Keep or mulligan?
Standard forum
Posted on June 6, 2015, 11:58 a.m. by coco259
This was a trcky hand I got last day when I was tied with a atarka's red deck and was 3rd gamemy hand was:
1x temple of plenty2x fleecemane lion1x hidden dragonslayer1x stratus dancer1x dromoka's command1x deathmist raptor
I was on the drawI kept this hand but I drew the only land that was not helpful in my deck (island, the only one that I use), everybode tells me a mistake to keep a hand like that but I fell like two draw turns and a scry should be enough to find the land I needed......What do u think of this scenario? Do u keep or mulligan?
I probably would have kept. Your hand consists of 3 two-drops. You'd probably need to trade some creatures but you'd eventually draw land.
June 6, 2015 12:09 p.m.
FAMOUSWATERMELON says... #4
Mull. You got no one-drops and no guarantee of finding another land.
June 6, 2015 12:10 p.m.
I always keep these types of hands and they never work out :P
June 6, 2015 12:12 p.m.
Mull. The risk is too great for the relative lack of reward. If you don't draw a land, you lose. If you do, you get a fleecemane and need another land.
June 6, 2015 12:57 p.m.
Assuming it's the Raptor deck in your profile. You're getting three looks, 2 draw steps and a scry, at the remaining 23 lands in your deck. There are 53 and then 52 cards in the library. So you're ~40% on each look to see a land, which you can adjust for a dead land or tapped land.
So you need to compare those chances against how likely you think that hand is going to beat Atarka Red. That hand is pretty strong, but not like the nuts. I think it's quite borderline and probably worth shipping then.
June 6, 2015 2:22 p.m.
How many lands do you have that ETB tapped. If it's quite large, I'd ship much more readily. If you're running fetches, I'd be more inclined to keep.
June 6, 2015 2:29 p.m.
the remaining lands are:3 temple of plenty4 windswepth heath3 flooded strand1 mana confluence5 forest2 plains 1 island4 yavimaya coast
June 6, 2015 2:38 p.m.
I just took a look at the rest of your deck. I'd mull that.
June 6, 2015 2:43 p.m.
spyroswiz29 says... #11
Even if you got a 2 drop, the change of drawing a second land is low, so the safer play is to mulligan. You cant depend on drawing a land, although you got to scry.
June 6, 2015 3:15 p.m.
MinscAndBoo says... #12
Always mull one-landers, especially on the draw against aggro. It's a hard lesson to learn (took me a while).
June 6, 2015 5:35 p.m.
UpperDeckerTaco says... #13
I would mulligan because A) Fleecemane is really you're only profitable 2 drop. B) You have no 1 drop action to benefit your missed land drops. C) every other creature that you have in hand you'd want to almost always morph (with the exception of the Raptor)
June 6, 2015 7:15 p.m.
Named_Tawyny says... #14
Mulliganing one-landers is emotionally tough, but always necessary.
I mean, you've got a hand full of gas, and they all do good things for you, right? And you only need 1 or 2 more land to make it all work!
It's a trap. Mull.
June 7, 2015 10:29 a.m.
You mull. You might feel your hand was decent with the right land draw but without it, you are locked out of the game and you lose massive tempo, if you don't lose outright.
Critical risk for middling upside.
ducttapedeckbox says... #2
I almost always mulligan a one-land hand. Especially if I don't have a one-mana solution to draw a card (which doesn't happen in Standard anyways). Note that I exclusively play control, so these one-land hands never work for me and thankfully rarely occur.
June 6, 2015 12:03 p.m.