Card distribution in draft incorrect?
TappedOut forum
Posted on Aug. 14, 2016, 12:20 p.m. by keflavich
I was wondering if anyone else noticed large discrepancies in the frequency of cards in the Draft Simulation. I can't provide any strong statistics, but in SOI + EMN I think the double-sided cards have been too common by a factor of 2-3. Especially notable were Solitary Hunter in SOI and Ulvenwald Captive Flip in EMN, which I routinely see 3+ copies of in a draft, though I think they should have a lower likelihood. Can anyone verify this, and possibly a tappedout representative address it?
Good question. Doing some research:http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/limited-sealed-draft/682823-double-faced-card-rarity-in-shadows-over-innistrad?comment=7 (this post is hard to parse, but it has a lot of details & methods)
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/expected-numbers-of-specific-cards-in-shadows-over-innistrad-limited gives a much simpler summary:
"DraftAn eight-person Shadows over Innistrad draft uses a total of 24 packs and will, on average, contain:
for regular cards: 2.1 copies of a given Common, 0.9 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.4 copies of a given Rare, and 0.2 copies of a given Mythic.for double-faced cards: 2.0 copies of a given Common, 0.8 copies of a given Uncommon, 0.4 copies of a given Rare, and 0.2 copies of a given Mythic."
An important note from earlier:"two-third of the cards in the common/uncommon double-faced card slot will be uncommons"
Because there are fewer common DFCs, I suspect that their frequency is incorrectly represented. There should be, according to this, uncommons DFCs in ~2/3 of boosters - if there are instead uncommon DFCs in 3/14 boosters (which matches their distribution for SFCs), then the commons will be too common by a factor of ~3.
August 14, 2016 1:06 p.m.
cool thanks for the research, it shouldn't be hard to tune this
yeaGO says... #2
Maybe. What's the proper frequency exactly?
August 14, 2016 12:49 p.m.