Monastery Siege... an analysis.
Spoilers, Rumors, and Speculation forum
Posted on Jan. 5, 2015, 8:13 a.m. by gnarlicide
So, I was looking at the spoilers today to decide what I am going to invest in for Fate Reforged.
I came across Monastery Siege.
Its 1.99 right now for pre order. I think it will go up to about 10 bucks. Thats a lot of profit, for those of you that have not ever taken a basic economics class.
Now about why...
There is not too many people really hell bent on control. In all honesty, control decks feel like they are missing something. This might be it.
Its three mana, only one is blue, (so it can be splashed in say... esper.) and it can do a couple things:
It can get you some good card advantage
OR
it can tax you opponents.
I think it will be played in multiples MB in some control lists. Because if you draw another one, you can always play it for the other effect.
Another note is that there is not a TON of enchantment removal that people want to just cram in their decks, so it might stick for a while in a game.
If I was a betting man, I would put a few of my hard earned dollars into this card. Even if you are not a control player, this is a solid short term investment.
8 to stock, 4 to rock.
Methinks you're underestimating it Boza, It's just the card needed for Control (Playing Esper myself). Having an Enchantment that can fuel delve and net you an extra potential answer is what esper control is missing right now, This fills that gap easily, If Divination was at instant speed, yeah in a heartbeat i'd run it.
Now for the second part, Your forgetting that Jeskai Burn/Control WILL be a thing in this new set, So not only does it tax Hero's Downfall, Bile Blight, Murderous Cut, Utter End it shuts out Lightning Strike, Stoke the Flames(Which will be huge, I don't care. Paying 2 and Delving 4 can stop that cruise/dig next turn) and put's a big tax on things like Thoughtseize and Stain the Mind which can be ruthless on a control deck mid game.
But as it stands right now, This is the only enchantment Esper (probably u/b control) would want to run.
January 5, 2015 8:51 a.m.
I'm with Boza. Looting's nice, but control can't afford to tap 3 mana on turn 3. This thing would have to come down after you've stabilized or else you risk spending too much time on not answering threats. Not to mention people are boarding in 4 copies of Erase because of whips and other stuff.
January 5, 2015 8:55 a.m.
Additionally, it is terrible when drawn after turn 6 or so. Playing jeskai control, as you mentioned, you have access to Steam Augury, which will net at least 2 cards in the grave for one more mana, but at instant speed. This card is criminally underplayed in standard right now.
January 5, 2015 8:58 a.m.
This card is really stupid because it doesn't specify you have to discard a card you just drew. Therefore useless lands become more creatures or whatever. It does give you access to the resources you need faster than your opponent. It IS tempo advantage.
I can see this in fringe standard, modern, and edh play. The tax effect is good, the tiny, mini Brainstorm every turn is good.
It's like 6.5 out of 10.
January 5, 2015 9:11 a.m.
It also halts burn and discard which makes it useful sideboard tech in a colour that usually doesn't get much like it.
January 5, 2015 9:16 a.m.
gnarlicide says... #9
Nice conversation, everyone. I like this kind of debate. I see this card getting more than fringe play, though. Because of its price right now, I think its a low risk "investment".
I am not saying that I am perfect at this, but I called the Boros Reckoner spoiler and the Hero's Downfall spoiler. And although it happened waaaaaay later than I expected, I called Desecration Demon.
I would say that my batting average is around 85 percent.
January 5, 2015 9:52 a.m.
Seems like pure sideboard tech to me - hate card against burn heavy strategies.
January 5, 2015 9:59 a.m.
It does not really stop anyone from burning you, it just makes it slower and only when it comes down on turn 3.
@ChiefBell, I request an elaboration: Why is Steam Augury bad and why is this card better than it?
January 5, 2015 10:02 a.m.
slovakattack says... #12
Steam Augury gives your opponent the choice of what to let you keep.
January 5, 2015 10:09 a.m.
@Boza No, it doesn't prevent burn from targeting you. It just makes their spells significantly less efficient (like Chill), and that's whether it comes down on turn 3 or turn 6.
January 5, 2015 10:12 a.m.
And that makes it bad? On average, it is a pretty good deal - out of five cards you can expect to pull 2 cards that have some use and three that are not. Assuming you separate the two cards in two different piles, you are guaranteed to get something out of it. With Monastery Siege, you are exchanging a known card for an unknown one.
Not to mention, this card digs very deep. With Siege, you get the same view after it has been in play for three turns - 3 turns is a lot. Getting there faster while fueling DTT is the name of the game.
January 5, 2015 10:18 a.m.
slovakattack says... #15
The difference is that you can easily offer up a useless card (such as a late land) to the chance of pulling a good one in the case of Monastery Siege. Exchanging a known card for an unknown one is very often an advantage, not a disadvantage. Sure, you're guarenteed to get something out of Steam Augury. You're guaranteed to get something out of Monastery Siege, too. The difference is that the choice is yours as to what to keep.
'Digging deep' isn't as effective a tactic in Standard as it usually is atm due to the presence of fetchlands. Besides, Monastery Siege digs deeper after 3 turns, so that's kind of a moot point.
January 5, 2015 10:22 a.m.
Never ever give your opponent knowledge of what you've just drawn and then the power to take it away from you.
With monastery siege you are not exchanging known for unknown. You draw and then discard.
This card stops a burn deck outright killing you t4. On t3 a burn deck can do 9 damage. With this in play they do 3.
January 5, 2015 10:23 a.m.
The whole swapping known for unknown analogy doesn't even stand here.
January 5, 2015 10:25 a.m.
OK, this begs the question: you want to draw Siege early to get the best advantage possible. Before turn 6 is probably ideal. After turn 6 the card is horrible topdeck. It takes ages to get going and is terrible when behind. People are too harsh on letting the opponent decide, especially in the case of Fact or Fiction cards.
I really do not see that much difference between the two cards - you give the opponent choice in both cases, one is good, the other is bad. Immediate card draw at instant speed is rare in Standard and this card takes the cake for me. Cheaper than Jace's Ingenuity and instant speed compared to Divination, it is position perfectly.
Also, people will be inexperienced playing against this. Think outside of the box.
January 5, 2015 10:32 a.m.
I like Steam Augury, but it's not anywhere near Fact or Fiction. Giving your opponent the choice of which cards go to your hands makes a huge difference.
January 5, 2015 10:36 a.m.
Fact or fiction is in no way comparable to steam augury.
Thinking outside of the box is just another way of saying 'play inefficient cards'. There is no way I'd pay 4 mana to draw 2 cards of my opponents choice.
Monastery siege is completely incomparable. There is no opponent interaction whatsoever. Furthermore drawing an extra card twice is worth the 3 mana I'd say. So it doesn't pay for itself that slowly. Furthermore the second mode can easily pay for itself instantaneously when the burn deck you're facing doesn't win the next turn.
Drawing 2 and then discarding 1 every draw step is a hugely powerful effect. Hugely powerful. Perhaps try playing with it to see. It's insane.
January 5, 2015 10:43 a.m.
Also the card isn't terrible when behind. Accelerating you drawing into board clear or the 1 thing you need is very important when behind.
January 5, 2015 10:44 a.m.
@Boza If your playing a good control deck you should not be top decking turn 6 anyways..
January 5, 2015 10:51 a.m.
ChiefBell is right on that as well. I wouldn't mind seeing that top deck turn 6.
Cast Monastery Siege with Dragons and clutch a counterspell or two. Easily.
January 5, 2015 10:55 a.m.
Perhaps it is just my playstyle, perhaps it is just the fact that I do not play too much standard right now, but with the limited playability that this card has gotten I do not think it can be counted out of standard or any other format.
Thinking outside of the box is indeed just another way of saying 'play inefficient cards'. But there are few cards that are inefficient, just the incorrect shell. Is there a URX control deck right now in the meta? There are a few decks in standard right now and none of them are control in those colors.
None of those cards have been tested sufficiently in any shape or form, but my money would on Grixis Control with the printing of Crux of Fate. In that shell, I would play Augury over Siege any day of the week.
January 5, 2015 10:57 a.m.
Uhhh jeskai tempo control ran blue red and didn't touch augury. Bit out of fashion now but was MASSIVE when khans first came out.
Regarding grixis - You'd play steam augury so that the opponent can choose to bin the Crux of Fate you just drew? It makes no logical sense. If you're going for the long game then this card gives you so much value of time. Augury falls flat.
January 5, 2015 11:01 a.m.
I'm pretty sure Andrew Cuneo played Steam Augury in his Jeskai Control deck this weekend (he finished just outside of the top 8 so we don't have decklists yet).
It clearly isn't a great card, but it does give you some control of which cards you draw, and it fuels future Digs Through Time.
January 5, 2015 11:14 a.m.
Delve makes it significantly better than it was before.
January 5, 2015 11:37 a.m.
CommanderOfBolas says... #29
As the resident Grixis expert on the site (I hope that isn't too much of a stretch), Id like to add that Steam Augury is pretty horrible for control decks. here is my reasoning: often times in a control deck, you are looking for specific cards to catch you up. By giving your opponent the option to bin your Crux of Fate or Anger of the Gods, you are failing to provide yourself a way to stabilize. Monastery Siege provides consistent card selection, fuel for delve, and, against a burn or discard deck, some serious tempo.
January 5, 2015 12:26 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #30
I have a hard time seeing any control deck run this in Standard. U/B Control has to be playing at instant speed with 2-4 mana available and keep the board clear. Tapping out for this enchantment seems unlikely in most match ups.
If it is going to see play it will be in the sideboard of a tempo based aggro deck for grindy match ups. Getting an early threat on board and then using the tax to tempo the midrange/control decks out or using it to keep your hand full of gas if the game is going long will be it's uses. Not sure U/W Heroic has room for this but it fits in the deck better than any other Standard deck.
January 5, 2015 12:35 p.m.
Schuesseled says... #31
Steam Augury is only really good if you are playing against a noob or you don't care what goes to your graveyard, because of graveyard shenanigans. Both this card and Monastery Siege work wonders in a delve deck, but siege has the advantage of letting you choose what to bin, being cheaper, and trigger every turn.
I'd say it has good prospects.
January 5, 2015 12:39 p.m.
It's certainly something that warrants testing and it certainly won't be a dollar card.
January 5, 2015 12:42 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #33
Steam Augury is bad in typical control decks. It is at its best in homogeneous decks with linear strategies. If your running a list that is heavy on burn and aggressive creatures or one with a high density of counterspells and boardwipes it preforms great.
January 5, 2015 12:42 p.m.
CommanderOfBolas says... #34
Depending on the scenario, a turn 3 play is definitely viable. In the control matchups, turn 3 is perfectly okay. in the agro matchups, youprobably need to cast Drown in Sorrow or Anger of the Gods first. After that, it should be easy to drop this enchantment and move on. The midrange decks are where it is very situational. depending on who is on the play, and what kind of mana they have available will largely determine when to play it. put I definitely think it is viable in virtually every matchup
January 5, 2015 12:46 p.m.
Nigeltastic says... #35
I am a huge advocate for card filtering being insanely important. I'm playing a sultai control list with Sultai Ascendancy and the ability to dig deeper, pull what you need more often, and fuel delve is amazing. If I am not in imminent threat of dying by doing so I drop it turn 3 every game i can and not burning out by drawing lands or dead cards is huge. I'll play probably 4 of this siege no question.
January 5, 2015 2:06 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #36
Shaun McLaren and Ari Lax both predicted that Monastery Siege will see little to no play in their articles today.
January 6, 2015 1:16 p.m.
Nigeltastic says... #37
I don't believe them. If/When control picks up popularity, I'm confident this will be in there.
January 6, 2015 1:21 p.m.
I reckon this will be side boarded in UB and UW control, and maybe mained in UW heroic and grixis control but that's it. Jeskai has no use for this card, as Mantis Rider is just a waaay better turn 3 play. UW heroic makes the tax very helpful, and the other mode is still there if your opponent isn't interacting much. However this is an almost dead topdeck late game unfortunately, and is too slow in the early game a lot of the time. It has potential though, but i don't see it seeing too much play. Another neat application is that it lets you main board situational cards, and just chuck them if the matchup is not good for them. Drown in Sorrow rotting in your hand against abzan? Loot closer to Disdainful Stroke, and vice-versa in the aggro matchup.
January 13, 2015 6:55 p.m.
Femme_Fatale says... #39
It is mainly good in Azorius control, the one kind of control that I feel is still the best right now. It doesn't matter what deck I play, I cannot beat it, I'd have to go control to beat it.
Boza says... #2
I am calling it right now - this will be a dollar rare, at any point in time. Reasons for that:
It is absolutely useless in a control deck, since it does nothing for three mana. I would prefer to pay for Read the Bones or Divination than Siege.
I do see very fringe EDH applications, but nothing that has not already been done better (Kira for one mode and Ceta Sanctuary for the other)
January 5, 2015 8:37 a.m.