Prognostic Sphinx vs Silumgar, the Drifting Death
Standard forum
Posted on Jan. 7, 2015, 1:33 p.m. by omnipotato
Prognostic Sphinx and Silumgar, the Drifting Death are pretty similar. Both are 3-power flyers which can gain hexproof. Which is better to use in a control deck in Standard (control deck meaning that this will be the only creature you have out most of the time)?
Here's my analysis of the two cards -
Prognostic Sphinx pros:
Costs less mana
Lets you scry and find answers to threats
Requires only one color to play
Silumgar, the Drifting Death pros:
Doesn't require you to discard to give it hexproof
Higher toughness
Kills opponent's creatures
Works better with Crux of Fate, if that's being included in your deck
The "discard to give hexproof ability" on the Sphinx is almost as good as hexproof though, since most players don't want to trade their Hero's Downfall for the worst card in your hand.
My favorite thing about Silumgar is he basically invalidates Elspeth, Sun's Champion because he kills her tokens every turn and can't be killed by the minus ability.
What do you guys think? Silumgar or Sphinx for a U/B or Esper Control deck?
Also if you're playing control then you should be the one using Elspeth really.
January 7, 2015 1:41 p.m.
I'm a fan of Silumgar, for the most part. And you have to think, not every control deck is W right now
January 7, 2015 1:45 p.m.
I just think that his ability is overall less useful to a control deck. It's good against token aggro - but that's a deck that shouldn't allow you to reach T7 to cast him.
January 7, 2015 1:46 p.m.
Loco-Motive says... #6
I think the dragon can be useful in a Sultai control, but for the sideboard. Run into a token deck or an Elspeth deck? Then bring in two copies of him. And as for waiting until T7 to cast him, that may happen in regular Esper or U/B control decks...but in Sultai, you have Caryatid/Coursers/Kiora to potentially get him out on the board sooner.
I run a Sultai Villainous Wealth deck that I plan on including the dragon into the sideboard when he comes out. Of note, I run 1 Prognostic Sphinx in the deck.
I think, of the dragons, he's one of the more exciting/usable ones, with the Abzan dragon coming in at a close second.
January 7, 2015 1:53 p.m.
omnipotato says... #7
Loco-Motive why not just keep copies of Drown in Sorrow in the sideboard? I think ChiefBell is right, Drown in Sorrow does what Silumgar does but sooner, so it can halt quick token decks in their tracks. As for Elspeth, a Sultai control deck should have other answers to her like Dissolve or Hero's Downfall
January 7, 2015 1:59 p.m.
Without any testing, Prognostic Sphinx is probably better. I do think it's close enough to warrant testing. Scry 3 is excellent, but the -1/-1 ability is pretty relevant too with the number token based strategies around. Firm hexproof and higher toughness makes it a better blocker (can't use a removal spell to tap it down).
I've never been a big fan of ProgSphinx as a wincon, and I probably won't care much for this big dragon. Still, he seems like he's on the edge of playability, and it's my favorite in the cycle.
January 7, 2015 2:04 p.m.
QuodNoceretur says... #9
In the current Standard Meta, I believe that Silumgur, the Drifting Death is a better threat. First of all, it kills Monastery Mentor Monk tokens, it kills Hordeling Outburst/Goblin Rabblemaster tokens, it kills Raise the Alarm tokens, it kills Hornet Queen tokens, it has natural hexproof which in many cases is better, it survives Crux of Fate, it can't even be targeted by Sultai Charm, it can stay on defense even it is untapped, it isn't card inefficient. Even though you can Scry a lot with Prognostic Sphinx, it will only lose you cards when you discard, and your not going to be drawing useless cards as often if you are scrying the good ones to the top, meaning you will have to spend good spells to save Sphinx, it can favorably attack into Wingmate Roc, it will be able to attack every turn because it can't just be targeted to tap it down, if you happen to have another dragon, it turns into a half an Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite when it attacks, and it can also attack into Butcher of the Horde, Stormbreath Dragon (Bounces off if he goes Monstrous), and I'm sure there's more I'm missing.
That's a list of Standard Relevant Benefits that it has that Prognostic Sphinx doesn't. Sphinx's list looks like this:
Can fuel Delve (requires it to get tapped and the need of hexproof, costs one less (Not as Relevant in a control deck), doesn't cost black mana (not that important because many control decks run black, and can scry (already explained why this is meh)
January 7, 2015 2:12 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #10
Prognostic Sphinx is a sorry card is most definitely outclassed by Silumgar, the Drifting Death. Can't think of a single pro that still bothers with that card.
The real question is: What are the correct #'s to run of these 3 wincons in U/B Control?
January 7, 2015 2:13 p.m.
QuodNoceretur Silumgar, the Drifting Death Does not prevent it from board wipes. It just prevents it from being targeted by spells you don't control. It still can be killed by Crux of Fate
January 7, 2015 2:21 p.m.
Why would you run a 7 drop wincon when you have a 5 drop wincon that does the job just fine?
The only one of those that's obviously better is Ugin due it being super hard to interact with. Although Ugin isn't that great at just instal-winning the game. His ult for example depends on you having other things to put out.
I don't understand what's wrong with a flier with 5 toughness, that means you draw into the cards you want AND has pseudo hexproof.
None of those other cards bar Ugin have relevant abilities when considering the fact that you want to keep going; having more removal, more counters etc. Ugin DOES provide this so I like that.
January 7, 2015 2:24 p.m.
omnipotato says... #13
I really hate Pearl Lake Ancient. Returning lands to your hand is the worst possible thing you can do in a control deck. Even if I had 13 lands, I wouldn't want to return 3 to my hand. Then I couldn't End Hostilities and play Elspeth, Sun's Champion on the same turn.
January 7, 2015 2:26 p.m.
PLA is 7. My general point is - why spend more mana than you have to.
January 7, 2015 2:30 p.m.
omnipotato says... #16
Oh right. I think you said somewhere else that it takes 7 turns to cast him though. I think I'm with you though, Drown in Sorrow is what you should be doing if you want the same effect, and scry 3 a turn is invaluable for a control deck.
January 7, 2015 2:33 p.m.
PLA having flash is a big reason to play it. Ceteris paribus, I'd rather flash PLA in end of my opponent's turn for 7 mana than tap 5 mana for ProgSphinx on mine.
January 7, 2015 2:37 p.m.
omnipotato says... #18
Mana cost isn't my problem with PLA, it's the evasion ability's cost and the fact that it doesn't have flying or trample. If my opponent draws a Hordeling Outburst his clock just increased by 3.
January 7, 2015 2:45 p.m.
The dragon deals with hornet queen tokens which is huge.
January 7, 2015 2:50 p.m.
@Rasta_Viking29 I don't see any of those making a control list.
A) Ugin is WAY too much to play late game and you want to keep mana open, especially late game to make sure you have total control, Casting him out to just get hit with a downfall and you'd feel pretty silly. Considering anything running black is running downfall.
B)Silumgar, the Drifting Death is on the 6 CMC curve, Right where Elspeth sits, I'd much rather be casting her out to flood the board.
C) I've tested a few times, While it's great to flash in during a block to remove one of their fatties they think is safe, BUT it's just as likely to bite it to removal (Especially with FTF coming out)
I agree 100% with ChiefBell
Prognostic Sphinx is being ran in ALOT of u/b lists right now (Although in the SB) because they provide much needed stability against midrange strategies, also it fit's the curve perfectly, not alot of u/b have a 5 cmc drop to play at the moment (Aside from Crux or End Hostilities)
I actually run 4 MB because he's just so versatile on the board, His scry 3 is HUGE for my control build because there's nothing with that much repeatable value (in creatures) and you don't even have to do damage to scry and the fact you can pitch cards to give it hexproof means late game lands can turn into fodder for the sphinx while you clutch counterspells to whittle them away. He's an easy win-con in a solid control build.
Seriously i've played a few games getting down to 1-2 life and a couple sphinx's on the board and a resolved Sorin once you take over late game and that's GG.
January 7, 2015 3:04 p.m.
omnipotato says... #21
I agree with Caligula. I think Ugin is too slow, even for a control deck. An 8 CMC spell should be winning you the game on its own no problem, and I can see myself ultimating Ugin in a control deck and not hitting a single permanent. And if I do hit a permanent, the best one would be Elspeth, Sun's Champion. Might as well just cast Elspeth for on turn 6 than cast Ugin on turn 8 and bring out Elspeth turn 10.
January 7, 2015 3:11 p.m.
omnipotato that is just spot on as to why Ugin is bad in control.
He belong's in Mono-G ramp as removal OR Ramp-BUG build.
January 7, 2015 3:17 p.m.
omnipotato says... #23
Yeah I've seen some crazy Villainous Wealth builds that can generate 8 mana on turn 4 or 5 pretty easily, and can put Hornet Queen, Whip of Erebos, etc into play with Ugin.
January 7, 2015 3:19 p.m.
@Caligula But U/B runs PLA or Ashiok as the main board wincon, not Prognostic Sphinx. PLA's lack of evasion can definitely be frustrating at times, but it doesn't come up that often. You eventually drop it on an empty board and win. I'm not sure I understand the part about removal, it's the most resilient wincon in the format. If you're talking about opponents using removal to keep it from blocking, the same can be said for ProgSphinx.
As for Ugin, even if he's downfalled, you're still wrathing the board. If he isn't downfalled, or if you have counter magic to deal with their answers, he sticks around as a wincon. The only real problem I see with Ugin is the potential to have too many 7-8 CMC spells clogging your hand.
January 7, 2015 3:23 p.m.
Okay, Looking at top 8 lists, Your right, I saw 2 running 2 PLA, 1 running both, 2 running 3x Sphinx, 2 just running walkers and 1 running 1 Sphinx.
All top 3.
I dunno, I'm sticking to my guns, Prognostic Sphinx > Pearl Lake Ancient.
January 7, 2015 3:39 p.m.
Loco-Motive says... #26
I never meant for the new Dragon to REPLACE Drown in Sorrow. It's a complement to Drown. For a control deck...the Dragon's butt his huge for protecting your life, and his constant hexproof means he can chump block anything and they can't follow up with a Lightning Strike to his ass. It's a 7-butt...he'll even block PLA!
Perhaps there's a combo here, whereas the OP was asking which is better...but why do they need to be "vs" at all? Sphinx in the main, Dragon in the side, they can be switched out. I certainly don't know if the Dragon is MAINboard quality, but I see his value in the side not only to deal with tokens, but to also deal with some creature pressure as well as being a VERY good all-around answer to Elspeth's tokens and her loyalty.
January 7, 2015 3:41 p.m.
Nigeltastic says... #27
I have little to add to the discussion other than that I think PLA is awful and flash uncounterable is cute, but bouncing 3 lands is too painful, especially if they then just cast another kill spell and you either picked up 3 lands for nothing or you pick up 6 lands and lose anyway.
January 7, 2015 3:51 p.m.
omnipotato says... #28
jr92_2000 Not only can PLA not block when someone uses removal on him, you have to return lands to your hand to save him, and that's my biggest problem with him. Yes, he's resilient but you may have to wait another few turns to play him again if someone uses a Downfall or two on him.
8 mana is a lot to pay for a board wipe, and that's usually what he's going to be doing in a control deck when he comes into play, and then a few useless Lightning Bolts before he invariably dies before it gets to his ultimate. Or if you already have control, you do a couple of useless Lightning Bolts then ultimate into an Elspeth, Sun's Champion. Not my idea of a match-winning card.
Loco-Motive how many "all creatures get -x/-x" abilities do you want in your deck? I'd just have 4 Drown in sorrows sideboard if your deck is susceptible to token aggro strategies.
January 7, 2015 3:52 p.m.
@omnipotato Yeah, the tempo loss can be steep which just means that you have to be patient before deploying him. That drawback also can prove beneficial when you bounce Radiant Fountains or Scry lands. I really don't want to defend PLA; it's just the best of a lot of poor win cons if you're not in white.
You're a control deck. If you're untapping with Ugin on the battlefield, how is he invariably dying? I'm not sure how relevant Ugin's ultimate is; once you have control, it's probably best just to bolt every turn until they're dead. However, Ugin's ultimate is basically a Rev for 7. How is a control deck losing from that position?
January 7, 2015 4:02 p.m.
omnipotato says... #30
Returning 3 of your own lands to your hand can never be beneficial, especially if you're running a control deck. I'd much rather have 3 lands than gain 2 life and scry 2. The reason I run white in my control deck is basically because I hate PLA as a wincon and I hate Perilous Vault as a boardwipe.
Ok let's say if you untap with Ugin you pretty much win the game. What's the chance you're going to untap with him after minusing? Either you wait till you get 11 mana then play him with Dissolve up, or one Lightning Strike or Hero's Downfall or hasty creature or Whip of Erebos will kill him. If you have a counterspell then 2. Remember this is a control deck, so most of the opponent's removal will be sitting dead in their hand waiting for something like Ugin.
January 7, 2015 4:23 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #31
Bouncing three lands usually just gains U/B more life and a buffer.
I'm not sure why you guys are debating theories about which finisher to play. The problem has been solved and there are hours of high level players piloting the deck on video. PLA is the choice currently.
Here's Andrew Brown's Tourney Report from GP Den to shed some light on how the deck plays for those who don't have the time to watch coverage.
January 7, 2015 4:23 p.m.
omnipotato says... #32
Rasta_Viking29 I've seen U/B control lose so many times because of tempo loss from PLA. A Sultai or Abzan Whip deck will run circles around a U/B control deck if they have 8 lands and the control deck has 5.
>but the pros said it so they have to be right
January 7, 2015 4:27 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #33
omnipotato it's not a matter of what the pros say... It's just how the deck functions within the meta. Have you played against U/B Control in a competitive tournament?
January 7, 2015 4:31 p.m.
That was just 1 U/b deck that took first place, I doubt PLA will be that consistent, 2014 cup winner ran u/b walkers, no PLA and the Standard open winners before that both ran 1 Sphinx.
January 7, 2015 4:37 p.m.
omnipotato says... #35
Yes I have and I beat it (though I was playing a super fast Temur deck that was probably a bad matchup for it)
Give an argument for why it's good other than "The pros play it more often than they play Sphinx so it must be better."
Anyway, this thread is about which is a better card: Sphinx or Silumgar. It wasn't supposed to be "which is the best win-con to run in U/B control"
January 7, 2015 4:39 p.m.
I think which finisher to run depends on your FMN Meta, For example imy meta has many U/B control decks (most common control in current standard behind Jeskai and Mardu). In the Mirror match Pearl Lake Ancient is far superior to Prognostic Sphinx
The cost of returning 3 lands to your hand can sometimes be a plus later in the game to gain life from Radiant Fountain and gain Scry from Scrylands
Personally I think Silumgar, the Drifting Death is a fine win-con but I think That pearl lake ancient and prognostic sphinx are far better.
Ultimately if your meta is aggro/Midrange heavy Go for Sphinx, If it is control heave use PLA or Silumgar
I personally use Pearl Lake Ancient but I have not tested Silumgar, the Drifting Death
January 7, 2015 4:55 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #37
Why would I take the time to write out 500+ some odd words to explain something that has been beaten to death already? There are many players with more skill and experience than I have who have already taken the time to do so. Not only that but a couple of other users have already posted the gist of it here.
The answer to the question poised in the thread is Silumgar. This is known.
Now the competitive community is trying to figure out if Silumgar or Ugin is worth running over Pearl Lake Ancient or in conjunction with the fish. It's the natural course for the discussion to head in, unless you like spinning your wheels.
January 7, 2015 4:56 p.m.
I just don't see how Silumgar, the Drifting Death fits in he costs 6 mana more expensive than sphinx and is far too slow against aggro and isn't as efficient against midrange and control as PLA or sphinx is
January 7, 2015 4:58 p.m.
omnipotato says... #39
PLA vs Sphinx is up for discussion because as Caligula pointed out, not all the U/B decks are using PLA as their main win con.
Sphinx vs Silumgar is up for discussion because no one has even played with Silumgar yet competitively so you really can't compare. All we can do is think of situations where Sphinx would be better or Silumgar would be better and get a cost-benefit analysis of playing either.
>This is known
Known by whom? Time travelers who know that Silumgar will dominate the format when we actually start playing games with it?
As for PLA vs. Silumgar vs. Ugin, I'd love to talk about it. I've already expressed my opinion on PLA and Ugin. Which do you think is the strongest out of the three?
January 7, 2015 5:13 p.m.
omnipotato says... #40
dberg101 Surely you mean use Silumgar if your meta is aggro? It would be pretty useless against a control deck.
January 7, 2015 5:23 p.m.
QuodNoceretur says... #41
@showda I meant your own Crux of Fate naming non-dragons :P
Also, Drown in Sorrow is great, but when it comes to being a versatile wincon, Silumgar takes the cake, playing a better defense, a more consistent offense, doubling as removal, and not costing cards and usability to gain hexproof. Additionally, Prognostic Sphinx can't block Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury, which could be a role-player in Mardu Tokens, it cannot block Polukranos, World Eater, Tasigur, or any other 5/x's without sacrificing itself.
Elspeth has had so many hate cards printed that I feel she is more of a sideboard/ 1-2 of now-a-days. I feel that running Prognostic Sphinx is way to iffy right now. Silumgar can't be Hammerhand'ed or Goblin Heelcutter'ed on defense, and it takes out the plethora of x/1's currently all over the place. Honestly, I can't see a time when I would rather have Prognostic other than when I'm digging for certain spells, which Dig Through Time and Treasure Cruise do just fine.
January 7, 2015 5:52 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #42
I don't feel that I have the intimate knowledge of the deck to properly evaluate that. If I had to make a guess it would be PLA.
U/B as currently constructed leans heavily on Perilous Vault which plays great with PLA and is a nombo with the Sphinx. Assuming Vault is still the sweeper of choice the deck is still going to want to play the draw go game while trading resources 1 for 1 until they can safely Dig Through Time or flash PLA in on the opponents EoT and never leave themselves exposed. I see Silumgar taking the Sphinx's job in grindy matchups. It blocks better and pressures PWs the same while being harder to remove. It's triggered ability allows you to still play the 1 for 1 game against Elspeth, Sun's Champion, Hordeling Outburst, and other tokens which encourages opponents to over commit into your Vaults. End up running something like: 4x Perilous Vault, 1-2x Crux of Fate, 2 Pearl Lake Ancient, and 1x Silumgar, the Drifting Death in the mainboard.
If Crux of Fate is the sweeper of choice then I'd say Silumgar and Ugin are the finishers in more of a tap out control build. I really don't think that is where it's headed though.
January 7, 2015 6:08 p.m.
omnipotato says... #43
What hate cards are there against Elspeth, Sun's Champion? I'm running 3 and when I get one out it's usually game over unless they have Hero's Downfall/Dissolve/2 Lightning Strikes in their hand. Even if they kill it before she ultimates most decks have trouble beating 6 or 9 tokens if you have sufficient removal/countermagic to back them up.
I was leaning toward Sphinx but I dunno, it really depends how the meta looks after Fate Reforged comes out. If they're mostly all the same decks with the same popularity, I'm probably going with Sphinx, but if there's a shift toward token decks with Kolaghan for example I'll consider Silumgar.
January 7, 2015 6:13 p.m.
omnipotato says... #44
Rasta_Viking29 That makes sense. So using Perilous Vault + PLA or Crux of Fate + Silumgar gives you a huge advantage. I guess adding white to the deck changes its goals significantly. End Hostilities and maybe a one of Fated Retribution replace Perilous Vault so that synergy between it and PLA is lost.
January 7, 2015 6:23 p.m.
Rasta_Viking29 says... #45
omnipotato yeah adding white changes a lot. It increases your card quality and ability to interact with the board at the expense of consistency. You can play much more of a tap out game since you can recover from falling behind more effectively. Alongside Elspeth the Sphinx seems to do just fine other than the mana issues that can arise like in this Esper deck.
January 7, 2015 6:52 p.m.
omnipotato says... #46
Yeah the mana can be a bitch. I didn't get 1st at my last FNM because I couldn't get a second blue source until turn 7. With the Esper deck you need 2 black sources and 2 blue sources by turn 3, and 2 white sources by turn 5. Otherwise you'll quickly fold to an aggressive deck.
January 7, 2015 7:03 p.m.
I don't really see how this is a hard choice. I really, really like the whole "scry 3" on sphinx, but the whole "tap and give hexproof" part of him has been absolutely terrible for me these last three months. Stabilize against a midrange deck? Don't make me laugh. They have nothing else to be using removal on, and you DON'T want to be using counter magic just to keep your sphinx from tapping. If you DO use your counter, one of whats probably 7-9 in the deck and 1-2 in your hand at this point, then they probably end up resolving something the turn after. It's just not a good idea. You honestly just have to time it perfectly. The board has to be clear, and you need mana up to stop their Rhino, Elspeth, Whip, Ascendency or whatever else the hell they have that you can't otherwise deal with from coming out. Lastly, discarding to give hexproof is card disadvantage, which is really the last place a control deck wants to be. Yea, it's usually your worst card, but a lot of the times it's not. It's one of two or three GOOD cards in your hand, but you can't afford to lose the sphinx. And so you lose a counterspell, boardwipe, card draw spell or whatever. And that's not good.
The only matchup i've liked Sphinx in is against Jeskai burn/aggro, because they can't deal with it, but control just laughs at jeskai in general so that's somewhat irrelevant.
I think that having static Hexproof is going to be a much, much bigger deal than some of you seem to realize. On top of that, not having to actually RUN drown in sorrow in the sideboard frees up slots. There's value in that by itself.
Do I think this new dragon is the best finisher i've ever seen? Not even close. Is it better than the sphinx? Yea, yea it is. And with the introduction of Palace Siege for drain and gain, it's much better than the bouncetastic PLA.
I should point out that this is from the perspective of a U/B control list, not a U/W or Esper (lol) list.
January 8, 2015 11:36 p.m.
Yeah, ProgSphinx is pretty bad in most cases. I'm not even running him in the sideboard anymore since Jeskai Tempo isn't really a deck anymore. This new dragon may just be better. I still don't think you're cutting Drown in Sorrows though. This guy comes down so late in the game that you could be ran over before you can start triggering the -1/-1.
This dragon could be a better finisher than PLA, but I don't think Palace Siege has much of a place. Seems too slow to really deserve its spot.
January 9, 2015 8:50 a.m.
Rhadamanthus says... #50
Silumgar would be great as another sideboard card against aggro if your local metagame warrants it, but Scry 3 is pretty huge, and I don't think the deck I'm currently playing (THS-KTK-M15 Sultai Control) would be half as good without Prognostic Sphinx.
Sphinx's hexproof-granting ability is no more "card disadvantage" than Negate is. Activating it is a 1-for-1 trade. Once you learn when it is and isn't a good play to save him, it's a really awesome ability (the same can be said about Pearl Lake Ancient). The only cards that can reliably kill him are the same ones that will be killing Silumgar: End Hostilities, Crackling Doom, and (in a few weeks) Crux of Fate.
ChiefBell says... #2
Prognostic sphinx is better.
Whilst it doesn't have hexproof all the time, a control deck wants to scry 3 often more than it wants to give creatures -1/-1. Given that this one creature will mainly be the only thing out, there is no way that giving things -1/-1 is anywhere near as impactful as scry 3. Also the scry 3 helps you to fuel your 'discard to make hexproof' by letting you decide what you draw.
If you want the effect of Silumgar then run Drown in Sorrow
January 7, 2015 1:37 p.m.