Future Bans
Spoilers, Rumors, and Speculation forum
Posted on Feb. 27, 2014, 5:07 p.m. by forestlore44
Out of curiosity, I was wanting to know which cards are most likely to banned some time in the near future. Im not really interested in spending a lot of money building another deck that becomes obsolete from an unexpected ban. Any thoughts on what will be banned next?
It seems to me, that when there is a rules change, the banlist is OFFICIALLY updated. Even if there is no changes, just 'nothing changed' is printed. It also appears the only time real changes are made are in the jan/feb rules update for the winter set, like this past year. I won't say they don't change it outside of this, I think they have, but never do they ban/unban on update then do it again on another unless something is really, really stupid and nothing is that broken/stupikd. so don't expect bans anytime soon.
February 27, 2014 5:44 p.m.
the3rdH0kage says... #4
Ban lists are generally updated with new sets. So the next expansion (barring an emergency banning) will be when it gets updated again.
February 27, 2014 6:14 p.m.
forestlore44 says... #5
I see, well what I meant to say is: What cards currently in Modern are most likely be banned foreseeably 1-2 years down the the road, based on educated guess? My bad, should of rephrased my post better than I did.
February 27, 2014 7:09 p.m.
SharuumNyan says... #6
It's hard to tell, because the reprinted fetch lands are going to open up a bunch of new deck archetypes. Until we start seeing new decks, we won't know what is overpowered enough to get banned.
February 27, 2014 7:13 p.m.
Epochalyptik says... #7
Guessing bans more than half a year in advance is, in my opinion, pointless. If something's a problem, it will be addressed within half a year or less. Once you get further than that, you lose the ability to accurately guess what the meta will be.
February 27, 2014 7:57 p.m.
If I had to guess, the two cards they would ban are Amulet of Vigor and Lightning Bolt .
Amulet of Vigor allows for turn one kills, which goes against the philosophy of Modern being a turn four format.
Lightning Bolt is what's really pushing Aggro decks out of Modern, since it kills every relevant creature that costs two or less, except for Tarmogoyf . It can then double as a win condition by targeting players. Out of a possible 32 Lightning Bolt that could appear in Top 8 at Pro Tour: BNG, there were 23 copies. Six of the Top 8 had Lightning Bolt , and five of those ran a full playset. This really isn't a good sign of a healthy format since this has been going on for months.
As for Legacy, blue is really starting to get out of control. We've seen every major event for the past year or so be 28 copies of Brainstorm and 28 copies of Force of Will in the Top 8 ever since True-Name Nemesis was printed. Blue-based midrange has completely taken over the format. I'm not really sure where the culprit lies, since it seems to be a combination of factors.
February 27, 2014 8:12 p.m.
SharuumNyan says... #9
Can you explain the turn one kill with Amulet of Vigor ? I get how to turn two kill, and it's very unikely to happen because it requires a bunch of cards.
February 27, 2014 8:23 p.m.
I really don't think that Amulet of Vigor warrants ban. It simply isn't that good. It can do turn 2 shenanigans, but it certainly isn't consistent enough to have much effect on the meta. It is a fringe card and sees no consistent top play.
I don't think Lightning Bolt is ban worthy either. It is good, sure, but not DRS or Jace, the Mind Sculptor good. It doesn't make aggro unviable, with snapcasters you can use 8 bolts, which isn't more than an aggro deck runs.
Predicting bans more than 1-2 months in the future is so hard because the meta is always changing to some degree. Especially now, right after a fairly large ban and unban.
The meta is really healthy right now too. Lots of archetypes being played at the PT. (Assuming we are talking about modern)
February 27, 2014 9:10 p.m.
CanadianShinobi says... #11
sylvannos banning Lightning Bolt would also cripple aggro. RDW is still played in Modern. And it also runs a playset of lightningbolt.
February 27, 2014 10:34 p.m.
@SharuumNyan: The turn one kill is as follows:
- Remove Simian Spirit Guide from your hand to play Amulet of Vigor .
- Play Simic Growth Chamber . Amulet of Vigor untaps it. Tap it for two mana, then bounce it back to your hand as part of its ETB.
- Cast Summer Bloom , dropping into play your Simic Growth Chamber and two more bounce lands (like Boros Garrison ). Tap all three for six mana, then bounce each one back to your hand.
- Using your six mana, cast Hive Mind .
- Play a Summoner's Pact (or any other pact with a legal target). Your opponent gets a copy as well, but then you pass the turn. Since they have no lands or mana sources on their turn one/two upkeep, they die when they can't pay for the pact.
Turn one, two, and three kills happened several times throughout the pro tour.
As far as Lightning Bolt goes, think about it. It has a lot of reach, almost as much as Deathrite Shaman since it doesn't have summoning sickness or require things in the graveyard. It's super-cost efficient removal and has similar power level to Dark Ritual . Aggro decks, like Zoo, still have access to removal spells like Lightning Helix , Dismember , and Path to Exile , but don't have the unconditional downside of losing all their two-drops to an end-of-turn-Lightning Bolt -your-guy-before-he-can-do-anything. It also sets up a lot of two for ones with Snapcaster Mage .
The format is really broken and in favor of U/R/x decks because they can rely on Lightning Bolt
. I think the DCI incorrectly identified Deathrite Shaman
as the culprit for there being a lack of Aggro decks making top 8 at major events, when they real problem is with Lightning Bolt
. Not being able to keep a creature on the board before turn three is really problematic when the opponent can play a card that has no limitations.
February 28, 2014 1:27 a.m.
SharuumNyan says... #13
Okay, but for that turn one kill you'd have to be on the draw, otherwise you won't have those 8 cards in your hand. It's a neat combo, but it's not going to happen very often.
It would be handy to sideboard Mental Misstep to answer something like this though.
February 28, 2014 1:54 a.m.
@SharuumNyan: You don't even need eight cards, I posted wrong (my bad). Summer Bloom allows you to play up to three additional lands for the turn, not put three lands from your hand into play.
So it's:
Simian Spirit Guide , Amulet of Vigor , Summoner's Pact , Hive Mind , Simic Growth Chamber , and Summer Bloom .
Having the other two lands usually means you can play Primeval Titan , fetch up lands, then bounce them back to your hand so you can Summoner's Pact and not die.
February 28, 2014 2:01 a.m.
banning Amulet of Vigor would be ridiculous. The deck has never accomplished anything in tournament and to win on turn 1 in your example would require spirit guide / amulet / 3 bounce lands / hive mind (alternate win con) AND a 0 cost spell...
thats 7 spells. why would they ban a deck because it could possibly have a 7 card opening hand combo?? It would be like banning Archive Trap because someone could have 4 in there opening hand and win turn 1.
February 28, 2014 7:55 a.m.
@xzavierx: Read my second post.
It's also that WotC doesn't like there being anything faster than turn four in Modern. They've banned Blazing Shoal for similar reasons, and that requires you to play Glistener Elf /Inkmoth Nexus turn one, then remove either a nine-drop or higher (like Progenitus ), or having double Blazing Shoal and/or Mutagenic Growth /Giant Growth .
That's only for a turn two kill that requires your opponent not to have Path to Exile or a Lightning Bolt to respond with.
The Amulet of Vigor kill can happen on turn two just by playing a basic land turn one, instead of Simian Spirit Guide . Matthias Hunt made it to day two of the pro tour, but lost to the Blue Moon deck.
They banned Seething Song just for opening up more consistent turn three kills. I doubt they'll let a deck exist that's faster and backs itself up with countermagic and removal, something Storm lacks.
February 28, 2014 8:26 a.m.
Blazing Shoal allowed for 3 card combo..and yes it could be stopped with lightning bolt or path. Just the same way your 7 card combo could be stopped with Swan Song or Spell Pierce
and Seething Song was banned b/c storm was wrecking the meta by winning tournaments and posting 3-5 of top 8 in high level tournaments. Amulet of vigor and it's potential for 7 card opening combo has yet with win anything let alone definte the meta.
February 28, 2014 8:47 a.m.
i'm not saying you're wrong about wizards goal of avoid turn 3 wins. but seething song netted a reliable tun 3 win consistantly because of net mana acceleration of +2, amulet of vigor is only a combo piece that would require 6 other cards for turn 1 or 2 win.
February 28, 2014 8:58 a.m.
SharuumNyan says... #19
I don't see that unreliable one turn kill combo as much of a threat, because in order to have all those cards in your deck the other win-con options are probably very weak. As xzavierx pointed out, any deck running one mana counter spells will breeze right through it. And Mental Misstep is still a counter answer for the opponent with no mana.
Ideally you'd be on the draw, and I would wait until you played most of that combo and then Annul the Hive Mind .
February 28, 2014 9:03 a.m.
i think the real problem is you could be on the play and do that combo, literally making it unstoppable, i dont think Amulet of Vigor should be banned, but it is a very powerful six card combo.
February 28, 2014 9:52 a.m.
NotSoLuckyLydia says... #21
If they do ban Lightning Bolt , I'll laugh madly as I walk away from modern. Because the goal should not be to ban things to open up the format. Unban things. Make the format wider by allowing different decks. As of right now, we are looking at a format that is dominated by midrange/combo, combo/control, and a few control decks. If unbanning bitterblossom and nacatl didn't open up the format, why not unban something to improve aggro? Banning lightning bolt isn't the answer to improving the format. The answer is to make aggro better. If we can't do that with cards that are in modern, why not allow us to play cards from outside sets, like planechase in modern? Modern started out as an experiment. It was dominated first by combo, then by midrange, and now by decks that do both very well. Why not try to open up the format, rather than restrict further what we can play?
February 28, 2014 10:30 a.m.
There were two Storm decks in professional-level top 8s in the six months leading up to the banning of Seething Song . The deck had largely fallen out of use with the bannings of Ponder and Preordain . Out of about a dozen Grand Prixs and Pro Tours, that's only two copies of the deck. Two. Compare that to Jund, which had several dozen copies make top 8. It was hardly format warping, since it dies to Mana Leak .
It's not whether or not the combo can be disrupted. It's that they do not want any sort of semi-consistent turn 1/2/3 kill deck available in Modern. Summer Bloom , Amulet of Vigor , and Hive Mind is all the deck needs to kill early in the game.
We can sit here all day and talk about you can kill it with this or stop it with that or it needs this in its opening hand. The fact is they've banned combos for less offensive interactions. Seething Song stops dead to Mana Leak . Blazing Shoal gets blown out by Spell Pierce . Dark Depths dies to Ghost Quarter .
Amulet of Vigor or another component of that deck has to go since it meets the criteria WotC has put in place for why they ban cards in Modern.
February 28, 2014 10:43 a.m.
megawurmple says... #23
sylvannos I disagree. The Amulet of Vigor T1 combo is very, very inconsistent and, If your opponent uses Spell Pierce on their copy of whatever pact you cast, the combo player loses the turn after. It goes off sometimes if, and only if, you draw the perfect hand and somehow your opponent does nothing to stop it. The deck doesn't win many/any tournaments, and certainly isn't worth banning.
February 28, 2014 11:49 a.m.
The bottom line with Amulet of Vigor is that it isn't effecting the meta in any negative way whatsoever, therefore, no ban is needed. If there were 2-3 top 8 amulet of vigor decks in every single tournament then it would need to be addressed.
WOTC doesn't ban cards just because they can do dumb things, they ban them because they have a negative impact on the format.
The current meta is very healthy, I vote no major changes!
February 28, 2014 12:18 p.m.
just because something could happen turn 1 doesnt mean it's consistent. You'd need 7cards in your opening hand. One of which is a 1 of in a deck and is a 6 cost enchantment. there is statistically less than 2percent chance of hitting that combo in opening 7+ draw. 3 bounce, amulet, enchantment, summer bloom and a 0 cost spell.
i'm aware that seething song didnt top 8 in PTQ...but go check magic online which was the driving force behind the ban.. it was showing up as 3-1 and 4-0 in 2-3 of the top 8 slots every day, and was played in over 10percent of decks which is the about the threashold WOTC lists as overpowered.
the top deck.. Jund had blood braid banned at the same time.
February 28, 2014 1:49 p.m.
forestlore44 says... #26
Any likelihood that anything else from the BGx gang ( Liliana of the Veil , Tarmogoyf , Abrupt Decay & co.) eventually seeing a ban?
February 28, 2014 8:25 p.m.
canterlotguardian says... #27
TitansFTW I can see another reason why that combo wouldn't be a reason for Amulet of Vigor to get banned: Nix is still a thing.
March 4, 2014 11:19 a.m.
megawurmple says... #28
Nix is indeed a thing, but it's no help if you're on the draw. You won't have the mana open to cast it. Also, the T1 combo only needs 6 cards: Simian Spirit Guide , Amulet of Vigor , one bounce land, Summer Bloom , Hive Mind and a 0-cost spell. Not that either of those are actual reasons to ban Amulet of Vigor .
Epochalyptik says... #2
What format?
The ban lists were just updated. Nothing will change until we see what happens to the meta.
February 27, 2014 5:11 p.m.