So, is it time for Twin to go? (Finally)
Modern forum
Posted on July 31, 2015, 10:41 a.m. by vishnarg
Before I get into this, let's back track 7 months. Remember how terrible and menacing Birthing Pod was? The most unbeatable combo and aggro deck to ever come into modern? Let's look back on why it was banned, according to the banning announcement by Wizards back in late January:
"Over the past year, Birthing Pod decks have won significantly more Grand Prix than any other Modern decks and compose the largest percentage of the field. Each year, new powerful options are printed, most recently Siege Rhino. Over time, this creates a growing gap between the strength of the Pod deck and other creature decks. Pod won five of the twelve Grand Prix over the past year, including winning the last two. The high percentage of the field playing Pod suppresses decks, especially other creature decks, that have an unfavorable matchup. In the interest of supporting a diverse format, Birthing Pod is banned."
Okay, so we can all agree Pod was just too good and a severe blight on the health of the modern format because of its rampant abundance in both top level events and local FNMs. Remember the deck that could compete best with Pod back when we still had Dig and Cruise? That's right, it was Splinter Twin, because the combo could race a Pod deck that had little answers to the combo outside of Spellskite and an Abrupt Decay. Today, looking at MTGtop8.com, Splinter Twin has risen to take up 13% of the meta. This is about where Pod was at when it was banned. This is also, like Pod, a deck that gets better and better with time; just over the past year, it got access to Tasigur and Kolaghans Command, making Grixis Twin the new best modern deck. I've personally never been a fan of the Twin decks, but the deck is becoming so flexible and consistent that it's almost impossible to beat consistently. Sure, Wizards gave us Rending Volley, but how much better was this than Combust? Is Volley really the answer we needed to Twin? Just look at Origins; this time we get Mizzium Meddler, another note from Wizards saying "We're not banning Twin yet, so here's another crappy answer to Moderns strongest combo deck".
Other issues I have with Twin is that it's very easy to incorporate into a deck. What disadvantages are there in including the combo in an already strong Grixis control deck? None at all. Plus, if Twin were banned, if people still wanted to play the deck, they'd still have Kiki-Jiki, which would be a slower but more fair way to use the combo.
Bottom line: Twin decks are an easy, one turn infinite combo that has always been abusive to all other archetypes in modern. When compared with the success Pod had, Twin should also be banned using the same logic. Thoughts?
slovakattack says... #3
I don't see it, honestly, and I disagree with the statement "his is also, like Pod, a deck that gets better and better with time." Any upgrades it received are independent of it's win-condition engine, and can be applied to other decks. It's not unique in being able to use Tasigur effectively.
I just don't think it's an accurate comparison. Twin is much easier to disrupt than Pod was, and I doubt we'll be seeing it banned any time soon.
July 31, 2015 10:50 a.m.
I suppose I'm a bit early. I get the funny feeling it will dominate over the next few months, however. Perhaps then Wizards will look into banning it next January. We'll have to see how it plays out and performs in major tournaments.
July 31, 2015 10:59 a.m.
buildingadeck says... #5
Pod was a huge portion of the meta game when it was banned. Even with Treasure Cruise in the format, Delver lists could not beat it. Twin, is roughly 8-9% of the meta, which is about the same as the other major decks right now. In my eye, the modern format is pretty healthy and diverse right now, perhaps with a little power slanted toward blue decks (Delver, Twin, Grixis Control, etc). Point being, Twin is not at all the same sort of evil that was Birthing Pod.
July 31, 2015 11:02 a.m.
http://cardboard-crack.com/post/121651600726/colors-of-magic
sorry ... too easy
July 31, 2015 11:11 a.m.
chessmaster156 says... #7
Twin has been doing terrible at my local modern events. Like near last place terrible. How is it broken? On a side note, Temur twin really needs to run Commune With The Gods.
July 31, 2015 11:33 a.m.
chessmaster156 says... #8
What really needs to go is Spell Snare, it is a broken card that ruins everything, much like Mental Misstep.
July 31, 2015 11:36 a.m.
Twin is actually up to 13%, and Birthing Pod was not evil, it was a creature based deck that could be tackled with good removal. Not evil, though. I mean there's a reason they call the new Grixis Twin "Evil Twin" of course.
July 31, 2015 11:44 a.m.
Oh. For some reason I thought it was a reference to Evil Twin. Didn't know why though.
July 31, 2015 11:50 a.m.
buildingadeck says... #11
It's Evil Twin because it runs black... lol
My apologies for having the wrong numbers, but I really haven't seen Twin dominating the format at a GP, SCG Open, PT level. After rechecking MTGGoldfish, it has Twin at 11.75%, Affinity at 7.5%, and Jund at 6.5% as the top 3. While it does, have a considerably larger number than the next highest deck, it has not seen success to make that a threat. I do not see a need for a ban.
July 31, 2015 11:56 a.m.
buildingadeck says... #12
Also, vishnarg. If people could so easily defeat Pod with good removal, why did it win the majority of the GPs last year? Wouldn't people be able to beat it with Path to Exile?
July 31, 2015 11:59 a.m.
(I know it's because it's Grixis, lol). And like I said maybe I analyzed the meta wrong, but if the situation worsens they may have to take action. Time will tell.
July 31, 2015 noon
Pod won because it was a good deck, but not unbeatable. There are many decks you could play to specifically beat Pod, which is what happened. All I'm saying is, if they're banning Pod because of its dominance, they should keep an eye on Twin over the next few months.
July 31, 2015 12:02 p.m.
buildingadeck says... #15
The very fact that people played decks specifically to beat Pod shows you how dominant it was. If Twin gets that way, we'll see if it gets banned, but right now, it doesn't seem that way.
July 31, 2015 12:04 p.m.
I don't see Twin pushing any decks out of the format, the format is plenty diverse.
BGx Midrange exists keeping Twin in check,
Don't lump Grixis Twin and UR Twin together, they may look similar but still play very differently is some aspects. Each has about ~6% of the metagame. BUR Twin may be a new archetype due to new cards but it is far from the best deck in the format.
July 31, 2015 12:09 p.m.
CrovaxTheCursed says... #17
I don't think Twin will get hit with the ban hammer. The reason it's so good is because it's a 2-card combo, and thus can be put into just about any shell with UR. There a so many ways to make a Twin deck, and they are becoming more and more popular, especially since the banning of Pod. Grixis, Tarmo, American, regular UR, etc. It's a very diverse deck since it can just control out and win in an instant. Every deck in the format has an answer to it somewhere, which cannot be said for Pod. Pod was too hard to disrupt and was still able to win if their Pod got destroyed by whatever. Twin is a little trickier since you basically have to combo out, or include some alternate win cons. There were a lot of decks that would match up horribly with Pod, but every deck has a sideboard answer to the Twin combo.
Now, all that being said, it does seem to be the trend that Wizards will ban the card that makes the best deck in the format so good. Twin is really high on that list, but I still feel Affinity is the best deck in the format. Still, it's not winning ungodly amounts of tournaments since every deck has answers to Affinity, just like Twin. So in my opinion, neither Twin nor Affinity should get hit with a ban quite yet. Until something really pushes either one of those decks over the edge, they are perfectly poised in the format to play extremely well, but not be too overpowered. I mean, I'm not sure how you could make Affinity any stronger, but there's not really any one card that makes it so good. It's a collective effort of all the cards that are mostly just OK on their own. Except maybe Cranial Plating. If anything got hit with a ban, it should probably be that lol. Hell, they just banned Trasure Cruise, and that's a common. They probably knew they were going to have to ban Cruise and Dig when they were developing them lol.
July 31, 2015 12:24 p.m.
GlistenerAgent says... #18
As I read, I'll type things that that are relevant.
Twin had a bad Pod matchup. Scapeshift was the deck that kept it in check.
Twin won't just get better indefinitely, as Pod would have because of new and better creatures. There are only 3 possible splash colors, and adding new cards won't really make the deck revolutionarily better without also being good for other decks.
Twin isn't pushing other decks out of the metagame. Midrange decks are still viable, aggro decks are still viable, other combo decks are still viable. The format is rather healthy at the moment.
Here's the most important thing: We can beat Twin. There are cards and strategies that crush Twin. Grixis Control has a very hard time losing. Jund has at least an even matchup, and many combo decks have very powerful anti-Twin cards.
This wasn't really the case for Pod. Even Anger of the Gods didn't help when they were playing 3-4 Siege Rhinos.
Twin is certainly the best deck in the format. In fact, it's been that way for so long that 60-65 of the cards are essentially locked. However, it is by no means (currently) too dominant.
July 31, 2015 12:37 p.m.
Wizard_of_the_Broke says... #19
I've been hoping that Twin would be banned for a while, but it's probably not happening. I actually think Twin with access to Blood Moon might be somewhat overpowered for the format, but that hasn't really been demonstrated by real life tournament domination. Luckily, I think Twin will forever be held (at least partially) in check by the simple fact that it's a boring combo/wincon/deck.
July 31, 2015 1:04 p.m.
GlistenerAgent says... #20
Just kill the Blood Moon. I play a deck that is only less than Tron and Bloom in terms of how hard it folds to Blood Moon, and it's not a problem for me. You have to try harder.
July 31, 2015 1:06 p.m.
Wizard_of_the_Broke says... #21
I don't presently play anything that gets totally hosed by Blood Moon. I occasionally borrow the card from a buddy of mine and think it's great, and I'd like to see some new cards that balance it out rather than see it banned. I was just claiming that it makes UR Twin into a somewhat oppressive deck (not on the level of Pod, but oppressive enough to push a few decks out if it gets really popular). I don't think it's out of control now at all, but I could see Twin putting together a streak of tournament wins and it getting a bit out of hand, at least in terms of making for a lot of boring games.
July 31, 2015 1:39 p.m.
GlistenerAgent says... #22
What I was saying is that it's not oppressive unless you let it be.
July 31, 2015 1:41 p.m. Edited.
GlistenerAgent says... #24
Scapeshift. Or Infect. Blood Moon hurts there too.
July 31, 2015 1:50 p.m.
Wizard_of_the_Broke says... #25
Nobody is saying there aren't answers to Blood Moon. But having played it (outside of Twin), it's pretty much single-handedly won me games. It makes it a lot harder to cast Abrupt Decay or Destructive Revelry, and not everybody can access Nature's Claim or similar. There just isn't a ton of enchantment removal floating around presently. Pretty much everyone agrees it's a problem card that you have to have a plan for in a lot of decks. That's not quite oppressive at that stage, but it has some potential to be. If a deck running Moon were popular enough, Bloom Titan would probably disappear, U Tron would be pretty screwed, etc.. I'm not saying that would be the end of the world, but a single card having that kind of impact might be considered bad for the format.
July 31, 2015 2:08 p.m.
CanadianShinobi says... #26
By the logic presented here we should simply ban any top performing deck. Comparing Pod to Twin is apples to oranges, for the reasons presented by others. Notably, Twin is much easier to answer than Pod ever was. Banning cards continually for performing well is not a viable solution.
July 31, 2015 2:09 p.m.
puhalakaust says... #27
I personally play a Jeskai Twin deck and honestly, any good midrange (Jund, Junk, etc.) is a rough matchup for me. If my draws aren't perfect, I have to wait a long time to go off and that usually means taking quite a beating at first. I play Twin because it is powerful, but do I win constantly?? Not even close. I didn't play modern before Pod was banned so I wont attempt any comparison there but I do not think Twin is in need of a ban. Thus far, every player I've gone up against who has a competitive deck can answer my twin combo at least 50% (or more) of the time.
July 31, 2015 3:45 p.m.
CharlesMandore says... #28
I didn't read the later half of comments, but perhaps this is just one fella who has it personal for Twin? A simple difference of opinions this might be, it seems to me.
July 31, 2015 3:55 p.m.
GlistenerAgent says... #29
puhalakaust This could be a combination of bad deck building and bad play, but I have no idea.
July 31, 2015 4:04 p.m.
buildingadeck says... #30
Lol. Saying that one card can screw a deck is ridiculous. GlistenerAgent just watched me win via Mindslaver lock with my U-Tron deck by a Repeal of Stony Silence. Your deck has to be able to combat adversity. Period. There is nothing else to be said.
Twin is a major deck in the format. Therefore, you should have answers for it in your sideboard if you play competitively. If you don't draw them or they get countered, that's part of the game. No deck auto-folds to a card. I'm with Agent on this: make your deck have answers to the meta.
July 31, 2015 4:06 p.m.
puhalakaust says... #31
GlistenerAgent It's mostly that I play against a 1200$ Jund deck, and an 800$ Junk. My twin deck is relatively new (I've only spent about 250$) and I build decks slowly when they cost a lot. The point I'm making is that Twin by itself isn't, in my opinion, in need of banning. It's quite versatile as far as the differences in twin shells and very disruptable by almost every deck in the format.
July 31, 2015 4:17 p.m.
gnarlicide says... #32
As a Jund player. I do not think Twin need to be banned, at all. It keeps my worst matchup (Tron) in check. So as long as Twin is a major player in the meta, then I consider them free wins.
People say that Jund has a 50/50 matchup against Twin, but fuck that. Right now I have played modern in three cities (more than 50 miles apart) and I can say with complete confidence that game 1 is more like 60/40 in Junds favor. Post board, it could get better, provided that you keep a discard heavy hand and land goyfs. Beating Twin is about pressure and keeping BG mana open. Twin players respect Abrupt Decay. I am more scared of Merfolk than anything lately, lol.
July 31, 2015 4:41 p.m.
GlistenerAgent says... #33
Postboard is favorable for Twin. By a sizeable margin.
If you only have $250 in your Twin deck, it isn't at top efficiency.
July 31, 2015 4:56 p.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #34
Yeah, I've played Twin pretty extensively now (past couple months) and it's far from unbeatable. Like, if you have ANY removal spells in your deck, you've got a good fighting chance. xD
Now, I know that not every deck can play Abrupt Decay, but Path to Exile and Dismember and Nature's Claim, Thoughtseize effects, Combust, etc., are all available. The enchantment hate cards even pull double duty against B-moon too.
Twin also does almost nothing until T3 most of the time -- other than Bolt a mana dork, Serum Visions, and maybe a Remand if they've got a decent hand. In addition, the removal spells that UR has access to are very narrow, which almost forces you to splash black if you expect to see X/4's or higher.
Finally, Twin's BGx matchup is pretty horrendous. I mean, most Twin lists sideboard into an entirely different deck to have a chance in G2 and 3. If you win G1, things get a lot easier, but otherwise you've got to get really lucky. Or splash another color, and make your Blood Moons worse for you.
July 31, 2015 5:07 p.m.
gnarlicide says... #35
Abrupt Decay and Rending Volley are good friends of mine. Twin gets shit on by me. Period.
July 31, 2015 5:16 p.m.
gnarlicide says... #36
Post board, I am not even worried, they board out their combo and do what? Try to go late game with control? Okay, fine. If my biggest fear is bolt, snap bolt, then I am in a really good position.
July 31, 2015 5:18 p.m.
I guess it's all a matter of perspective. I see Twin as a degenerate, cheap, and hard to answer combo deck. However, I am primarily a RG Tron player, so that would make sense. I've also seen it do immensely well everywhere at my local meta, which is why everyone started cracking out Jund to beat Twin, which is where I pick up my wins vs. Jund. I just had no idea that Twin was such an easy matchup for Jund/Junk.
July 31, 2015 5:40 p.m.
GlistenerAgent says... #38
It appears that you guys don't get how good the sideboard plan is.
July 31, 2015 6:31 p.m.
gnarlicide says... #39
what side board plan? Keranos? thats about all they have...
July 31, 2015 7:23 p.m.
gnarlicide says... #40
Modern as a format is going the route of Legacy. In the sense that players are now being rewarded with wins based off of experience with their respective decks. I have lost to decks like Bogles, which is arguably a VERY easy match up for me, but I can say that the pilot has been playing the deck at that particular LGS for a few years and was prepared for what I was doing. The same goes for any match up. Tron used to be an absolute blowout against me. To the point that I thought it was unwinnable. But now I can play it out and at least have a decent chance. I still lose 60 percent of the time, but I have a chance.
July 31, 2015 7:27 p.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #42
@gnarlicide Agreed. I have the same sort of dynamic with Twin right now... I used to lose almost every game against Jund/Junk, and after a lot of Twiddleing around (Splinter Twin pun very much intended!) with sb strategies and playstyle in those games, I'm now leaning more towards a 40 (me) - 60 (them) split than totally unwinnable.
This is almost certainly due to my experience level with the deck, but still true.
July 31, 2015 8:02 p.m.
GlistenerAgent says... #43
A Twin player I trust (multiple Premier IQ top 8s, an Open top 16) claims a positive matchup. I'm inclined to trust him and my own testing. Twin can hold its own. Keranos is gas.
July 31, 2015 10:08 p.m.
JexInfinite says... #44
Twin's high player percentage is not representative of the number of players who can actually play the deck properly. Even at SCG events, I've watched matches where the Twin players were just not at top game because they didn't understand how the deck worked. A heap of people are breaking into modern with Twin, and that's why the numbers are so high.
July 31, 2015 10:29 p.m.
notamardybum says... #45
Keranos is gas. Gb/x decks can't do shit. But it takes forever lol
August 1, 2015 9:31 a.m.
gnarlicide says... #46
notamardybum, normally i agree with you 100% on things, but my match record against twin agrees with you about 30% of the time.
August 1, 2015 9:48 a.m.
notamardybum says... #47
gnarlicide this is just from my experience with keranos facing rock decks. Keranos takes FOREVER so the rock deck has to kill fast enough before keranos starts wiping your board from creatures and lilianas.
Im Not saying keranos is a 100% win once it hits the board, Because it's not. But it sure can make the game much more difficult for gb/x.
That being said I've dropped playing grixis all together and picked up elves, yay elves!
August 1, 2015 10:05 a.m.
gnarlicide says... #48
I think where a deck like Jund would have the edge over Keranos, (I just got back from a modern Super IQ yesterday, so I will refer to the twin Matchup) would be from activating man lands. During my most recent Matchup, I was using Goyf and Scooze as counter/removal rods to bait out counters and bolts. I would then activate a mainland of my choice and go to the dome. (this really helped in the early stages of Raging Ravine)
Yes, the guy would use Keranos to zap a Bob or a scooze or a hunt master. But all that did was kept him from shooting me with it.
August 2, 2015 8:31 a.m.
TheAnnihilator says... #49
In every game I've played vs BGx, landing a Keranos is definitely an increase in potential to win. Like said above, it isn't 100%, but it is always MILES better having him than not.
August 2, 2015 12:19 p.m.
If the Splinter Twin match gets to be bad enough, Jund players will just begin playing a singleton Godless Shrine so they can sideboard in Dromoka's Command to beat Keranos, God of Storms.
Blood Moon is the real culprit in that match, since you have to have Abrupt Decay on the spot, hit it with Inquisition of Kozilek, or you just lose.
My main point is Splinter Twin just isn't ban worthy. It's a fair deck that usually wins via tempo. Banning any component of it would likely result in people just playing U/R/x Tempo decks, like Delver, without any real changes to the meta.
I think at this point in Modern, WotC should really start to consider unbanning cards. They really should consider Bloodbraid Elf, Ancestral Vision, artifact lands, Chrome Mox, and Sword of the Meek. Of course, they might have to move some other cards around (such as banning Cranial Plating or Disciple of the Vault so we get 5 new lands). I think anymore bans at this point without anything coming off the list would just decrease format diversity.
The only other solutions I can think of for diversifying the meta are a bit extreme. Examples would include banning Lightning Bolt, or reprinting Swords to Plowshares and Force of Will.
JWiley129 says... #2
I think you're a few weeks late with this, since the B&R announcement was two weeks ago. However on topic, I'm not sure if any piece of the Twin decks would get hit by a ban. I would need to go back, but if I recall Twin has won fewer major tournaments than other archetypes since the Pod bannings.
I would be quite happy should Twin get banned, but I won't be surprised if it never happens.
July 31, 2015 10:45 a.m.