[Community Discussion]: The official Fate Reforged prerelease/release discussion
Limited forum
Posted on Jan. 15, 2015, 8:20 p.m. by Epochalyptik
This will be the official one-thread-covers-all discussion for Fate Reforged prerelease and release events. Feel free to share what clan you'll choose, what mechanics might be viable, what cards are the best for Limited, and how your events went!
Fate Reforged prerelease/release events:
Prerelease Events: January 17-18, 2015
Release Date: January 23, 2015
Fate Reforged cards:
MTGSalvation spoiler list
MythicSpoiler spoiler list
MagicSpoiler spoiler list
The Prerelease
Prerelease eventsFate Reforged prerelease primer
Fate Reforged prerelease information for Tournament Organizers
Prerelease events will be held on the weekend of January 17 and Jaunary 18. They will be Sealed Deck events, which means players will receive six booster packs and must construct decks of at least 40 cards using the cards from their booster packs and any number of basic lands.
Prerelease pack contents:
- 4x FRF booster packs
- 1x KTK booster pack
- 1x seeded clan booster pack
- Event materials
At the event, you will pick a clan. You'll be given a small box with that clan's insignia; this "prerelease pack" contains your boosters and other event materials. In it, you'll find one "seeded booster" (a plastic-wrapped booster of semi-random cards related to the clan you chose) and the rest of your Sealed Deck boosters. The seeded booster will also contain your promo card, which will be clan-related and may be used in your deck.
Yea I'm pretty excited as well. Prerelease is some of my favorite magic a lot of the times
January 15, 2015 9:17 p.m.
Im going azban for 1st, temur for second event, and sultari for third event if i can make it. I went azban as its my favorite draft clan, but understand it might not be as good with limited khan cards.
Temur cause i like to beat face with fatties.
Sultari as I like the power of the commons. Also like map the wastes.
January 15, 2015 10:06 p.m.
BinaryCortex says... #5
I am only going to get to do one event, so I am going to go Temur, but with an open mind to other color combos.
January 15, 2015 10:13 p.m.
FatherLiir says... #6
I unfortunetly must dog sit this weekend so will be unable to hit up any of my LGS pre releases. I'm hoping boxes will be available next week for purchase at the release and we will see what happens then. :)
January 15, 2015 10:36 p.m.
TrystonSpencer says... #7
Im definently rolling jeskai! Here is a list of commons/uncommons to be looked out for in limited FRF in my opinion
Blue
White
Red
Black
Green
Playing 2 headed!
January 15, 2015 11:01 p.m.
ork_mcgork says... #8
I'm not getting to go to prerelease because of work and other commitments but for Launch party my store does sealed (just using the prerelease boxes) so I'll be picking Abzan. I liked Mardu for KTK since I thought Raid was a fun/interesting limited mechanic, and I'm picking Abzan for FRF because I think Bolster is neat, and there's a lot of W, B, and G cards that look awesome in all levels of rarity.
January 16, 2015 1:30 a.m.
Hjaltrohir says... #9
I am going to be rocking Jeskai at my prerelease (and hoping I dont go 1-5 like last time :$)
January 16, 2015 2:06 a.m.
I just hope I get good pulls. Khans prerelease was not kind to me
January 16, 2015 3:56 a.m.
It looks like they did a better job babalancing this set for limited. All colors have 10+ usable commons/uncommons. I think with the 2 dual colored spells Azban has a little better chance to pull good commons/uncommons, but the other colors have more powerful spells imho. Last prerelease, Azban was the first to sell out at my lgs, and that was at the midnight event.
January 16, 2015 8:06 a.m.
Gidgetimer says... #13
I feel that Azban is going to be the strongest clan for pre-release. The bombs seem to be fairly well distributed throughout the colors so that puts the ball firmly in the court of removal being the deciding factor, especially with board stalls being common at pre-release.
White and black are traditionally the strongest colors for removal and that is no exception here. Sandblast, Hooded Assassin, Reach of Shadows, Douse in Gloom, and Harsh Sustenance all at common. Since this is an enemy pairing that means that it can fit into two clans, in this case either Mardu or Azban. This leaves the deciding factor being whether red or green has the better removal.
Red has by far the strongest common removal between these two colors with Bathe in Dragonfire. However; I feel that green wins the contest since reds only other removal is Collateral Damage and having to two for one yourself is only ever occasionally good. Compare this to green giving you access to: a way to end air stalls with Return to the Earth; a fight effect with Hunt the Weak; and the first twerk fight effect in the form of Grim Contest.
January 16, 2015 8:31 a.m.
The last few pre-releases, I have used LSV's Limited Set Review to calculate the strengths of the different colors/clans.
This set, the color's weighted average card strengths are:
= 5.224
= 4.879
= 4.586
= 4.414
= 4.225
For 2-color decks, this makes the average strength: = 5.052 = 4.905 = 4.819 = 4.732 = 4.724 = 4.646 = 4.552 = 4.5 = 4.46 = 4.319
Then, going by color's available in the clans, you come out with my pick order...
Jeskai = 4.839
Sultai = 4.678
Temur = 4.626
Mardu = 4.621
Abzan = 4.563
This is based on the assumption of running 2 color deck, with a possible splash of a third. (Unlike KTK, FRF is much less 3 color... splash will not be uncommon due to KTK pack and some 3-color lean in FRF)
A lot of calculations, I know... buy I have correctly predicted the first place color/clan for my LGS in the last 3 pre-releases.
January 16, 2015 9:18 a.m.
Zorroziggy says... #17
I'm new to prereleases, but I've been to one booster draft. Can anyone tell me what time they usually begin on each day and how long they last?
January 16, 2015 9:50 a.m.
Rayenous - Like that method in theory but when dealing with such small differences surely it's just statistically insignificant. The difference between 4.84 (Jeskai) and 4.68 (Sultai) is 0.16. That's equivalent to about 3% difference. Is that really enough to make a bold claim?
January 16, 2015 9:52 a.m.
Zorroziggy - that's entirely dependent on the shop. My LGS starts one at 9, and one at 3.
Each lasts about 5 hours.
But that's just my LGS
January 16, 2015 9:54 a.m.
While true that the difference seems small... it's still a difference.
It's like the comparison of whether a deck should run Fetchlands for the deck thinning.
The amount of card advantage has been show to be 1 extra card in about every 20 turns... and games just don't go to turn 20... but it's still a slight advantage. - The real question should be, "Is the life loss worth the slight advantage?".
The real question here is not, "Is there a strength difference?"... the real question is, "Do you value the strength difference over your preferred play style?", as well as "Do I agree with the ratings given by LSV?" - If you are more comfortable with an aggressive creature play style over a controlling or 'combat-trick' spell based play style, then you should probably still prefer Mardu over Jeskai, even if the stats say Jeskai "should" be stronger.
January 16, 2015 10:07 a.m.
I understand what you're saying. That marginal increase is at least something and manifests itself over multiple games.
January 16, 2015 10:09 a.m.
Hehe manifest. I see what you did there.
I think I'm gonna go with Mardu just because I really like the dash mechanic. But if not sultai is my choice. I'm split. It'll probably be a game time decision.
January 16, 2015 10:29 a.m.
Rayenous ~ while I can appreciate a statistical stance on color strength, I honestly don't put a lot of stock in it because it really boils down to what you pull. I know the sealed pack is supposed to be mostly on color, but what you pull from packs can completely screw you. If you pick jeskai based on stats but pull a bunch of black and red cards that can really hurt your chances whereas if I pick abzan and pul a lot of on color cards I have the edge.
I don't mean to question your method. Only demonstrate that it really boils down to luck a lot of the time. Skill at building not withstanding of course.
January 16, 2015 12:06 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #27
I've never watched LSV's ratings although it seems that it would be more draft focused since that is a much more common way to play than seeded or even sealed. The way the seeded boosters work it seems like you would be much more likely to get cards marked with the clan's symbol so that makes each seeded booster lean toward the "primary" color of the clan. Using the LSV's rankings it seems that the clans would come out:
Jeskai
Azban (Yes I'm doing it on purpose to annoy people now since using "font size=" annoys me. Also it's "it's" not "its" FFS. Yay I can spell real words better than made up ones.)
Sultai
Mardu
Temur
This doesn't differ from the simple averaging list by much but I am just trying to present an alternate way to look at it. In the end I don't think any one way to pick a clan is going to come out superior. Play skill and deckbuilding strength are going to be much more important. Clan choice is only determining 1/6 packs so people may not even end up playing 3 color or the clan they picked anyway.
January 16, 2015 12:18 p.m.
MinscAndBoo says... #28
I tend to ignore the theorycraft and play the clan/guild/color I like. A skilled player can build a competitive deck with most any pool. The difference between good and great decks comes down to your cards' coherence. If you pull strong RG in a set where WU is favored to win, you should still go Gruul.
Don't forget to build a side deck if you get the chance! Open with Jeskai enchantment fliers, then swap it for Mardu aggro when they bring in Return to Earth. Tee hee!
January 16, 2015 12:33 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #30
I assume Return to the Earth was the intended card to make dead with that swap?
January 16, 2015 12:39 p.m.
Just in case anyone was wondering, I found out more info about the Seeded packs in the Pre-Release Sealed Clan boxes. The seeded pack is a mix of both FRF and KTK, but a few more KTK cards then FRF. Here's a video of an un-boxing for details.
http://youtu.be/4yu-LXdAGEU
January 16, 2015 12:42 p.m.
I could get really shitty and point out that taking grammar advice from someone who confuses an adjective for a noun is ironic, but I'll just leave it.
January 16, 2015 12:45 p.m.
MinscAndBoo says... #33
Hah, yeah--Return to the Earth. Good card, as there are plenty of both dragons and enchantments in this format.
January 16, 2015 12:47 p.m.
Gidgetimer says... #34
It it after midnight in the pacific islands already? Hell yeah.
January 16, 2015 12:48 p.m.
BinaryCortex says... #35
You may have had Abzan rated last and Jeskai first, but keep in mind, the 2 best cards in the set Monastery Mentor and Soulfire Grand Master can also be used by Abzan, and Dragonscale General looks to be fairly insane if you are the least bit aggressive. Even passively if you have Whisperer of the Wilds on the board, you can still tap for mana that you won't even use and bolster someone.
January 16, 2015 12:55 p.m.
Honestly, Mardu is the best in my book. Oh, by the way, hi! Just dropping in on this discussion
January 16, 2015 4:10 p.m.
I understand your scepticism towards using statistics for decision making... but your logic of "it just comes down to luck" is greatly flawed.
Until you open your packs, you have no idea what your luck will be. - So, until that point, the only factors you can use for your decision are 1) Does one color/clan give a statistical advantage?, and 2) Does abilities and/or play-style of a particular color/clan lend itself to your preferred play-style.
True, I may pick Jeskai and not have any playable Jeskai cards in my 5 non-seeded packs... and end up playing .
However, statistically speaking, before knowing what will be in my packs, and without having a preference for a particular clan play-style, Jeskai should be my first choice as it gives me the greatest likelihood of having a larger set of playable cards to build my deck from.
As stated before... this has predicted the top place clan/color at my LGS for the last 3 pre-releases.
January 16, 2015 4:30 p.m.
Blind_Guardian says... #38
Partly forgot that the prerelease was this weekend. Does not matter though since I have no money and some lack of interest. Hoped to have a fun time at KoT prerelease but I walked away very dour(first time at the lgs where I moved to). People always tell you that the prerelease is not so competetive and friendly but I can't remember a single smile from the Khans prerelease from last time so unfortunately that statement isn't true. But I will still miss the event anyway. Was tempted to build something around abzan and bolster.
January 16, 2015 4:38 p.m.
pookypuppy6 says... #39
I'm just hoping no-one puts a Molting Snakeskin on a Seeker of the Way at me again. That was just depressing.
Also happy that the likelihood of me being killed again by Flying Crane Technique is lower this time...marginally.
January 16, 2015 6:43 p.m.
Just gonna point out that your statistics convey a very small difference between different color combinations. That, coupled with the fact that your sample size is only 3 events from a single location opens it up to many lurking variables. What if the people that are more skilled just pick whatever is listed as the "statistically best" color simply to maximize their chances. Skill must be factored in, and with such a small sample size it is impossible to say anything definitively. A good rule of thumb is a sample size of around 30 before you make claims about statistical significance. There are several other lurking variables, but the most obvious one is the fact that a majority of the cards players use is randomly determined as they are in booster packs.
January 16, 2015 7:01 p.m.
fadelightningmm says... #41
So now that a couple of prereleases have occurred does anyone know what some of the seeded pack promos are? My event isn't until Sunday and I'm hoping for a couple temur mythics ,
January 17, 2015 4:05 a.m.
Any of the mythics in FRF are possible in the seeded pack, as well as a couple of the rares. Mine in the mardu pack was Arcbond which was not so thrilling, but I saw people with Soulfire Grand Master from the seeded as well as all of the lord type things such as Brutal Hordechief.
January 17, 2015 4:52 a.m.
buildingadeck says... #43
I pulled Abzan, and I ended up playing Naya, with relative success: 2-2 and 9th out of 22.
January 17, 2015 7:15 a.m.
Hjaltrohir says... #44
Wait, can you get Monastery Mentor in the jeskai seeded pack?
January 17, 2015 7:48 a.m.
I played this very nice and aggressive R/W deck at the prerelease that had a lot of 2, 3 and 4 drops with 2 War flares, 1 Trumpet blast, and 1 Mod Rule as a finisher and I was surprised how hard it was for me to punish some of the greedy 3 and a splash color decks that had very little fixing. My only guess is that either the fixing was not as bad for everyone as it was in my pool or the seeded packs gave a lot of nice defensive creatures (and freaking Abzan guide).
I got a Brave the Sands as one of my seeded cards for Jeskai....Freaking Brave the Sands!!
January 17, 2015 9:08 a.m.
Schuesseled says... #46
Almost everyone who playedjeskai but me got a soulfire grandmaster. and ugins were flying everwhere except at me. sad face.
January 17, 2015 2:19 p.m.
So my seeded rare was garbage but holy crap I had consistent rares in my pool two of the red mythic (one foil) and some 4 drop bolster rare.
One dude got the GW legendary dragon as a promo and then got a regular in one of his packs. And my friend got a promo UW dragon in his. Meanwhile 3 people got ugins. It was crazy. Though after seeing what did best it has to be Abzan by far. Bolster is ridiculously good.
January 17, 2015 2:52 p.m.
buildingadeck says... #48
So in my Naya deck, I ran Flamerush Rider, and my opponent played Sandsteppe Mastodon to give Gurmag Swiftwing a bolster five. After swinging we were both at 13, and each had two creatures on the field, me with 2 2/2s. On my next turn, I played Mob Rule and swung for the win. It was non-tournament play after the event finished, but it was a helluva play. It made me laugh at bolster.
However, on to your comment about bolster being ridiculously good: it is only good in limited/booster-draft because the removal is all damage dealing removal, so ultimately, there is very little to do once something gets huge unless you drew Valorous Stance or a non-common removal spell. Thus, bolster can get out of hand really quickly in limited. In constructed play, Hero's Downfall is the quick and easy way of getting rid of a fatty. In the end, I don't see bolster being great in standard, though Dragonscale General might see fringe play, and Dromoka, the Eternal might find its way into some Abzan/Naya/Selesnya decks.
To be honest, I didn't draw very well at this prerelease, but one awesome card I did draw was Flamerush Rider. This card is incredible. Using it with War-Name Aspirant was fun as well as with Goblin Heelcutter, but imagine this dude with Wingmate Roc. Sickening. I think he's an underrated card that I just may keep for a random Boros deck.
January 17, 2015 3:07 p.m.
My deck was not that fantastic. I chose Abzan with Temur as plan B and got the temur pack but ended up playing jeskai anyway. I pulled Ugin, the Spirit Dragon out of one of my packs but went 2and 2 so missed prizes. We freed Ugin and when I got my Ugin fate pack I got the alt art ugin. I'm pretty much on cloud 9 right now
January 17, 2015 3:09 p.m.
I had a decent jeskai deck, but my opponents seemed to have amazing pools and typically had all the answers they could possibly need. Ended up 2-2. Got my Crux of Fate
though
BinaryCortex says... #2
I am excited for this pre-release. In my playtesting of sealed limited, it appears that Dragonscale General can help your creatures get out of hand quickly. :D
January 15, 2015 8:55 p.m.