the value so that would be $800 in $484.
Since again I don't see packs going up this means fetches should be going down to a maximum of $50 average if they are split and $25 if they aren't.
August 16, 2014 9:42 a.m.
No because standard sets are widely available so there will be ample supply.
August 16, 2014 10:02 a.m.
NobodyPicksBulbasaur says... #6
The block that reprints fetches will be opened so much that their value will plummet to reasonable levels. Probably around $20 a piece after they stabilize. Maybe $30 for the blue ones.
August 16, 2014 11:17 a.m.
Yeah, the fetch prices will plummet once they're in a new standard legal set. Just look at the prices for the shock lands (currently). Are they any less essential for modern play?
August 16, 2014 11:31 a.m.
Servo_Token says... #8
Going off of this shockland argument, you were, once upon a time, able to pick up your Steam Vents for $5 a piece. This is one of the two most used shocks in modern (the other being Overgrown Tomb ). If we see a repeat pattern with fetches, I don't expect to see them at anything over $25 when they are at their peak of being opened.
August 16, 2014 11:58 a.m.
Named_Tawyny says... #9
Ahh. That make sense.
I was imagining it would run like Mutavault which doubled in the six months following its reprinting, as way more players wanted it suddenly.
August 16, 2014 12:10 p.m.
Mutavault is an interesting counter point. It sees far less modern play, but it's in almost every standard deck. The various fetches will be more diffused. I also imagine that the core sets are opened far less frequently than the block sets.
August 16, 2014 12:21 p.m.
No comment, except to say congrats on having a well-phrased, interesting thread-start for an otherwise over-mentioned, oft-debated, rarely-constructive topic. I enjoy reading these un-hype, sound-logic discussions (I also enjoy hyphens).
August 16, 2014 7:23 p.m.
Fetches HAVE to come back. Everyone wants them to. As everyone has said, fetches will drop to probably $20 since they're no longer "hard to find". Also, there's no way the specific set's pack prices will be high. I remember buying Zendikar packs for $5 a piece back when the current Standard was Return to Ravnica/Innistrad.
August 17, 2014 8:27 p.m.
Arorsthrar says... #17
It's a stretch to say that everyone wants fetches to come back. I sure don't want them to ever get reprinted. As far what It'll do to standard... not much. Their main power is their interaction with Shocks and Duals. IMO, they aren't the best dual lands on their own. They'd probably be hyped a ton though just like Darksteel Citadel and Ornithopter are currently being hyped.
August 20, 2014 12:02 a.m.
Named_Tawyny says... #18
Out of interest, why don't you want fetches to come back?
Just protecting your investment, or something deeper?
August 20, 2014 12:04 a.m.
The question is whether they print just the enemy duals or all 10. Also, it depends on which set they print them in. A core set printing means that there will not be as many packs open as a block set. A core set is drafted only for a couple of months before people start drafting the new block. So, the impact on pricing will depend on where they are printed.
As for the price of packs, I suggest you find yourself a new LGS if your owner is jacking up the price of packs. Packs that are still in standard should never be sold higher than their SRP. If your LGS owner jacks up the price, talk to all your players and have them back you up when you let him/her know that you will buy your products online or wall-mart if they don't smarten up. I got FTV:20 at SRP from my LGS because the owner makes his profit from the product regardless and he makes those who shop there loyal.
Gidgetimer says... #2
Products that don't go exclusively to card shops are much harder for them to mark up. The maximum they could go up would be to the MSRP of $4 a pack before people with no reason to be loyal start getting them from the big box stores. They could probably go up to $4.50 before their most loyal customers start looking elsewhere.
The C13 Mind Seize decks were able to go to 200% of their MSRP because of low amount that were in stock. I don't foresee big box stores selling out of packs allowing a set to do the same.
August 16, 2014 9:13 a.m.