Card Odds
TappedOut forum
Posted on Nov. 30, 2010, 3:19 a.m. by RabbitRulez
The Card Odds function is just...pure random. It's just making the thing playtest a 100 times and see the top 26 cards, then noting it down.
An example is that with my Trusty Toolbox deck(60 card, 4 Fauna Shamans), I got a 0.91 under 'Turn 1', where proper chances dictate that
4/60 + 4/59 + 4/58 + 4/57 + 4/56 + 4/55 + 4/54 = 0.49
Also, when I refreshed the card odds, instead of remaining constant, it changed to 0.63. Is this it? Luck, luck, and luck? Sure, M:TG contains luck, but when doing Card Odds, I think that precise answers, calculated by maths, should be used.
@ yeago!
What do you mean exactly by "choices"? Besides "search your library"-effects, the chances of drawing a card by turn x can be calculated:
"H (n) = C (X, n) * C (Y - X, Z - n) / C (Y, Z)
X stands for the number of a certain card that you have in the deck.
Y is the number of cards in the deck.
Z is the number of cards you are drawing.
N is the number you are checking for."
Quote from http://www.kibble.net/magic/magic10.php
November 30, 2010 12:31 p.m.
Well I can do it either way really.
What's there I guess isn't odds. Its how many you got on that turn on average.
So if you see 2.3 for Swamps, that means you had 2 or maybe 3 in your opening hand most of the time.
You could do it the perfect odds way, too.
November 30, 2010 2:10 p.m.
zerotimestatechamp says... #5
I think the perfect odds way is more useful. The other way tries to accomplish the same goal but does it with error. Because the odds is just used to predict and not in any real game situation the exact odds route makes more sense to me. As always I'm psyched at your continual additions of features!
November 30, 2010 2:46 p.m.
There is one thing though. Basicly, for 60-card decks, it's a whole lot easier stating a table with the given percentages if you have 1/2/3/4 cards of a specific type.
Since right now, it'll just give a bunch of almost equal numbers (only depending on how many of each card you got).
I don't know.. It's probably possible to make it into some kind of nifty useful thing, somehow. Just can't come up with something at this moment.
November 30, 2010 2:54 p.m.
Kulminator says... #9
So...you said it's fixed, but what method is it using now? Math formula? A pattern of random draws? If it uses a pattern of random draws, what formula is that pattern using? I'm really keen to know how it works, please...
June 16, 2012 6:16 a.m.
i suspect its working the way in the original post, but I'm not sure i didn't do it
yeaGO says... #2
Heya,
At first I did it the precise way and it was all rather boring and flat.
There is no precise answers without choices. As picks happen the odds change.
The "proper chances" you illustrated assume that a Fauna wasn't picked in any of the hands. By pick 7, you were still looking for 4. See?
November 30, 2010 9:39 a.m.