Playtesting might be malfunctioning
TappedOut forum
Posted on Nov. 13, 2013, 2:52 p.m. by Dallie
I was playtesting a deck which had Dark Ritual as a 4-of, the chances of it being in my opening hand were roughly 40 %.
In spite of that, in more than 20 playtests I failed to see it in my opening hand. I -did- draw into it on following draws, but it still seems like it would be too much of a coincidence to miss a 40% chance in all of 20 games.
Has anyone experienced anything similar?
The thing is, it's not like it has a 40% chance by itself. It has a 40% chance, but so might 20 other cards or so. So you have to keep that in mind. Not sure how to describe that very clearly, sorry.
November 13, 2013 3:33 p.m.
No, Dallie's correct. He has a ~40% chance of drawing at least one Dark Ritual in his opening hand. That means he has a ~60% chance not to draw it. Since each game should be independent, that means he has a .620 chance of not drawing it in 20 games, which is less than 1%. Possible, but highly unlikely.
November 13, 2013 3:37 p.m.
I stand corrected then. I forgot about the 20 games part.
November 13, 2013 3:48 p.m.
Image is now showing correctly and I have succesfully had a Dark Ritual in my opener for playtests today.
Maybe the missing image that needed to be updated had something to do with it.
Dallie says... #2
The problem wasn't existing by sampling 10 opening hands using the "Draw hand" function.
November 13, 2013 2:52 p.m.