Do you think The One Ring’ll get banned?
Modern forum
Posted on July 3, 2023, 9:11 p.m. by wallisface
Question as the title states.
Are people expecting The One Ring to be banned in Modern, and if so, when do y’all think the banning will be announced?
From my own perspective, I think the card is currently showing all the hallmarks of something that needs banning - but the meta might shift to be able to better deal with it. In any case, the Wotc money-machine goes brrrr so i’m not expecting it to actually get banned until September at the earliest (and i’m fearful of what kind of dumster-pile format we’ve have to endure till then).
Possible answers, non-exhaustive and in no particular order:
Exiling: Shattering Blow, Cast into the Fire, Tear Asunder, Resculpt, Anguished Unmaking, Despark, Prismatic Ending, Rite of Oblivion
Countering and discard, the usual array
Draw prevention and punishment: Narset, Parter of Veils, Maralen of the Mornsong, Spirit of the Labyrinth, Orcish Bowmasters, Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Most of these are sideboard material at best, but some are general enough to hold up in a fringe deck, or specific enough to be in most sideboards. (What an insightful comment. Some of the possible answers are bad, some are okay, and some are pretty good. Watch out, analysts, here I come.)
So I would say that if The One Ring takes over, Esper Control might wander back into the upper ranks (while using The Ring itself), Burn and Hammer just kind of ignore it and work around the turn of protection, and Raggy-Reggie-Ragey decks might slip a little bit.
I haven't faced or used The One Ring in action yet, so this is me eyeballing and speculating, but I'm leaning toward not banworthy. The One Ring is two-thirds of a control deck in a single card, with the protection and draw, but control could use a hand. And it looks like Omnath is already locking it in. Which will get banned first, The One Ring or Omnath-4? It'll fill in a few more decks, maybe become the centerpiece of its own deck with Voltaic Key turbo-draw or Escape Protocol perma-protection, but it's not going to explode Modern unless something happens in Caves of Ixalan or whatever.
And if I'm wrong, it's another card for my banlist-only deck, so there.
July 4, 2023 2:46 a.m.
Eh, skip that Escape Protocol line. I forgot the "if you cast it" clause.
July 4, 2023 2:50 a.m.
wallisface says... #5
legendofa the problem is that most of those answers arent even remotely useful.
If you exile the artifact they still get to tap & draw a card in response, so the opponent ends up net-neutral, while youre down a card. Added to this, most of these cards are absolutely useless in the event the opponent doesnt draw/play the Ring.
The best exile effect is Leyline Binding, and that still results in you being down a card.
Realistically the best answers are probably things like Pithing Needle, Collector Ouphe, and Stony Silence - but again all of these baring Pithing Needle are going to feel terrible to draw if your opponent hasnt drawn their Ring.
July 4, 2023 3:59 a.m.
plakjekaas says... #6
KAAAAAARN!!!
Also, there's ways around the protection. Anything that says "Damage can't be prevented" will make it so that you can attack through the protection turn, like sending Bonecrusher Giant on an adventure. You can hit a creature, or even yourself with it, and combat will work as usual, since the damage can no longer be prevented by the protection that turn.
July 4, 2023 5:54 a.m.
Theres just not enough meaningful answers yet, which hit a broad enough number of cards. Also, if you are siding to sub-optimally answer a card engine, you arent answering your opponents actual strategy.
Right now, only red can combat the ring effectively by ignoring it and playing instant speed your next turn, or through the use of its multitude of damage cant be prevented cards.
To a lesser extent, black also has Orcish Bowmasters which deals with it in a very black way, but that is some very narrow tech.
Beyond that, we have shuffle effects (only in green to my knowledge), exile effects, and turn off artifact effects to deal with it after the fact, or discard/counterspells to deal with it prior. From all those options, the counterspell strategy is the only one profiting from the interaction by going up in mana on the trade.
The real problem is it must be answered the turn it is played or you are almost doing your opponent a favor by removing it. This makes the Pithing Needle turn it off strategy the only realistic one.
Are there other decks that play around the protection that Im just not thinking of?
A card thats good against everything but burn and counterspells seems a little too powerful, so hopefully some better answers are printed.
July 4, 2023 8:13 a.m.
wallisface Ugh. I was more than half asleep when I wrote that.
July 4, 2023 12:19 p.m.
plakjekaas says... #9
Turn Off Artifact-effects deal with it preemptively too, Stony Silence comes down earlier than the Ring.
Discard effects trade up on mana too, your 1mana Thoughtseize traded for the 4mana One Ring.
I'm scrolling through an image of the Modern Meta, and in the top 10 decks, there's like only 2 who actually play the thing. It's a 4 mana play in Modern that does nothing but draw you cards and lose you life. Jace, the Mind Sculptor was unbanned and barely made an impact with his return, I'm not sure why we'd have to be so scared of this when it probably does less. The only actual problem is that Modern is littered with free pitch-cards to use when you draw a lot of cards. The biggest threat the LotR set is posing is still MH2 xD
Yawgmoth, Thran Physician can proliferate the Burden Counters to push for more lifedrain. Not very reliable as a tactic, but possibly useful to consider as option and hilarious if it actually contributes in a significant way :P
July 5, 2023 6:33 a.m.
Of the turn off effects that are colorless, you have Karn, pithing needle and sorcerous spyglass. Two of them trade for the card essentially, while the other is also 4 mana.
Discard does not trade up in mana, since your opponent is not spending mana, you are actually trading down in mana. Also, you are targeting a draw engine instead of their threat. If a resource is that scary that you need to choose it over a threat, there might be something wrong.
I’m not saying the card is too overpowered, there’s just not enough answers in every color. I think it will be fine with more answers printed.
July 5, 2023 7:52 a.m.
wallisface says... #11
Yeah i think the current strikes against the Ring are:
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Answers to it are either not particularly clean (cost too much mana, put you behind a card versus your opponent etc), and/or suboptimal in every case where the Ring is not present.
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The best answers to it are typically found in decks that would also be running this card themselves.
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Every deck that can play the Ring, has been. Decks that can’t are either falling behind in the meta, or adjusting to include it themselves. It is very quickly becoming format-defining.
Reasons it might not be as bad as we think:
- a lot of top-tier decks currently can’t justify fitting this into their mainboard - most often because it messes with their combo/tempo. If these decks can continue to remain relevant, that’s a good sign.
Personally, i’m expecting 6 of the top-8 pro tour decks to be running this card.
July 5, 2023 4:19 p.m.
Basically, the decks that aren't running it either can't, or want to win before they'd play it (having too low of a land count to get to 4 mana consistently). Even some that want to win prior to playing it still run it, for example Breach decks are running the card oddly enough.
The decks not running it play a tempo/aggro playstyle, or the inclusion of a 4 mana artifact breaks their strategy (creativity).
Almost every other deck is running the card. It isn't quite as easy to include as something like Gitaxian Probe or Mental Misstep where there's no wall to inclusion, but it is pretty close since it is a colorless card that is pretty easy to slot into almost any deck.
July 5, 2023 6:19 p.m.
wallisface says... #13
Having played against The One Ring at my LGS tonight i’m now pretty certain this card is too strong for modern, and will be banned by September at the latest.
Decks Midrange-or-slower have no real way to favourably navigate a One Ring matchup, and are pretty-much forced into auto-losing if they’re not running the card themselves. That’s already a big red flag - as it entails that all Midrange & Control decks will generally/usually require this card to keep up.
Alongside Omnath, Locus of Creation builds the card feels even more obnoxious, and sets it up pretty well to even outlast aggro decks.
My current stance is there’s no way I can see this thing staying in the meta for long.
July 6, 2023 7 a.m.
wallisface says... #14
From the latest MTGO modern league results of decks going 5-0, 29/100 include The One Ring.
https://www.mtgo.com/en/mtgo/decklist/modern-league-2023-07-04
This is pretty indicative of scary times ahead, particularly as some people won't be wanting to invest $$$ in the card.
July 7, 2023 2:47 a.m.
I have a very important announcement to make:
Sphinx's Tutelage + The One Ring
That is all. Thank you.
July 11, 2023 3:21 p.m.
wallisface says... #16
sylvannos that’s not a particularly strong interaction - there’s a LOT better you can do just through value-gains from the Ring. I don’t see the meta ever picking up that combo.
July 11, 2023 4:12 p.m.
@wallisface: I'm just memeing. I thought it was a hilarious interaction. If The One Ring doesn't get banned in Modern, I'm seriously considering building a deck around it with Sphinx's Tutelage and Teferi's Tutelage.
July 11, 2023 5:10 p.m.
wallisface says... #18
sylvannos at this point in time i’d be seriously surprised (and disappointed) if it didn’t get banned - it invalidates all non-Ring midrange-or-slower decks, and even multiple aggro/combo decks have been including the Ring just for more sustain and/or as a “free win” card on its own. It has, and will continue to, consume the format.
July 11, 2023 5:21 p.m.
I think it will be banned, but not an emergency banning anytime soon.
Maybe once the LOTR stock is completely sold out they will consider banning it.
Until then, they are “waiting for the meta to adjust” and will not even consider banning the iconic card of their newest set.
Hopefully they prove me wrong, but I doubt it.
July 11, 2023 5:47 p.m.
wallisface says... #20
Looking on MtgGoldfish, the Ring is currently the 5th most played card, in 31% of decks (its also the 3rd most played mainboard card).
I’m really really hoping the card gets a ban in August, because its miserable to play against, but at the moment the top decks of the format are all builds setup to fight the ring instead if running it.
nbarry223 says... #2
I think the pro tour will give a better understanding of if everyone is over-reacting, or if it is actually meta-defining.
It is quite powerful for sure, but it may be something that pushes the format from an aggro/tempo oriented format to more of a control/combo oriented one, since it is a great stabilizer and way to maintain card advantage. I personally think it has the potential to be banned, but probably not an emergency banning, since it doesn't straight up win games on its own.
It grants the resources to win games, but control has been underpowered in modern for a while now, so it could be just the thing we needed to shift the balance of power. I think if they print enough answers to it in the very near future, a banning won't be completely necessary, but if indestructible artifacts go unchecked for too long, then yes I think it will be banned.
I don't see it getting banned until LOTR set is sold out, which won't be for a bit.
July 3, 2023 9:23 p.m.