Dec 4th 2023 Ban announcement
Modern forum
Posted on Nov. 29, 2023, 5:21 p.m. by Icbrgr
I just saw Pleasentkenobi's Youtube video in regards to the upcoming ban list announcement (particularly with Modern).
The TL;DR or watch of his video is predicting Fury and or Orcish Bowmasters to be banned due to "one toughness creatures being kept out of the format"... I personally just don't think the pitch elementals will ever go away.
Does anyone agree with this and or have any other thoughts/predictions?
As much as I want the elementals to go away, I tend to agree with you.
I honestly think the healthiest decision is to just make them all semi-limited, as they are healthy for the format if not used in an abusive way, but that is unprecedented in the format.
Orcish Bowmasters is still selling packs but nearing its end, so we may see it leave the format eventually, but I don’t see it occurring anytime soon.
If anything, I think they will unban more “safe cards” and ignore the problems. Once the overplayed cards rotate out of packs being sold I can see some action being taken against them, but not until then.
Honestly, I see Grief as the larger problem, since it actively stops players from being able to play Magic. A turn 1 Grief dismantles many decks far more than a 4 damage removal spell does.
Rakdos Scam is reaching the 20+% of the format threshold which is generally where they decide to take action, so I could also see something being banned, although it would surprise me a bit.
November 29, 2023 5:51 p.m.
wallisface says... #4
nbarry223 Wotc announced that this coming B&R will have a banning for Modern, so we know at least 1 card is being removed from the format.
November 29, 2023 5:53 p.m.
Also, I will make another prediction that if fury gets banned and grief does not, I see rakdos scam rotating to Dimir scam especially if the ring isn’t dealt with.
So I don’t see that ban as actually helping the format much, since that variant will still be oppressive but will fair far better against control, which is one of its few weaknesses right now.
November 29, 2023 5:56 p.m.
sergiodelrio says... #6
I say there is no way in hell they are banning their $ cards. Last time they didn't even acknowledge there is sth wrong with the format. We could have had the same convo last time around... likely the actual banning will be Fable of the Mirror-Breaker Flip and Up the Beanstalk lol.
In all seriousness tho I'm probably wrong and this time they might actually bite the bullet and make a serious ban, but come on... too little too late whatever they do now imho. It is going to take a lot to win me back at this point, WotC.
PS: Any unbannings are most welcome
November 30, 2023 7:53 a.m. Edited.
wallisface says... #7
I’d suggest for those who haven’t, to watch Wotcs video on the upcoming ban announcement… it feels like they are really trying to be more proactive with bans, more transparent in their decision making, and all-round trying to make a healthier format.
They admit in that vid that the previous ”no changes” B&R was a mistake, and go on to drop a lot of hints as to cards/decks they’re looking to nerf.
The big takeaway is that Fury is almost certainly on the chopping-block (or they’re trolling their community hard).
November 30, 2023 12:39 p.m.
sergiodelrio says... #8
wallisface I still feel like we've been here before and WotC claiming to learn from their mistakes gets less and less credible each time they say so. We'll be smarter on monday either way
November 30, 2023 3:10 p.m.
sergiodelrio says... #9
And as a little side rant: sometimes they ban cards like Simian Spirit Guide for absolutely no reason (has never EVER been in a deck that was considered problematic) out of nowhere, yet at other times they insist on keeping stupidly OP 1 card combos in the format and pretend it's fair. /rant
November 30, 2023 5:26 p.m.
wallisface says... #10
sergiodelrio SSG was banned for a very good reason - it was too powerful at enabling combo decks to pull off free-wins far too early, it was creating unfun lock conditions (like being able to play Blood Moon before the opponent’s even had a turn), and generally speeding up the format to a level they didn’t want. It was an absolutely valid ban, saw a ton of play pre-ban, and if it were still legal would undoubtably be ruining the current format in too many ways to count.
November 30, 2023 5:55 p.m.
I second that free mana like SSG is deserving of its ban.
I’d like to see some further unbans as well, but only the “safe” ones. Honestly a lot of the dominating cards previously wouldn’t be nearly as problematic in today’s modern, due to how efficient removal has become. A card like Splinter Twin would probably be safe to unban in today’s format, but I am not expecting to see it unbanned because of how dominant it once was (I don’t think its counterpart, Birthing Pod is safe to unban yet, since there’s not enough crazy powerful artifact hate).
Cards I would be happy to see unbanned are:
All the artifact lands
Deathrite Shaman
Ponder
Punishing Fire
Umezawa's Jitte
November 30, 2023 11:15 p.m.
wallisface says... #12
nbarry223 i’d be keen on all those unbans except for Umezawa's Jitte - X/1s are having a rough-enough time already
December 1, 2023 4:23 a.m.
I think that evoke just needs a rules change to prevent shenanigans. After that, since lots will likely be dropping in popularity in the upcoming months as far as sales go, they will likely ban orcish bowmasters and the one ring. That is, if they go the rules change route. The other method would be ban fury, ban the one ring. That would make the most sense. Likely, we will see fury banned, and some other cards that see play in higher tier decks that aren't the one ring or bowmasters, because those cards make WoTC money still.
December 3, 2023 5:06 a.m.
esnneu WotC doesn't rewrite ability rules casually. It took a card getting banned in Vintage--the format where almost anything goes--to change Companion, so I think an evoke rewrite is pretty much off the table. Also, out of the thirty-odd cards with evoke, the majority are safe to the point of being a little underpowered. Card bans are the primary way to control format power and diversity; rules rewrites are the nuclear option.
Out of curiosity, how would you recommend changing the rules for evoke?
December 3, 2023 12:19 p.m.
Remember one of Wizards 'hidden' rules for Bannings. Ban the older cards if at all possible. Newer cards still drives sales.
December 3, 2023 6:42 p.m.
sergiodelrio says... #16
legendofa they could just make it a special action that does not use the stack, and thus could not be responded to, maybe??? Dunno how reasonable that would be, tho
December 4, 2023 5:16 a.m.
sergiodelrio says... #17
They also changed how Cascade works at some point so this kind of mini-errata is not that unprecedented
December 4, 2023 5:46 a.m.
Essentially giving them split second as an errata boosts the power of the free spells when used as intended, I cannot get behind that.
I think they just need to be banned or limited to 2 or less copies and the incentive to cheat them out goes away. Making rules changes to a mechanic because of a small number of cards that use that mechanic just doesn’t seem like a logical choice.
December 4, 2023 9:10 a.m.
For example, Foundation Breaker becomes a sorcery speed Krosan Grip overnight. That doesn’t seem like the answer to the problem.
December 4, 2023 9:12 a.m.
sergiodelrio says... #20
nbarry223 my idea would be to have ONLY the SAC trigger not go on the stack somehow, when evoke is used, not the spell itself. ETB effects would also go on the stack. Not sure how a viable wording would look like.
December 4, 2023 9:15 a.m.
Biquette329 says... #21
legendofa I personally thing they will ban Fury and maybe Grief but to answer your question. They could fix evoke by having the creature exile instead of sacrifice when you evoke it.
December 4, 2023 9:41 a.m.
sergiodelrio says... #22
Biquette329 that would just kinda fix it... could still flicker/Ephemerate those creatures. I agree deckbuilding would be harder tho
December 4, 2023 9:46 a.m.
Then you eliminate the mechanic of strategically stacking triggers so you shuffle (or don’t) Endurance into the deck or not with its own effect as an example.
The simplest solution is to fix the root issue, not try to change the way something has worked for a while now in an attempt to keep the cards in the format (the way the deck works still changes so it still devalues the cards since less will see play anyway, while having adverse effects on completely unrelated cards).
The simplest solution is almost always correct, unless WOTC realizes they made a mistake with the mechanic (companion). Companion was brand new and inherently gave decks a free card essentially. The only other mechanic changed in recent memory was cascade, and that was only changed to handle interactions with double faced cards when they realized the mechanic limited their design space of all double faced cards.
December 4, 2023 9:46 a.m.
sergiodelrio says... #24
nbarry223 "Then you eliminate the mechanic of strategically stacking triggers so you shuffle (or don’t) Endurance into the deck or not with its own effect as an example." that seems like a minor sacrifice imho, but I see your point. There might not exist elegant errata for this issue whatsoever
December 4, 2023 9:50 a.m.
Wow.... "You did it...you crazy sonovabitch you did it..." - Ian Malcolm, Chaotician
December 4, 2023 12:14 p.m.
wallisface says... #27
I like this banning, but it does also raise concerns - Scam was a deck that had existed for a loooong time at a non-top-tier playrate, and was mainly pushed to stardom as it was one of the very few decks able to fight the One Ring decks. With Ring remaining unbanned, and less decks around to fight it, i’m a little worried it’s going to start being included everywhere.
December 4, 2023 1:48 p.m.
I predict rakdos scam to transition to dimir scam with cards like Subtlety and Drown in the Loch alongside counterspells transitioning to more of a tempo control deck, which could actually utilize The One Ring if it wanted to.
People will probably try orzhov first, since it is mentioned in the ban announcement specifically, but I see dimir as more powerful and better positioned in the metagame.
December 5, 2023 8:50 a.m.
wallisface says... #29
nbarry223 imo scamming a Subtlety feels terrible, and the BW variant was tried a bunch at the release of MH2 and just didn’t work. My feeling is people will scramble to try and make a viable version of scam but fall short, and the archetype will fall out of the meta. The closest we’ll get is the existing mono-black lists, and perhaps some midrange BR lists not doing scam things at all.
December 5, 2023 12:50 p.m.
Subtlety would not be used as a turn 1 clock, but as more of a control element. It would only be “scammed” as a 1 CMC 4/4 flier when used to still put a spell back into the deck.
Also, how the opponent chooses to put their spell gives free information about their hand and what they need in that moment of time, so it actually does some pretty powerful things in a control shell.
It actually requires timing and does more fair things than the rakdos version, so I’d be fine with it as an archetype. Turn 1 Grief scam just does too many good things to be passed up, so I can’t see it completely leaving the format. Hopefully I am wrong though, because I really don’t enjoy facing a turn 1 Grief scam because it doesn’t feel like you even get to play a game of Magic in a lot of cases.
December 6, 2023 12:28 a.m.
wallisface says... #31
So far the post-fury scam decks seem To consist of:
-
scam between 2.0 to 6.5% of the meta, still trying to do the same stuff (copium?) but still showing decent results.
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scam between 1.0 to 2.5% of the meta, looking very identical to the OG MH2 stoneforge-scam lists (but with Bowmasters). Based on the decks inability to get a higher meta share i’m assuming it’s either a nightmare to pilot, or has the sane issues the first iteration of this deck had.
-
mono- scam at 0.4% of the meta. I assume this would have a higher percentage playrate if mono-black coffers wasn’t just a better deck.
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scam at 0.3% of the meta. Looks like it’s just 3-4 people desperately trying to make the brew work.
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scam also at 0.3% of the meta. I have no idea why you’d want to scam an Endurance but again 3-4 people seem to be trying to get the list working. The list actually looks surprisingly viable.
December 19, 2023 7:13 p.m.
I was really thinking scam was gonna be the next big thing but I guess I was wrong.
December 19, 2023 9:26 p.m.
wallisface says... #33
Icbrgr while it currently looks like Red-Black is still the way to go at the moment, MH3 is just around the corner and could easily make any of the other B-X colour-pairs strongest.
For all the non-red scam versions, it can also be that the best version just hasn’t been found yet. Particularly for UB and BG which have considerably less people tuning them.
December 19, 2023 10:19 p.m.
Grief is the best turn 1 scam by far, in a tempo deck where play patterns matter. Fury was good because it had a pretty open window for targeting, and Solitude is kind of in the same boat. Fury's advantage there was that it could clear out a mid-sized target or a swarm of small targets, while Solitude removes one target, take it or leave it. Subtlety is fine, but highly reactive and has a narrow window of utility. Endurance has higher deck building requirements to make its (optional) ability relevant--a flashed-in 4/5 reach creature for and a couple cards in hand is solid in a vacuum, but it's not on the same level as the other options.
I'm wondering if Esper Scam is a viable option. Lean harder into control, the and can be simply flash-evoked and sac'ed if needed (they're still free removal and pseudo-counterspells), and fill in with some of the go-to control cards. The color balancing would be a little harder to work with, but not impossible.
First pass, off the top of my head with minimal consideration:
23 lands
Scam set: 4x Grief, 2x Solitude, 2x Subtlety, 4x Not Dead After All, 1x Undying Evil, 4x Ephemerate
Control: 3x Teferi, Time Raveler, 3x Counterspell, 4x Thoughtseize, 4 Leyline Binding, 4x The One Ring
Finishers: 4x Orcish Bowmasters
Basically, take the Dimir and Orzhov Scam lists and add some of https://www.mtggoldfish.com/archetype/wu-68d6e340-6601-4aab-9a70-4bdccc013e7e#paper.
December 20, 2023 1:23 a.m.
wallisface says... #35
legendofa my only concern with a 3-colour scam option is that successfully scamming turn-1 with 2 colours already involves jumping through a few hoops, as far as needing the right colour spell to evoke your Incarnation, as well as having a way to keep it on the field. By adding a 3rd colour that early-evoke tempo becomes a bit more clumsy.
Not saying it isn't viable - it might well be... but it just feels like its leaning less into a scam-plan, and that the midrange option might be better-off not trying to do any scam-tactics at all (and just leaning into the existing UW control lists we're already seeing that run those Incarnations).
December 20, 2023 1:52 a.m.
wallisface Very valid. I just put my list together here and ran a few hands, and it felt less reliable than the decks I pulled it from. When it worked, it was as fast and resilient as ever, but it just didn't come together often enough. So Esper Scam Control probably isn't the deck of the future--maybe a more dedicated builder could find the right lines and balances, and I'm just doing a very basic eyeball test without a live opponent, but Scam's glory days are probably over for now.
December 20, 2023 1:10 p.m.
and if scams popularity goes down... then that means the one ring decks popularity goes up... making burn a solid anti-meta/meta pick 8)
December 20, 2023 1:22 p.m.
wallisface says... #38
I really hope One Ring gets the boot the next B&R. Hopefully they’re done profiting off the card by March
December 20, 2023 1:46 p.m.
Real talk about The One Ring. I think its problem is that the legendary part actually benefits it due to multiples. I would think making it the first limited of the format fits in both flavor and to solve the problem.
I think that would make the "cost" of playing it more real, since you could no longer just destroy your first copy by playing another. Also, only being able to stall 1 turn temporarily isn't that horrible, the looping of multiple copies is what makes it an unfun card to play against.
We also don't have to worry about copy cards like Phyrexian Metamorph in conjunction with it, because there's no real reason or way to tutor up the original The One Ring to copy in an efficient manor (aside from Karn, the Great Creator which is very over-costed).
The One Ring is one of the few cards that control has gotten in quite a while. It being abused because of the legendary rule doesn't warrant a full banning in my opinion, it is a rather "fair" card otherwise. It only sees play in big mana decks (Tron + Amulet titan) and control decks. Most other decks want the game to be over by turn 4, or can't afford to play it for other reasons.
wallisface says... #2
My predictions are
Fury 100% banned
The One Ring 70% chance to be banned
Grief 40% chance to be banned
Up the Beanstalk 20% chance of ban
Orcish Bowmasters 20% chance of ban
I’m expecting Fury & One Ring to go.
November 29, 2023 5:50 p.m.